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After one of the most raucous golf events in history, we reach the calm, informal six-hour rounds of the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Hosted by the legendary St. Andrews club, the Old Course plays the final act after a rotation through itself, Carnoustie and Kingsbairns, the first two cemented in history as combined 38-time venues for The Open Championship.
Indeed it was only last year that St. Andrews held the 150th running of Europe’s only major, won by subsequent LIV-jumper Cam Smith. Expect nothing like that sort of test this week.
Given the entry list, professionals linking with amateurs (of every standard imaginable) will face much simpler pin positions. However, whilst the first three days should be meat and drink to those paid for such things, as always with links courses the weather will be the determining factor, along with the pot bunkers, gnarly rough and undulating greens.
The forecast suggests some rain and wind as we reach the start of the event, increasing enough over the weekend to make it interesting without totally penalising those that have come along for the ride.
Experience around these tracks is almost vital. 2019 champion Victor Perez bucked the trend, being the only one in recent memory to win on debut, and whilst shocks do happen here, many have a logical reason behind them.
Since 2010, the 12 runnings have seen half won by players starting at three-figures. However, despite his starting price of 100-1, 2020 champion Danny Willett brought a former runner-up finish from 2010, whilst Oliver Wilson might have had little to no current form to speak of before winning at 500-1 but also ran up several years beforehand. That course knowledge is carried through almost every year, and whilst he had a best of 24th in 2018, last year’s winner Ryan Fox got his nose in front after seven previous tries.
One of the more fascinating aspects is how players react after the Ryder Cup. It would make pure sense should they have a hangover from either defeat or too much of the black stuff, but it seems not to matter.
Despite getting thrashed at Whistling Straits last year, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood all finished in the top 10 here a week later.
Whilst the opposite was true in 2018, with Europe tonking the US, Hatton and Fleetwood rode the euphoria seven days later, finishing tied-second behind Lucas Bjerregaard. In behind, Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau, with 3.5 points between them at Le Golf National, also finished inside the top-10.
After recovering from the news that event specialist Tyrrell Hatton misses this year for the first time in eight years, six-time top-five player Tommy Fleetwood gets the dubious honour of favouritism. At a single -figure he is left well alone, as is Matt Fitzpatrick, who has never really convinced at this event, certainly not enough to be backed at 11/1.
Robert Macintyre
Now the Ryder Cup is out of the way, it will be fascinating to see how Adrian Meronk responds. Just outside the top-40 at The Open, he followed up with a never-nearer 22nd at this event. He was strongly considered. along with Thorbjorn Olesen, but at sub-33/1, both are left out in favour of Robert MacIntyre, a player that may have turned his game around thanks to the spirit of playing partner Justin Rose.
The elder statesman was responsible for helping the Scot to his first one-and-a-half points before the younger man trumped his team-mate by winning his singles match against US Open champion Wyndham Clark.
“I’m a realist,” he said after the victory. “I don’t know if it’s going to be my first and last [Ryder Cup] or if it’s going to be my first of many. I just take every day as it comes and we’ll work hard and hopefully get back here.”
There is a risk taking him after a celebration night at home, but the last weekend could be the factor that raises the 27-year-old to the level many believe he should be residing.
As discussed, recent 72-hole form doesn’t matter an awful lot here, but it’s only a couple of months since he could/should have won at Himmerland and was beaten only by an inspired Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open.
He was certainly disappointing at this year’s Open, but brought in 6th and 8th at Portrush and Royal St George’s, the former in amongst Shane Lowry, Fleetwood, Finau, Koepka, Willett and Hatton (can we get more relevant?).
MacIntyre’s Denmark form is boosted with a runner-up in 2019 (Wilson in fourth place) whilst he has three top-20 finishes across his home and Irish Opens.
Given the chance to open his shoulders off the tee, across wider fairways than of late, he has the length to leave himself the chance to attack an easier track. Currently in sixth position for the ten PGA Tour cards awarded at the end of the year, the main selection will know he is 55th on the world rankings, needing to have a strong finish to grab invitations to all the top events going forward.
Finishes of 26th and 20th in this event are encouraging, sandwiching a missed-cut that was due to being blown around as the last pairing out at Kingsbarns. As someone that has long believed MacIntyre will win one of the future Open Championships, 35/1 in a much easier event is too good to ignore.
Connor Syme
Green-in-regulation is a huge plus in this event and whilst the ultra-consistent Joost Luiten appeals on that score, he’s passed over in favour of Connor Syme at ten points bigger,
A former Walker Cup player and team-mate of MacIntyre, Syme is another Scot that hasn’t quite reached the peak of his powers, even if recent results have been very encouraging.
