Whilst the great and good go chasing silly amounts of money and a huge trophy over in Dubai, there is no less an interesting event taking place at Sea Island, Georgia.
For much of the field, the RSM Classic is their last chance to grab one of the myriad of differing qualifications for their future.
As with the past couple of events, things have gotten a bit tetchy low down in the FedEx rankings with those around #125 looking to do enough to get full playing rights in 2024, a season in which the silliness of the wraparound seasons finally comes to an end.
Of course, for those with a better season in their hods, a place in the top 50 beckons and invites to all the signature events get signed off, whilst smaller, but no less vital moves can be made between #51 and #60, as well as those somewhere inside the top-150 but not quite at the 125. Clear?
Simply put, whilst there were hugely emotional victories for both Erik Van Rooyen and Camilo Villegas over the last fortnight, the key for punters was their ascent to full status, rising from #125 and #147, respectively. Of note was that, whilst both were big prices, they had forecast something good. Van Rooyen had been playing well for a while before landing our 80/1 bet, whilst the Columbian had finished just a couple behind the South African in Mexico.
It’s too tough to work out how these players will feel pre-event, and of much more interest as they go into day three and four, when laying and counter-betting should be fruitful.
For the pre-event selections, though, I’ll take three in-form selections.
Taylor Pendrith – 40/1 EW
Taylor Pendrith ticks a lot of boxes for me on the Sea Island course, being in-form and a fan of Bermuda greens.
The 32-year-old comes here ranking in the top two for tee-to-green play over the last few weeks, and inside the top 35 for ball-striking over the season. Recently, the two-time Canadian Tour winner has finished third in Nevada, 15th in Mexico and latterly eighth in Bermuda, with just one round in 12 played in more than 69 strokes.
The long-hitter is finding plenty of greens, much as he did when leading the field in that regard at the Rocket Mortgage and Barbasol during the Summer and it’s of serious interest that his latest run of form has been after suffering with injury throughout much of the past year.
“It felt like the old me,” said Pendrith after his recent third place at the Shriners, telling ScoreGolf about his struggles with his game and recent operation.
With a T23 at the 2020 US Open behind him, the selection returned a top-30 at this year’s PGA Championship, signs he was coming back to his best, a rating that ranks him higher than his PGA maiden status.
Twice runner-up at San Antonio, top 15 at Sawgrass, Sedgefield and New Orleans, 30th in a much classier Mexico field and last week’s top-10 confirm his liking for the grass type faced this week. He really should be going very well indeed.
Luke List – 60/1 EW
The mention of anything to do with Pete Dye or Davis Love III and I’m in on Luke List.
That is no less true this week on courses that have a DL3 influence even if not quite either Sawgrass Valley or Kinderlou Forest Club, Georgia, scenes of half the 38-year-old’s professional victories.
At anything over 50/1 that minor fact would make him of interest here, but he will be among the unique in this field, having won twice in his last 47 starts, the first being at Torrey Pines where he beat a stellar field to the Farmers Insurance trophy, before beating four players (including this week’s favourite Ludvig Aberg) in a five-man play-off in Mississippi.
Another that ranks very highly for current tee-to-green play, List is constantly finding shots off-the-tee, leading to chances on the short grass, with Bermuda absolutely no barrier to this sometimes streaky putter.
Course form reads nicely, making four of seven cuts, including finishes of fourth, 10th and 13th. Last year’s missed weekend came courtesy of a poor second round 73, his initial effort of 68 seeing him rank inside the top-50 and he comes here in far better form..
Now ranked #58 on the play-off list, the selection knows a good weekend will give him full privileges next season and he’s at the right course to write another story for the 2023 PGA Tour annual.
Matt NeSmith – 90/1 EW
Matt NeSmith is yet another PGA maiden, but he repeats form at certain courses and can do so again in Georgia.
At university in this part of the world, the 30-year-old beat Viktor Hovland in the 2019 Albertsons Boise Open, making quiet progress from a world ranking of 281 to a current 137.
That number, of course, pales into insignificance if the current FedEx #73 can lift himself inside the top-60 (or even 50) by Sunday night, a feat he is capable of now at a favoured course.
NeSmith has had four outings here, a debut 14th followed by 15th, 29th and last year’s missed cut, when coming into the event of a 59th in Houston. This time, the selection comes off three successive cuts, recording 25th at the Sanderson Farms (fourth after one round, 16th at halfway), 42nd at the Shriners (20th after three rounds) and 15th in Japan (top 20 for the entire weekend).
Those efforts are not out of the blue, the effort at Jackson following two previous top-20s in the event, and a run of T2/T8/T14 and 18 at Summerlin, all leading to the belief that he’ll continue his excellent form around Sea Island.
Over the last three events, NeSmith has averaged 31st for driving distance, 20th for accuracy off the peg and 10th for greens-in-regulation. A combination of those, local knowledge and desire to rise up the ranks is enough to have a serious look at anything approaching triple figures.
Kelly Kraft top 20 – 6/1
Take a look at Kelly Kraft in some of the side markets, a player that beat Patrick Cantlay at the US Amateur and ranked first and third in approaches in two of his last four events.
None of the 35-year-old’s three missed-cuts here are awful – a 66 and 65 mixed with 73 and 75 suggest inconsistency, but he arrives here after making six successive weekends, his best run of form for a very long time.
The midfield finishes at the Wyndham, Fortinet and the events already discussed put him in the mix here, a venue he remembers fondly, having married his wife on Sea Island.
18+ | begambleaware.org
*Prices subject to fluctuation and availability
