US Presidential Election 2028 Odds

The 2028 White House race has a date in the diary, Tuesday 7 November, but there's a long way to go before voters know who'll be on the ballot. That's why the first thing to look at in our politics betting markets is the heading above the odds. On this page at BetVictor Ireland, the US presidential election 2028 odds are on the individual who takes the White House. You can also check the price for a party to win it, even while that party is still choosing its nominee. Once the candidates are in place, follow their routes through the states. On the map they'll be using in 2028, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are worth 44 electoral votes between them.

The winner market is the one with individual names. You may see JD Vance and Marco Rubio on the same list as Jon Ossoff, Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Being priced up means there are odds on that person winning. It doesn't tell you whether they will run, make it through the nomination race or appear on the general election ballot.

To see who's favourite, look for the shortest price on the list. Come back after a round of primaries and the order could look different. Someone near the top can fall back if they've spent weeks campaigning in a state and come away with fewer delegates than expected. Check the market terms if you want to know how a withdrawal affects an outright bet.

Our 2028 US presidential election Winning Party market gives you a price on the party outcome. Say two Democrats are still competing for the nomination. A bet on one of them to win the presidency depends on that person winning in November. A Democrat selection in Winning Party can still win if the other candidate takes the nomination and goes on to win the election.

There's room for the two markets to look quite different at the same time. One Republican could be shorter than every individual Democrat while the Democrats are shorter in Winning Party. Several names from the same party can be in the running, and each person's price is on their own route to the White House.

Say a candidate wins the first primary by a few points. The headline might make it sound as if they're on their way to the White House, but the question is how many delegates they picked up. The same goes for the runner-up, who can also come away with delegates if the contest's rules allow it. Bigger groups of delegates are up for grabs in some states than in others.

The nomination is the outcome you're following when you see Democratic or Republican nominee odds. Parties use the results of primaries and caucuses in the process of choosing their candidate. The delegates have a role in the nomination process around the conventions. Whoever comes through still has a general election campaign ahead.

Circle 7 November 2028 if you're following from Ireland. You can expect a late night, with polls closing at different times as the evening moves across the US. The date comes from the four-year election cycle and the rule that puts Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

You may hear a broadcaster call the race before breakfast. From there, the electors still have to cast their votes in December and Congress has to count them in January. The next presidential term starts on 20 January 2029.

The 50 states and Washington, DC, have 538 electoral votes between them. A majority is 270. In most states, whoever comes first in the statewide vote gets all its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska can split theirs. Each gives two to its statewide winner, with another vote awarded separately for each congressional district.

If you'd coloured all of Nebraska red in 2024, you'd have missed one of Kamala Harris's electoral votes. Donald Trump took the state, including two of its three congressional districts. The second district went to Harris, so she took one electoral vote and Trump got the other four.

Now try the same exercise with Pennsylvania. In 2028, the winner takes all 19 electoral votes, whether they win by a handful of ballots or ten points. It's possible to pile up votes in other states and still miss out on the presidency. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had nearly 2.9 million more votes than Trump across the country. On the electoral tally, Trump finished on 304 and Clinton on 227.

What if it's 269 each? If nobody has an electoral majority, the decision goes to the House of Representatives. It chooses from the top three on the electoral count, with one vote per state delegation. It's another reason to read the settlement terms if a race is too close to call.

Look at the 2024 map and put Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes alongside Michigan's 15 and Wisconsin's 10. Donald Trump won all three and finished on 312. Kamala Harris ended on 226. Switch those three states while holding the rest of that result in place and Harris would have reached 270 exactly. It's one way to see how a handful of state results can change the whole race.

A candidate could be up three points in a national poll and still have work to do in the states that would get them to 270. If a new poll comes out for one of those states, look at when the pollsters spoke to voters. Did they ask anyone who was registered, or did they narrow it down to people they thought were likely to turn out? Two polls of the same state can tell different stories.

Add up the two main candidates' totals for 2016 and you'll get 531. The other seven votes went to people besides Trump and Clinton. Trump's win in 2024 was his second, with Biden's term in between. The gap between Trump's terms makes no difference to the two-election limit under the 22nd Amendment.

Say you've got a fiver at 4/1. If it wins, that's €20 plus your €5 stake back. Switch the odds display to decimals and the same price reads 5.00. A shorter price means a smaller return for that same stake. A new price on the page applies to new bets, so look at the accepted price on your slip.

Look under Politics in the A-Z on the BetVictor Ireland sportsbook to find the 2028 presidential markets. If you're trying to find a name below the first few shown here, open the full list. When you add a price, look at the heading on the slip as well as the name. The same candidate may appear under more than one heading as the campaign develops.

If you're following elections closer to home, our Irish general election odds cover a system where voters rank local candidates. Our UK general election odds focus on seats in the House of Commons. For the US presidency, the count to follow is the Electoral College.