Before a bizarre second-round 80 in France, Syme had run up a sequence of 4/3/7/10 through Galgorm Castle, Crans, K-Club and Wentworth, all results with a connection to the task this week. Yes, he threw away chances to win at both Switzerland and in Surrey, but he has yet another chance to put in a strong effort, around a track that has rewarded him with a 15th on debut and top-10 last year.
Finishing with four back-nine birdies in 2022, Syme told The Scotsman that, “I played well. I just putted better the last couple of days. I changed putter this week and I never do that, it’s been two-and-a-half years.” The positive thoughts about these greens are an encouraging sign for a player who is really only let down by his flat stick.
With a victory at the Australian Amateur in the bag, he joined the likes of Cam Smith as champion and even links in Willett, the latter winning the stroke-play competition some eight years previous. It’s old form but gives another basis to top up recent form.
Improving his tee-to-green play over the last few months, the 27-year-old ranked top four for approaches through the events mentioned previously, equating to three top five rankings for greens-in-regulation. There was nothing wrong with his opening five-birdie 67 in France and I’m not sure that one poor round in 18 is enough to put me off a player for whom windy, open conditions are a boon.
Grant Forrest
It may seem like a Scottish bias, but I have to include Grant Forrest at windy, links tracks, especially at home.
Another outstanding junior, the now 30-year-old won the Scottish Amateur in 2012, followed in by MacIntyre a few years later, and the St. Andrews Links before losing in the final of the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie.
That’s enough to be getting interested in without the near-loss at the 2021 irish Open, win at Fairmont (three Scots in the top five) and 10th in open, windy Oman (tied with Syme, Luiten, Alfred Dunhill winner Martin Kaymer and twice-runner-up Ross Fisher).
2023 hasn’t seen a victory, but his best efforts count for plenty here. 10th at Abu Dhabi to start the year, his seven top-20 finishes include top-10 at the KLM, 11th at the Scottish open and third at the K-Club, again all form of use here this week. Another that went AWOL after a good opener in France, that is easily ignored and this is more his test
Long off the tee (22nd for the season) he’ll enjoy the return to this event, for which he has run up form figures of 10th and 27th for the last two years. Indeed, having finished birdie-birdie 12 months ago, expect a return to form that isn’t covered by the current 80/1.
I was tempted to again go in on Ewen Ferguson (yep, Scot) especially after his dire final round in France, as he proved in Qatar last year that he can shake off those missed chances to come again. That victory, alongside the near miss at Himmerland, suggest better. However, he is passed over in favour of two three-figure pokes.
Marcus Helligkilde
Marcus Helligkilde has been putting up some excellent efforts recently, simply unable to prove his game consistently over 72 holes. It changes here!
A four time winner on the Nordic Tour, and champion of the 2021 Challenge Tour, the Dane has struggled on-and-off with injury but latest numbers suggest something is returning and it can be here, in a country that often rewards form from that part of the world. With three Swedish and one Danish winner of the Scottish Open, and Oleson and Bjerregaard chipping in at the Dunhill Links, the 26-year-old can follow Brandon Grace and Tyrrell Hatton into the winner’s enclosure after a weekend off on debut.
The Dane caught the eye at the 2021 Dutch Open at Bernardus, looking slightly naive down the stretch, but has since run up finishes of eighth and 25th at Himmerland, fourth behind Ferguson and Syme at Galgorm (Richard Mansell in fourth, top-10 here last year) and 12th at Qatar (again behind Fergy).
Recent form is better than at first glance. He came from 20th overnight to finish behind the two Scots in Ireland, 106th after the first round at Crans before finishing 13th, mixed two rounds with not-so-great at the Irish Open, and led the field after day one of the BMW PGA, staying inside the top-10 until the final day.
It’s not perfect by any means, but that’s why he is 100/1. The tee-to-green game is showing more consistency, finding over his last four events and he’s chanced at the price.
In the spirit of Ollie Wilson, I’ll row in with a big priced selection based on course form only.
Tapio Pulkkanen
The Englishman can’t be ignored after a runner-up finish at The Belfry, and making all four rounds at Hoylake, and neither can Joakim Lagergren, an out-and-out course specialist. However, I’ll row in with huge-hitting Tapio Pulkkanen, who may not know where the ball is going but has finished 10th, 40th and fourth in three of his four outings here.
Length played a big part here last year. Ryan Fox, Callum Shinkwin, Rory and Mansell were just some of the top names that used power to overcome the gentler holes and, currently ranked 27th for driving distance, Pulkkanen can join them in the top-20 at least.
Best form at this level includes running-up at the driver-heavy Czech Masters, top-20 at the similar Green Eagle, third and 17th at links-relevant Portugal and a pair of top-20 finishes in Denmark.
It really is a stab in the dark with the trilby-hatted Finn, who has never reached the expected level after a decent amateur and NGL career. Nevertheless, on his best form, the 33-year-old may shake a few feathers in the specialist markets, and if it’s going to happen it might well be here.
