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It’s a funny ol’ game.
Every week 150+ players go to work, trying to become the one getting that little dimpled ball into the hole in the least amount of shots. As one Twitter wag put it, golf is the only sport where you win by doing the least work.
Players might play six hours apart from each other for two of the four days, facing completely different conditions. And yet, at the end, for most of the time, the result makes sense.
At last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, maiden Ben Griffin looked on his way to victory as he stood at 20-under after three rounds. Alas, two bogeys down the stretch saw him tie with four others at 18 under the card, all eventually losing the play-off to a 45 foot birdie putt by one of the weakest putters on tour.
Below average he may be with the putter, but with new stud and huge driver Ludvig Aberg by his side in the decider, the long-hitting champion, Luke List, confirmed the thoughts of 2017 winner Cameron Champ.
“If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scoreable course,” Champ said. “So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”
See, it makes sense!
This week, the Fall Series continues with the third in seven Autumn events, eventually deciding the fortunate 125 that keep their tour cards for 2024. The pressure looks likely to build as we get past the Zozo Championship in two weeks time but, for now, here’s a chance for the less driver-heavy player to thrive.
Tom Kim (12/1)
The Shriners Children’s Open is missing stalwart Patrick Cantlay but instead boats the man who frustrated him down the stretch last year and provided a winning one-and-done, in Tom Kim, as well as the afore-mentioned Aberg and LPGA tour player Lexi Thompson, who provides a nice piece of news but has absolutely no chance, and is underpriced even at four figures.
Kim looks a decent favourite in a field lacking strength in depth.
Awesome when shooting 61 on his way to the Wyndham by five shots in August last year, he was extremely convincing when beating course legend Cantlay by three strokes just eight weeks later.
Since then, the 21-year-old has solidified his place in the top 20 of the world with nine top-10 finishes and a recent run that includes finishing in sixth place at the Scottish Open, joint runner-up at Hoylake, 24th/10th and 17th through the FedEx play-offs, 18th at Wentworth after a month off and a most-recent sixth at former Ryder Cup venue Le Golf National. Impressive results given many of these would have been new territory for him.
TPC Summerlin requires a player that knows where the ball is going off-the-tee (no rip-it-and-find-it here) as well as being sharp with the irons. Kim has it all, ranking eighth for driving accuracy on the PGA Tour, fourth for wedge approaches (125-150 yards) and 13th for tee-to-green.
He’s hard to oppose on everything we know, looks a better value favourite than many we’ve had this year, and is hard to argue against should anyone want to save at the current 12/1.
Tom Hoge (35/1)
I find it slightly easier to be against Aberg who came off his Ryder Cup debut to launch a late attack in Jacksonville last week. For the moment, the Swede’s M.O looks to be similar to that of Champ (although already different class) and he probably has no real need to tee it up this week given he has his card tied up via the PGA Tour University Ranking.
Aberg, too, brings Wyndham form – linked by Webb Simpson, Martin Laird and Kevin Na amongst others – and bombers can thrive here – Bryson DeChambeau won in 2018, Matt Wolff has twice been runner-up – but he can’t keep going at this level, can he?
Although cut to 33/1, I’m of the view there is still a little bit of juice in Tom Hoge at the price and he remains the best bet of the week at anything over 30s.
The 34-year-old struggled to break into the top 100 until 2022, some 11 years after turning pro, although he led the Wyndham through 36 holes in 2015, but 2022 was a true breakthrough season.
After running-up in the desert at the American Express (see Cantlay, Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson for links) he broke his duck with a two-shot victory at another West Coast track, Pebble Beach.
That seemed the catalyst for a launch onto the next level through the year, finishing 14th in Pheonix, tied-fourth at the 3M Open (Wolff a previous winner, DeChambeau and Laird runners-up on separate occasions), fifth at the Tour Championship and a best-ever major finish of ninth place at Southern Hills.
