Away from the main market, the standout wager looks to concern the best of the home contingent, and the ‘top South African’ list.
Branden Grace is rightly a warm favourite, but at 6/4 he looks plenty short enough now he is away from consistent competitive golf.
Course form is impressive, even finishing in the top 10 last year, but it’s questionable if the hunger is still there after concentrating on the LIV tour.
Winner of nine European or co-sanctioned events, his one win since 2020 has been on the exhibition tour, with his only three outings at this level this year resulting in a tied-18th in Saudi, 30th in Oman and a missed cut at The Open. Recent results on the limited-field LIV rotation have seen him finish 29th in Illinois and latterly 37th in the desert.
The 35-year-old may still have the class to beat his five rivals but offers no value to do so.
In terms of world rankings, all bar one of Grace’s rivals are ranked well outside the world’s top 100, with the likes of Hennie Du Plessis and Louis De Jager winless for several years, and Zander Lombard amazingly never having won a trophy at a professional level.
With Ockie Strydom’s recent form – 15 missed-cuts from his last 16 – highlighting the shock of his victory in Singapore, eyes automatically turn to the chances of Thriston Lawrence, now ranked 99th on the OWGR.
Thriston Lawrence Top African – 18/5
The 26-year-old has been a slow burner on the tour, being hyped up after winning the MENA Tour order of merit at 19. However, he has made up for that in recent years, winning on the DPWT at Joburg (by four shots from Lombard), Crans (beat Matt Wallace, an outright fancy for this week), the SA Open (at massively long Blair Atholl) and at the BMW Open, where he beat Joost Luiten, a player with three top-15s at this event.
Naturally, none of his rivals can match that four wins in two years, and Lawrence also brings in relevant top finishes in Kenya, Valderrama, and at the Irish Open. Indeed, the strong selection only missed out on the final list of possible outright bets by a narrow margin, that third place at the K-Club being seven outings ago rather than the required six.
Course form is fine, as you would expect from a classy player in lower grade, but his debut outing at the Nedbank last year resulted in him lying in third place going into Sunday, a poor final round seeing him finish in 15th.
Whilst form has plateaued slightly since the Irish Open, Lawrence has been inside the top-20 at the cut mark in Spain before lying 8th at halfway and 16th after three rounds in Doha.
For the 2023 season, the former South African Amateur and Lytham Trophy champion ranks 26th on the Race To Dubai, supported by his 36th for driving accuracy, 28th for greens-in-regulation and 19th for putting average, all plenty good enough to see him land either, or both, of the bets.
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