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Jon Rahm – (21/10)
Jon Rahm wins the 2023 Spanish Open.
It’s not a revolutionary headline, granted, but here we are.
Currently ranked number three in the world, the home hero arrives at Club de Campo attempting to win his fourth Spanish Open in five starts. Having won at the Centro Nacional de Golf in 2018, he followed up at this track, winning the inaugural event by five shots in 2019 and again in 2022, this time by six.
Early season form was outstanding, winning three out of his first five events, including the American Express and at Riviera, splitting those with a third place in Phoenix. Although on the PGA Tour, those efforts tie in very nicely with the host of desert form provided by previous winners of this event, although it probably isn’t needed if you then win the Masters and tie for second place at The Open.
Rahm looked out of sync post-Hoylake and through the FedEx play-offs, but the 28-year-old again looked hungry during the closing stages of the BMW PGA at Wentworth and confirmed he was back to his best with an undefeated display at the Marco Simone club.
This week’s hot favourite recorded two wins and two draws in his four Ryder Cup matches, taking Scottie Scheffler to the line in the opening singles game, and was very un-Rahm like soon after the event.“I still cannot believe how amazing The Ryder Cup was – it’s hard to put into words. Thank you to everyone involved in organizing such a magnificent event.”
In fine mental shape, there is nothing that is negative in his claim to the throne again and, whilst Justin Rose is the main danger according to the OWGR and the books, the main hope of getting Rahm beaten is the player himself.
Rahm went off at around 2/1 in 2021, only to disappoint in 17th, looking far from the happy chappy he appears this week. That was, of course, soon after getting tonked by the US at Whistling Straits, and that emotion has turned very much on its head.
Whether that prompts anyone to play at around the same price is an individual decision. The price is Tiger-like, but so are his claims.
When Rahm was beaten here, the play-off was decided between two of his compatriots, cementing the stronghold that home players have on this event. Indeed, there isn’t a European national championship that has such a stronghold from the home players.
If playing this 100 times, I suspect Rahm would win closer to 40 times rather than 30, but I’d rather watch him win than try to either back or lay.
Instead, I’ll take a few players for a top-10 finish, banking a profit if any of them land a place on the front page.
Antoine Rozner – Top 10 (4/1)
Antoine Rozner makes perfect sense as a three-time winner on tour, two of those in the desert.
Preferring to look to Rafa Cabrera-Bello rather than Rahm as a guide, Rozner’s win in Qatar and in Dubai are bang on the money, whilst form in Mauritius (beat Alfredo Gracia-Herdia, 6th here in 2022) does no harm.
The 30-year-old Frenchman missed just one cut in his first 18 starts, listing top six finishes in Singapore, Thailand and at the SDC Championship, an event that saw Adri Arnaus (runner-up here to RCB) finish in second place.
Things went awry through the Irish Open, Wentworth and at home, but he at least showed something at the disrupted Alfred Dunhill Links last weekend, finishing 10th after just nine birdies and just one bogey through Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. You don’t do that without being able to scramble, a facet that looks vital this week judged on the high rankings achieved by both previous winners here.
Rozner has won in Spain on the Challenge Tour and posted a 3rd and 15th at Valderrama. I’ll trust he’s back in some form, and land the main bet.
Ewen Ferguson – Top 10 (5/1)
I keep going back to the Ewen Ferguson train, but he looks another to be overpriced on his best form and hints of better to come at the end of a long season.
Another winner in Qatar, this time scrambling like a demon through tough final day conditions, the Scot should be on three DPWT wins, and would be bar an electric putting display from Oliver Wilson in Denmark.
Still, that effort fits in nicely with the best of 2023, reading 3rd in the same SDC Championship, 4th at Steyn City, just behind a pair of fancied long-shots this week (Bachem and Du Plessis), 8th in the Netherlands, 4th at The Belfry, 12th at the Scottish Open and 10th in France, where he co-led after three rounds.
For the majority, Fergy’s driver is behaving accurately whilst the putter is also keeping him there. It’s a matter of it all coming together and it may well be here, in a country in which he performed consistently well at Challenge Tour level and has a latest top-10 at the Mallorca Golf Open.
Jeff Winter – Top 10 (8/1)
Talking of Mallorca, row in with 2021 Malloca champion Jeff Winther at a large-looking 8/1 for a top-10 and 10/3 for a top-20.
I don’t mind his runner-up at the Tshwane Open behind former Spanish champion Charl Schwartzel, though whether form from seven years ago matters, who knows? Either way, his best form includes results in Qatar (third behind Spaniard Jorge Campillo) and Abu Dhabi (6th, five places behind RCB), both enough to make him of interest.
Victory at Mallorca came via a one-shot beating of two Spaniards (Campillo and long-hitting Pep Angles) and his best results in 2023 suggest there is something still burning bright.
A closing 8th at The Belfry was promising, even if it took a few weeks to show that again. This time was just three weeks ago in France, where he bettered his 2022 top-10 with another closing effort and a final round 65. That runner-up was the 35-year-olds best finish since his win, and he proved his well-being with an eight-birdie blitz at St. Andrews last week, followed by the same amount at Kingsbarns on a soggy Monday.
A flying final round 63 here in 2019 saw him finish inside the top five, whilst he missed the cut on the number on his return. Capable of going low, as demonstrated by his pair of 62s at the island course, he looks back to his best and easily able to match his sixth place finish on return to the winning venue, or his third place in Gran Canaria.