2023 form dropped off after an opening third at the Tournament of Champions (Kim 5th) and at Sawgrass in far higher grade, but he showed bits at Twin Cities (T20) and at the BMW Championship, where he finished fast to finish 21st, but outside of the progression to the end-of-season money pit.
After a month, the man from Fargo warmed up with a respectable, if not spectacular 71/71 at the K-Club, kicking on after with a 14th at tree-laden Wentworth and 13th last week at the Sanderson Farms.
Hoge’s eye-catching display at only his fifth outing on the DPWT saw him finish inside the top-15 despite being 39th at halfway, whilst he again closed quickly after ranking 91st last Thursday night.
Top-five for approach play and top-11 for tee-to-green across the last fortnight is perfect for the test this week, particularly given his course record of six cuts from seven starts, including a progressive last three years of 4/14/24. Indeed, a pair of eagles and a bogey-free round saw him lead last year’s event with an opening 63.
With irons and putter hot – third for birdies, ninth for par-4s last week – Hoge’s chance reads obvious to all. Except the odds-makers.
Andrew Putnam (35/1)
Others to catch the eye this week include solid putters JT Poston and Andrew Putnam.
Despite my love for the real JT (who won at Deere Run as another one-and-done) he may just need the run given his two wins have been close behind recent encouraging efforts – a shame as wins at the Wyndham and John Deere are excellent correlations.
Instead I’ll row along with another 34-year-old in the shape of former Pepperdine All-American Putnam.
Long-known as a hot putter, his win and runner-up at the birdie-fest that is the Barracuda Championship reads well for ‘conditions’ form, as does his form at the Pheonix Open (7th) and American Express (10th and 14th), both in the desert.
Whilst he has not yet matched the runner-up finishes posted in three of the last four years, Putnam has three top-10s in ’23, at the Sony, Memorial (Cantlay, DeChambeau, Jim Furyk) and BMW Championship, being another that just missed out on a ticket to East Lake.
Putnam can’t compete when the emphasis is on length, so concentrate on the efforts on the more classic, thinkers tracks as well as course form of three top-20 finishes in six starts, including 11th and 12th over the last two years.
Erik Van Rooyen (100/1)
Although with nothing like the course form of those mentioned above, Erik Van Rooyen is threatening to do something big, and, currently the final man with a 2024 card, knows he needs it.
We tend to get sucked into the fact that the South African relies on his driver and whilst that isn’t necessarily a hindrance here, his record suggests he can compete well when patience is required, as well as when the foot off the gas.
The previously-mentioned Putnam recorded his silver medal at the Barracuda when behind Van Rooyen, whilst Summerlin fans Adam Schenk and Joel Dahmen lend a little more to that result.
Backing that up, EVR has top 10 finishes across the desert in Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, whilst top finishes at Sawgrass, Morocco and Joburg suggest he has the nous when required.
So to recent form where a top six finish at Tahoe Mountain was the easy highlight of a rough period, a time that changed after a month off after Sedgefield.
On his return, EVR has now made four successive cuts with ease, finishing top-10 at Crans, 16th at the K-Club, 30th at Silverado and 16th last week in Mississippi. At each one, his long game appeared in fine shape, averaging 10th for approaches and 20th for tee-to-green across the last four events.
The short game leaves something to be desired at times, but he’s put up positive putting figures in two out of those four, and it’s quite easy to see that, on an above average week, he’s capable of playing his way around here, especially as his three standard professional wins have been in 16, 18 and 19 under, with Barracuda the most obvious of birdie-fests.
Other Markets
Adam Hadwin must go well again at a course he loves and appeals for Top Canadian at around 2/1, but with two from close to the top, however justifiable, I’ll look further down for the final selection.
Chesson Hadley has been putting up some decent rounds of late, and is another with a terrific record here, but he’s now only 66/1 in the outrights, and may be better chanced for first-round leader at a touch bigger.
