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Matthieu Pavon 35/1
Matt Jordan 55/1
Nick Bachem 66/1
The 26th running of the Qatar Masters sees the return to Doha for the second consecutive year, a run of just two events at neighbouring Education City interrupting the players long love affair with the desert track.
Formally held as part of the early-season desert swing, it’s unusual to see the event form such significance at the tail-end. Indeed, as the final full event of the season, many of this week’s field will look to gain their place inside the top 116 of the Rolex rankings and their card for 2024. Even more vital are potential places at the limited-field Nedbank and the end-of-season DP World Tour Championship in mid-November.
In this part of the world, there is rarely a diversion from the more pleasant weather forecasts and, once again, the course’s defence will be all about the wind. Open enough for long drivers to attack, last year’s winner Ewen Ferguson instead took the short-game route, proving the hardiest of the bunch on a final day that saw just two players break 70, both by a single shot.
The Scot’s total of 7-under was the lowest ever recorded in the event and I’d expect this week’s total to be closer to the mid to high teens scored by many of the winners from 2001 to 2018.
Whatever the score, it seems certain that there will be a links influence in the history of the contenders.
Previous two-time champions Branden Grace (twice), Adam Scott and Paul Laurie were all great exponents of wind play in open/Open conditions, whilst Chris Wood, Thomas Bjorn and Eddie Pepperrell do nothing to negate the thought.
Alvaro Quiros (winner and twice runner-up here) has a whole race-card full of desert form alongside the renowned links in Sicily. As a plus, he also finds himself alongside Sergio Garcia, Jorge Campillo, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Nacho Elvira as Spaniards that have thrived here. To that point, form over the last two weeks has to be relevant, with Ferguson the latest to cement the relationship between the two locations.
It’s tough to rule out anyone at the top and my preference was going to be last week’s headline Adrian Otaegui. It just didn’t happen on Payday last weekend and having looked as if he’d timed his defence to perfection, just couldn’t live with the two bombers at the top. The fear is it will happen again and he’s shortened up a bit too much now.
Instead, I’ll row in on the recent Spanish Open winner, Matthieu Pavon at not much shorter than he was 12 months ago, when a maiden.
The Frenchman was the top pick last year after a solid bank of correlative form but comes here just two weeks after his four-shot romp in Madrid and a closing top 10 in San Roque.
The 30-year-old had been on the verge of breaking his duck at both Gran Canaria and Portugal in 2021, whilst he recorded top-10s at both Kenya and in Scandinavia last season, the former a great guide to this through the defending champion, Jorge Campillo, Justin Harding and Guido Migliozzi.
2023 started with three top-10 finishes in four starts whilst he finished 7th and 17th in back-to-back events at driver-heavy Munich and in Himmerland (a venue that has seen Thomas Bjorn and Ferguson win and come a close runner-up respectively).
Unable to continue that form, he found it again at the Dunhill Links before scooting home at Club De Campo, impressing in all-the-way fashion.
It would have been easy to expect him to then down tools, but a 68/69 weekend saw Pavon come from 30th at halfway to finish alongside Otaegui and Thorbjorn Olesen, another player sure to be well-fancied this week.
Long enough off the tee to compete here, his short game sees him rank in third for scrambling and in the top 30 for around-the-green, a stats for which he averages around 13th over his last three starts. Combine that with putting average of 6/4/11, in modern terms 22/1/4 for strokes-gained and here is another player (like Ferguson did last season) that can win his second event in quick succession and nab one of the automatic PGA Tour cards.
When talking of long drivers, Nick Bachem has come to the fore, now ranked in the top five for distance off the tee but is so much more than just a bomber.
It would be easy to see him as a player that dominates with length, and his win at 7700-yard Steyn City makes it easy to see it that way, but recent form suggests he has the tactical game to compete if needed to.
Early career form has the 24-year-old as part of the victorious German side that won the 2020 European Amateur Team Championship at linksy Hilversumsche Golf Club, a side that contained last week’s close runner-up Matti Schmid. Not long after, Bachem finished runner-up to his compatriot at the European Amateur, an event that saw Schmid win his second consecutive title.
Take that formline even further and Schmid was beaten into third place at Steyn City in 2022, a year before Bachem ran up a sequence of T23 (India), T52 (Kenya, in 2nd place at halfway), T18 at St.Francis Links (Ferguson and Rozner sharing third place), pre-empting his four shot victory from good yardsticks Hennie Du Plessis and Zander Lombard.
The driving prowess continued this year with a 35th in Himmerland (third after day one) and fourth place at the Czech Masters, tying with Ludvig Aberg (runner-up at the 2021 European Amateur) and Robert MacIntyre (form links with Ferguson) in an event always dominated by length and home to Thomas Pieters, a player with a bank of desert form.
That was enough to think the three-time PGA Golf Tour winner was a force to be reckoned with over the distance, but he then finished in seventh at the Irish Open, 20th in France and 25th at the Spanish Open before last week’s improved event.
2nd, 5th and 5th over the first three rounds, Bachem wasn’t at his best during the final round, caused mainly by a wayward driver, something that may not matter too much on the wider, less-punishing Doha fairways. He did impress with a long bogey-save after going out-of-bounds on the hardest hole on the course (10th) before a pin-point pitch on the very next hole led to a sub-three-foot birdie.
Whilst usually I’d want some course form around here, I’m leaning against the majority on this one. With this event formally taking place in the first three months of the year, relative rookies have not had the time to make themselves part of the tour proper. Now, with 23 under his belt and, of course, the win, there is more substance to his claims, even as a newcomer to a track that really should suit down to the ground.
Matt Jordan may not have happy memories of Doha, but there is no question that the course and conditions scream his name.
Like 2018 champion Eddie Pepperrell, the 27 year-old has nothing but links in his junior and amateur career, winning the St. Andrews Links Trophy and Lytham Trophy and representing GB & Ire at the 2017 Walker Cup, against the best US side ever assembled.
In his first year on tour, the Wirral-born player contended at Hillside before finishing 15th before a host of relevant finishes littered his card.
5th, 4th and 17th in Denmark, 25th, 14th, 5th and 34th across the tours in Portugal and 13th at Ras Al Khaimah read well enough for past form, before 2023 sees early season desert form of T34/T20/T19 (Ras again)and a series of eight consecutive cuts, the best results being top 20 finishes at the KLM, Scandinavian Mixed and in Himmerland. Top that with a top-10 when under pressure at his ‘home’ Open and it’s clear enough to see what Jordan needs to be seen at his best.
Although slightly disappointing at both the Dunhill Links and in France, four of his seven rounds were in the 60s, before he found a bit more at Sotogrande last week.
Improving through the rounds, from 75th, through 44th, 30th and 13th, Jordan again found positive strokes from tee-to-green, progressing over the last three weeks from +3, +4 and +7 strokes over the field.
Last season, neither Jordan nor playing partner, the now hugely-improved Adrian Meronk, couldn’t quite cope with tough conditions as they led into Sunday. However, with his clear predilection for links, and finding top form, this could very much be where Jordan finally breaks his maiden on tour.
