Previously known as the Million Dollar Challenge (who knows what that is worth today?) the Gary Player Country Club hosts the 41st running of its invitational event, progressing from an initial 12 man field to the modern day 70, or thereabouts.
Given the conditions of entry, it is no surprise to read the catalogue of top class champions, ranging from Seve to Faldo, from Sergio to Westwood, and all those in-between. Once again, the event is a chance for those on the cusp of the DP World top-50 to confirm their place in next week’s seasonal decider, the DP World Tour Championship. It’s hard to make a solid case for players currently outside of the top-65, given the task ahead and the result that would need to fall their way. It’s not impossible, though, and there are always the ten PGA Tour cards to chase. Currently, those final three cards are held by Jorge Camillo, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ryo Hisatsune. Joost Luiten, Marcel Siem, Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith might shake them up with a career result, however.
A solid tee-to-green game is vital around this long, 7500-odd yard track, and whilst the yardage may prompt the view that distance is all, of the top-five in driving distance from 2017 to 2019, only Joost Luiten finished on the front page of the leaderboard. That changed after a three-year hiatus with runner-up Ryan Fox and top-10 finished Rasmus Hojgaard both smacking the ball a long way off the tee. Significantly, however, both were in the top four in driving accuracy.
Smash it miles, sure, but avoid the deep rough, and ensure either approaches are solid or the scrambling is solid enough to avoid bogies. Any less and it’s a fairly early goodnight and no hope of winning a tough tournament at around 12-under.
History is always useful when off to the Southern Hemisphere. Whilst there is a very long line of links form in most of the winners over the years, it should pay mainly to concentrate on results since 2016, when open to more than 30 players.
Alex Noren won on debut in that first 72-player tournament but Branden Grace, Lee Westwood and Tommy Fleetwood have since proven that event form rules the roost.
The South African came into the 2017 championship off course form of 3/4/20, Westwood won his third version of the challenge after three appearances at the event including sixth place the year before. Meanwhile, Fleetwood had form of 10/14/21/14 before winning in 2019 and 2022.
The four players that have shared the most recent four trophies have also come into the event in decent form, every one listing a win or top-six finish in their previous six outings, with Fleetwood (twice), Grace and even Marc Leishman (in 2015) having top 6 finishes at The Open in the same year.
The 2023 running looks as strong as ever with the field boasting a total of 40 DPWT wins between them. Alongside US Ryder Cup star and six-time PGA Tour winner Max Homa – a debutant but ranked eight places above course specialist Fleetwood, at #7 in the world.
The Californian must have a chance purely on class but if we go on history, the field is narrowed down quite easily to no more than a dozen.
Taking those players that come into the event satisfying the ‘current form’ criteria of a top six finish in their last half-dozen starts leaves us with just over 30 names to opt from. Narrow that down to those with a top-10 at the course and the list suddenly reduces to 10. players such as Justin Rose omitted as his British Masters effort was his seventh event from today, and his Gary Player form is outside of the 72-man events.
Fleetwood is the most obvious name on the card and surely has every chance of landing the hat-trick, a feat never achieved before at any stage of this long-standing championship. While David Frost, Nick Price and Ernie Els have won the event three times in its various guises, the man from Southport would make history, something his fans would say is richly deserved.
Much of Tommy’s career has been discussed numerous time and he’s back here after 10 finishes on the front page. Chances at five PGA Tour events this year, a play-off defeat in Canada and a Major set of places reading 33/T18/T5/T10, the latter being his third top-10 at The Open in his last four outings.
The affable 32-year-old is often a hard watch for punters and it is of note that his two wins have come from off the pace. Six behind in 2019, he repeated the late charge three years later when coming from seventh place to overcome overnight leader Rasmus Hojgaard. However, despite being a key player at the Ryder Cup in late September, Fleetwoood’s only outing since was the Dunhill Links when buffeted around in (for him) favourable conditions but recording some of his worst figures of the season. He’s a natural and worthy jolly, but had more recent outings before both previous wins.
Ryan Fox – 14/1
Ryan Fox continues to improve, even at 36 years of age. The Kiwi is a strange one, looking far more impressive to the eye than his figures sometimes suggest. However, current form is very strong. He can boast of a third-place finish at the K-Club followed by an impressive victory at Wentworth, beating the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland.
Not only is that form up there with the very best on offer, but amongst the correlations both Alex Noren and Danny Willett are recent winners here and in Surrey, whilst Ernie Els and Westwood have won at the Gary Player and finished runner-up at Wentworth.
If we need more, Fox shrugged off a missed cut in France (although shot a second round 68) with a runner-up at the interrupted Dunhill Links, a year after beating Noren into third place, with McIlroy, Hatton et al behind. Oh yeah, and Willett, Grace and Westwood are past champions, and Fleetwood two-time runner-up.
For those three events (Links at which only St. Andrews stats were recorded), he’s ranked 15th, 9th and first for tee-to-green, improving his accuracy off the tee, something he needs to continue this week.
The selection has everything tied up – a place at the seasonal closer in Dubai at which he claimed a top-20 last year, place well inside the top-50 in the world, and his PGA card – and comes here with good memories having led after the first round last year before finishing just a shot behind the winner.
