An August case is only a theory. Still, the following quarterbacks have obvious routes into the race.
Josh Allen
A collapsed pocket is not necessarily a dead play when Allen has the ball. He can throw through trouble or simply run away from it. Buffalo's record supplies the headline; red-zone touchdowns and turnovers fill in the detail.
Lamar Jackson
Defences can prepare for Jackson all week and still lose track of him on third down. His rushing adds something that most quarterbacks simply cannot match. If Baltimore wins its division and Jackson delivers in the Ravens' biggest games, he will be difficult to leave off many ballots.
Joe Burrow
Burrow can produce the sort of passing numbers that force him into this conversation. Health is the obvious question after several interrupted seasons. Cincinnati also needs those numbers to turn into wins. A huge stat line on a middle-of-the-pack team is a tougher sell than the same performance from a top AFC seed.
Patrick Mahomes
Betting on Mahomes needs little explanation, but reputation alone will not earn another trophy. Voters are assessing 2026, not his career. Kansas City's record, his passing efficiency and the Chiefs' results against leading AFC teams will do most of the talking.
Justin Herbert and Drake Maye
Herbert and Maye sit in an interesting part of the board. They are established enough to be taken seriously, yet a step forward from either player could still feel new. Maye came painfully close in the 2025 vote. Herbert has the physical tools and now needs a season where team success matches his individual play.