Joburg Open
Thriston Lawrence 16/1
Francesco Laporta 70/1
Australian PGA
Sean Crocker 40/1
Each-way double
Cam Smith (4/1) and Thriston Lawrence (16/1)
As one door opens….
Just a few days ago, we said ‘Goodbye’ to the DP World Tour 2022/23 season, crowning Rory McIlroy champion and seeing 10 players hop off to the PGA Tour, their apparent consistency rewarded with a chance to make hay on the other side of the pond.
Those that missed out haven’t had to wait long to start their pursuit in 2024, with two events this week heralding the start of a new season.
Whilst giving many of the lesser home players a chance to make a name for themselves, both the Joburg Open and Australian PGA have long been the opportunity for confirmed talent to make their mark early in the golfing year.
Golf changes surprisingly quickly, so perhaps not even the last five years can be considered relevant, but there are plenty of clues in recent winners at both.
In South Africa, burgeoning talents Dan Bradbury, Thriston Lawrence and JB Hansen have made their names at this event whatever the course, whilst over in Oz, confirmed wind players Cameron Smith and Adam Scott have dominated the last nine years, winning five events between them, Smith copping three of the last four.
We’ll start over at Houghton GC where the favourites look very beatable.
Dean Burmester should be much better suited to the enormous trial of Blair Atholl next week, whilst fellow LIV player Branden Grace hasn’t been the force of old for a while and did little over the last two weeks when back on the DPWT.
Much preferred from the top is the 2020 champion, Thriston Lawrence, who used an extremely interrupted contest to launch his career, several years after being talked about as the best of a home generation that would follow the Graces and Schwartzel’s of the world.
Sure, put an asterisk by his maiden DPWT victory given it consisted of just 36 holes and with Covid restrictions but it was merely the catalyst for his rise from #243 in the world to today’s place inside the top 100.
That progression has come via victories at Crans, an altitude course calling for a similar tee-to-green game, at his home Open and at the BMW International, where he stood firm with an impressive weekend of 66 and 69. That’s four wins in 50 starts and with back-up form in Kenya and Valderrama and at the Irish Open.
The 26-year-old very much follows last year’s one-two (Dan Bradbury and Sami Valimaki) in ranking in the top echelons for greens-in-regulation throughout the season, bouncing back after a poor putting display at the Nedbank with a top five finish at last week’s Tour Championship.
Sadly, that fifth place wasn’t quite enough to earn him that final PGA Tour card, but we have seen how motivated the likes of Adrian Meronk have been since left the Ryder Cup side, and even how many players have found their form under pressure of losing their full-time privileges.
With his driving accuracy averaging around 12th through Qatar, Nedbank and Dubai and his tee-to-green just as good (despite the limited fields) the selection will surely see this as an opportunity to stamp his mark on the rankings from the word ‘go’.
The only other player of interest is Franceso Laporta, winner of the 2019 Challenge Tour Order of Merit and who has come back to form at the same level through 2023.
Winner of three events at the lower level, the Italian came here last year having missed five cuts from seven starts, the other two events offering a paltry T55 and T68, but managed to record four rounds of 69 and under to finish 13th.
This time, the 33 year-old arrives after four top eight finishes in five starts, not an eternity away from a 14th place finish at the European Open in June.
Laporta tied in second behind JB Hansen in Dubai in 2021, a finish that saw 2015 Joburg Open champion Andy Sullivan end two shots further behind in fourth place, whilst sixth place at Wentworth in the same year demonstrates his ability on tree-lined courses that call for accuracy and greens.
Top that with another nice piece of form correlation – a runner-up finish in Dubai behind Antione Rozner, tying with Sulli and Matt Wallace, the latter beaten in a play-off at Crans behind the main selection this week, and it is a matter of whether those recent form lines give him renewed confidence that he can compete again at the level.
Strong from tee-to-green and with masses of experience in this part of the world, the Italian can give a run at a price.
Over in Australia, it’s hard to knock the favourite, Cam Smith.
The LIV star’s form here is clear, he is boosted by being the local hero, and he won the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews, a course described by the designer of Royal Queensland as the most obvious comparison.
Whilst we can’t be certain what his form on the ‘other’ side is worth, he has, at least, won twice. On top of that, the last few times he appeared in open competition, the 30-year-old finished top-35 at Augusta, top-10 at the US PGA , top five in the US Open and finished with another top-35 at Hoylake.
Whilst 4/1 needs a bit of looking at, Smith was around that price last year, before sauntering home by three shots, with Min Woo Lee the best of his more fancied rivals back in fifth place. After a month off, the favourite opened up with a 63 to lead the Hong Kong Open, disputing the front throughout before being beaten by a single shot. His play through the final few holes was a touch off, but he can be expected to be back on song for his home crowd and must take all the beating. I couldn’t quite back him as a single but the cross-double with Lawrence is tempting.
There are a raft of quality DPWT players seeking to take this prestigious title, but the vast majority are priced under 30/1 and it’s too much guesswork to say which will prove the best this week. Perhaps Robert MacIntyre, on his way to the other side of the Atlantic, will prove himself the Links stud that has always threatened to win a big one, or maybe Tom Mckibbin will once again enjoy the open nature of the fairways, as he did at Green Eagle, Qatar and Steyn City.
David Micheluzzi could be plenty good enough to scupper the bigger names, his recent wins on the Australian tour backed by a pair of top 20 finishes at proven links correlations Himmerland and, of course, the Dunhill Links. 20/1 may not be the worst price ever and he now makes more appeal than 50/1 about less-exposed but potentially brilliant Harrison Crowe, backable at his opening show but now just 50/1.
Instead, take the proven form of Sean Crocker, winner of the 2022 Hero Open at Fairmont St. Andrews, by a shot from another links specialist in Eddie Pepperell.
Some of the 27-year-old’s best form seems to conflict with his long driving prowess, but that he could contend at Leopard Creek, Kenya and Morocco in the early days suggests there is a touch of guile to his tee-to-green game. That is evidenced by his ranking of 23 for driving distance and 24th for greens-in-regulation, an admirable feat given his lowly number for accuracy off the peg.
Those figures are not unusual for the Zimbabwe-born American. Indeed, in 2020, the selection ranked top-20 for both his assets although 87th for driving accuracy, whilst a year later this was more pronounced, listed in the top-10 and yet also outside the top-100!
Given some room, Crocker’s iron play can be dangerous and he is on a run that suggests Royal Queensland might suit.
Five cuts in a row starts with a final round 67 at St. Andrews at the shortened Links championship, followed by 20th in Spain, 43rd at the Andelucia Masters, top-10 in Qatar and 20th at the Gary Player. In all, Crocker ranked top 15 for distance and top-24 for greens-in-reg. In new money, an average of 12 off the tee over the last four events, 10th for approaches over the last three and inside the top seven for tee-to-green over the same.
The money shots, of course, lie on the greens. However, with plenty of Australian PGA’s won in low teens, and by Smith in 14-under last year, getting the ball on the flat surface will be the main concern. Take the pressure of the chip away and two-putting will see a player right there at the end.
He may not be the greatest with the flat stick but at 8th for distance, 17th for greens and top-40 for ball-striking over the last three months, Crocker comes here with a definite chance to mix it up with the big guns.
*Prices subject to change
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