Through his early 30’s, Fox was one of the most frustrating players on the circuit, not always exploiting potential winning positions. In many ways Jordan Smith is that same character even if he continues to appeal where tee-to-green is a prerequisite.
Jordan Smith – 22/1 (EW)
Now exactly 30-years old, the Englishman has a bank of relevant form to back his claim of improving past his top-10 here last season and, with his place in Dubai secured, getting into the world’s top 50 for the first time.
Top six at the British Masters around Hillside and Walton Heath, Smith also brings top-10 finishes at Wentworth, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and the Dunhill Links to the fore. Add in victories at the well-known links correlation of the Portugal Masters (won by Westwood and 2022 BMW champion Shane Lowry) and the long European Open and the back-form case is clear.
The selection should have done a tad better when leading at the start of the final round in France but could not birdie any of the crucial par-5s throughout Sunday, a surprise given he ranks 6th for overall performance on the longer holes through the year.
That stat is backed up with a ranking of 63rd for distance off the tee, 15th for driving accuracy (and an overall 6th for off-the-tee), 25th for approaches, 4th in tee-to-green and 1st for greens-in-regulation.
Ignore the strange conditions surrounding this year’s Dunhill Links (for which he has previous finishes of fifth and 32nd) and Smith has made 12 from 12 cuts, stretching back to the beginning of June.
In that period, the Wiltshire-born player had entered the fourth round in the final group at both Green Eagle and K-Club, as well as being in the top-10 halfway through Himmerland.
Last time out, Smith continued his good form at the Qatar Masters, improving on his previous best finish at Doha by one place, his fifth place being the best since the French Open where he bettered his first for tee-to-green by also leading off-the-tee and approaches.
Stats site Tour Tips have Smith in the top 10 for total driving and greens-in-regulation over the last three months, and seemingly a creature of habit and repeating form in the same places, he represents value to make his presence known here this week. He knows he can improve on 2022 Nedbank rankings of top-20 for all his best attributes.
Robert MacIntyre is another with similar form to Smith and has to be considered even if he is now working with his third caddie of the year.
After an average weekend, the Ryder Cup rookie finished a shot behind the Englishman in Qatar but that was his best result since a trio of top four finishes in the Summer.
Courtesy of a final round 64, the Scot was the only one to get within sniffing distance of Rory McIlroy at his home Open, a week after disappointing in the final group at Himmerland, in turn seven events after throwing away the lead in Kenya.
Those losses aren’t a bad sign, given Fleetwood needed a lead into Sunday here, but they do require a look at the prices before committing.
Aaron Rai – 22/1 (EW)
Given the list of previous winners, I like the theme of the English to go very well here and Aaron Rai and Matt Wallace are both high on the list.
Both were prominent at the 2020 Scottish Championship, just a few weeks after Rai’s play-off victory over Fleetwood at the Renaissance Club in horrendous conditions.
It’s that constant tidy game that means Rai has risen to a best-ever world #61, finishing third in Canada, runner-up at Wentworth and ninth last time out in Qatar, where a final round 66 saw him leap up from outside the top 20.
That late push isn’t unusual, with recent late finishes including 67th to 21st at claustrophobic Japan, 60th to 28th at Napa, 68th to 12th at the traditional layout of Colonial and indeed 21st to 2nd in Virginia Water.
Prior to this year, Rai has victories at tree-lined Muthaiga, tricky Le Vaudreuil (where Fox won 2015), at the Andalucía matchplay, via a shot from Matt Fitzpatrick in Hong Kong and that best-ever victory in Scotland.
Top finishes at Galgorm, Sawgrass and top-30 finishes at some of the stronger PGA events all point to a player now settled at this level and ranking inside the top 70 of the FedEx lists courtesy of 34th off-the-tee and 23rd from tee-to-green.
Fourth for driving accuracy will stand him in good stead for the week on a course on which he was 8th in 2018 and 13th in his only other appearance (6th going into Sunday).
Matt Wallace – 40/1 EW
Matt Wallace this week seeks his 11th cut in a row, a far better run-in than when in fifth place here in 2018.
Despite six wins on the Alps Tour in 2016, the 33 year-old has never been easy to read, often spoiling his chances with a tempestuous burst on the course. However, when right he can give punters a good go at the prices, particularly considering his victories in Portugal, tight Indian Open, BMW International (from links men Olesen and Martin Kaymer) and in Denmark, from Lee Westwood and former Portugal champion Steven Brown.
Whilst that final victory may not have been at Himmerland, it took place at Thomas Bjorn’s home course Silkeborg, a track that offers tidy players a chance to run their tee-shots through forest.
The Englishman has only won a single event since those heady days of 2018, a victory from Nicolas Hojgaard in the Dominican Republic following hints in 2022 at the Dutch Open and a play-off defeat in Crans.
2023 has seen him return to more consistency in his game, the win coming straight after a top-10 at the Valspar and backed up in the second half of the year by a runner-up at the Czech Masters, a sixth at the Dunhill Links and last week’s top-10 in Qatar when he was another to come from way off the pace at the halfway point.
You can take your life in your hands with a player such as Wallace but at #55 in the Rolex rankings, he will know that a top finish should take him to Dubai.
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