Blackjack Odds Explained: Everything You Need To Know

Blackjack Odds Explained

Blackjack Odds are the chances, or probability, of winning any given hand at the table. There are a variety of features to consider when calculating these odds, including the rules, the type of bet placed, and the skill of the player. In this article, we take a look into all areas of Blackjack odds, while also sharing ways to improve them.  

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Table of Contents:   

• What is the House Edge and How Does it Affect My Odds of Winning Blackjack?
• Blackjack Dealer Up Card Odds  
• Blackjack Player’s Hand Value Odds  
• Can I Improve my Blackjack Odds?   
• Frequently Asked Questions About Blackjack Odds

For the sake of simplicity, we will be focusing mainly on standard variations of Blackjack in this guide. However, unique versions such as Quantum Blackjack Plus and Free Bet Blackjack can all be found in the BetVictor catalogue!  

What is the House Edge and How Does it Affect My Odds of Winning Blackjack?

To start this section, we have to explain what the ‘House Edge’ actually means. In short, it’s the advantage that the casino has over players, which is how the house makes its money over time. When looking at a Blackjack odds table, the house edge usually sits around the 0.50% to 2.00% mark, depending on how skilful the player is.  

So, how does this impact your blackjack odds? The house edge represents the total percentage of all wagered funds that the casino expects to win over time. If we’re using the 0.50% house edge as an example, that means that 99.50% will be redistributed to players. Of course, this changes when playing games of Blackjack with more unique rulesets, such as Mega Fire Blaze Blackjack or Lightning Blackjack, for example.  

The house gets their advantage due to the player acting first. If they bust, regardless of what the dealer does, the player will still lose their bet. Overall, players have a 42.22% chance of beating the dealer, with 8.48% of hands resulting in a tie and the other 49.10% being a loss.  

Blackjack Dealer Up Card Odds

The face-up card shown by the dealer can give players an insight into the strength of their hand. Statistically, the worst card that the dealer can have is an Ace, while the best-case scenario for the player is a 5, as it’s most likely to bust. Here’s a table to help players visualise the chances of the dealer going bust, based on their face-up card!  

As you can see, the odds of winning Blackjack by the dealer busting are significantly decreased when they hold an Ace. This is because the Ace is worth both 1 and 11, giving the dealer multiple chances to create a hand that is worth 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21.   

Blackjack Player’s Hand Value Odds

Now, while some hands typically perform much better than others, the probability of winning a round of Blackjack depends on what the dealer is showing. Even if the player has a total of 20, the odds will change drastically based on whether the dealer has a 6, or an Ace, for example.  

With that being said, below is a Blackjack odds chart of the player going bust if they choose to hit, based on the total value of their starting hand. Of course, the lower this percentage, the better:  

It should also be noted that for anything 17 or above, you wouldn’t hit, but we’ve placed the probabilities in there for reference. 

Another interesting statistic is that if your first card is an Ace, you have roughly a 30% chance of the second card being a 10, making a Blackjack. This is due to the fact that most of the cards in the deck are worth 10, which is why the busting probability jumps sharply from 0.00% to 31.00% in the Blackjack odds table above.  

Can I Improve my Blackjack Odds?

After players have worked out their Blackjack odds for various scenarios, they can take a look into potentially improving them. How exactly is this possible? Let’s take a look!  

Blackjack Probability Explained

In terms of Blackjack odds, there is an optimal way to play each scenario, taking both your hand and the dealer’s face-up card into consideration. This is known as ‘Basic Strategy’, which has been formulated by simulating millions of Blackjack hands, in order to find the best possible actions for every possible outcome.  

Basic strategy is the simplest and quickest way for players to get the Blackjack best odds, using a chart to figure out the optimal action. Here are a few rules that basic strategy suggests: 

• Always double a hard 11 – Basic strategy says that you should always double a hard eleven (A hand that totals 11 without an ace) unless the dealer has an Ace as their face-up card.  

• Don’t hit a hard 12 against a 4, 5, or 6 – While having a total of 12 isn’t the best hand, it’s recommended to stand if the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6. As touched on earlier in the Blackjack odds table, these are the most likely to bust.  

• Never take insurance – Insurance is a side bet that players can take when the dealer has an Ace. According to basic strategy, alongside other Blackjack payout odds, this is not a favourable bet for the player.  

It’s worth mentioning that basic strategy can be applied to a handful of Blackjack variants, including titles with unique rules, such as Lightning Blackjack and Mega Fire Blaze Blackjack! And whilst it’s useful in helping novices in unfamiliar situations, it can’t guarantee a win. 

Frequently Asked Questions About Blackjack Odds