EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action
Birmingham City v Swansea City
It’s hard to know exactly how quickly a new manager might settle, but all the ingredients are there for an instant impact from Tony Mowbray.
Sure, criticism can be levelled at the players, up to a point, for two wins in 15 under Wayne Rooney, but they only go so far because the team was sixth – and performing superbly – when John Eustace was wrongly sacked.
Rooney’s career in management is perceived to be borne somewhat out of fear of no longer working in top level football, and he seems to rely on his status.
Mowbray has a more down-to-earth style, he knows how to content with different people, and his experience and reliability is exactly what Blues need just now.
The second city club produced an encouraging FA Cup performance last week at Hull, with only a late equaliser denying them immediate passage to the 4th Round, so it looks in place for a positive first game for ‘Mogga’.
Swansea have a new manager at the helm themselves in Luke Williams.
In the long run, the former Notts County boss will be a major hit with his uncompromisingly possession-oriented style of play, but his ideas are very niche and it may take him some time to get them back across to some of the squad.
“Luke Williams is a fantastic appointment for Swansea and I expect him to bring success to the South Wales club, but I feel Tony Mowbray will take the honours in this clash of the new managers.”
Huddersfield to win and Under 2.5 Goals – 5/1
Huddersfield Town v Plymouth Argyle
A poor summer transfer window has left Huddersfield in for a fourth dogfight in five seasons, since relegation back to the Championship in 2019, so a strong January is a must.
It looks on the cards, because owner Kevin Nagle has spoken publicly about the club’s ambitious recruitment drive this month, in a bid to secure their second-tier status, and two signings have already been made in Alex Matos and Bojan Radulović.
Matos arrives on loan in West Yorkshire during a productive season with Chelsea Under-21s and, previously established as a winger or forward, he’s spent much of this campaign in deep midfield.
It may be a risk to take a PL2 talent on a first-time loan at Championship level, because it’s unclear quite how they will adjust, but he’s already in first-team consideration at a club that’s spent £1bn on transfer fees in 18 months Todd Boehly’s ownership, having made a Premier League match-day squad 13 times under Mauricio Pochettino.
Matos will bring the Terriers energy, dynamism and ball-winning qualities, along with an excellent mentality and application, earning comparisons to N’Golo Kante.
Radulović, meanwhile, is a centre-forward whom boss Darren Moore will help remedy the goalscoring issues, with his side having operated without a natural striker for much of the campaign.
The 24-year-old has scored 21 goals in 32 appearances for HJK Helsinki, and should provide some potency to make the difference.
Huddersfield have quality out wide in the likes of Sorba Thomas and Josh Koroma, but Radulović could be the one to bring it all together and put the chances away.
Visitors Plymouth Argyle are under new management, as Ian Foster has his first game in charge after Steven Schumacher left for Stoke, but they’re also having to adjust to the losses of Finn Azaz and Luke Cundle.
“Huddersfield’s signings of Alex Matos and Bojan Radulović, I think could really improve them, and I’m expecting an instant impact against a Plymouth Argyle side responding to the loss of a legendary manager and two key players.”
Peterborough to win and Over 1.5 Goals – 6/4
Charlton Athletic v Peterborough United
Darren Ferguson and Peterborough are proving the perfect marriage again this season.
2023-24 began with some trepidation, and fears that budget cuts and a more youth-oriented recruitment policy would lead to a short-term hit in productivity, undermining their chances of another League One promotion push.
Instead, this Posh side is arguably better than last season’s Play-Off Semi-Finallists, despite the losses of Jack Taylor and Joe Ward, or even the group that won automatic promotion in 2020-21.
The attacking quartet of Kwame Poku, Joel Randall, Ephron Mason-Clarke and Ricky Jade-Jones is proving deadly for Ferguson’s side, who won’t be as affected by the loss of Jonson Clarke-Harris as they might have been in previous times.
Archie Collins has forged a fine midfield pairing with Hector Kyprianou, with the former’s discipline and control allowing the latter to express himself more than we saw last season.
So far, Posh have retained key centre-back Ronnie Edwards, and they’re hoping a Premier League club takes him this January rather than a Championship one, increasing their chances of getting him back on loan.
Peterborough are one of the best attacking teams in League One, and they travel to an out-of-form Charlton side who are winless in their last seven league games.
“Peterborough are a hugely exciting team this season, and they’re efficient to boot, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t take all three points at an imbalanced Charlton side winless in seven.”
Double Chance: Draw/Port Vale – 7/10
Reading v Port Vale
Many Reading fans were resigned to relegation after mid-November’s 3-2 loss at Shrewsbury, but they played well in that game, dominating the first half, and were moments away from winning before conceding twice in injury time.
Since then, the Royals have amassed 16 points from nine games, and while they’re still in the drop zone, they’re now only three points off safety.
Nelson Abbey and Tyler Bindon have impressed with their progressive ball-playing in central defence, and his accuracy is impressive when considering his passes tend to be the riskier ones.
Bindon’s quality allows Rubén Sellés’ side to break lines and beat the press, while the Kiwi is growing as a ‘defender’, too.
Nelson Abbey, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency in a team that’s been anything but, playing in all but three of the Berkshire club’s league games.
A little less technical than Bindon, Abbey is quick and strong which allows him to drive forward with the ball, which makes him a more appealing go-to against low blocks.
Abbey averages 20 carries per 90, the fourth-most in League One, as the two complement one another nicely, giving Reading opportunities to progress play in different ways, depending on what the game needs.
That’s a great starting point, which will help the hosts against a Port Vale side who have won just three of their last 18 league games, losing two of their star midfielders – Oli Arblaster, to a loan recall from Sheffield United, and Funso Ojo to injury.
“Reading have two talented centre-backs in Tyler Bindon and Nelson Abbey, who fansite The Tilehurst End have produced some top analysis on. I expect the duo to keep a lid on Port Vale, with Andy Crosby’s visitors having won three in 18.”
Sutton United v Barrow
After Sutton parted company with club legend Matt Gray, Jason Goodliffe did a good job in the interim period, overseeing a steady four points from four games.
Not bad, to say he came in with the team cut adrift at the foot of the table after an 8-0 drubbing by Stockport, and it’s been competitive performances in all of the games, including the 2-0 loss at Championship side Plymouth Argyle.
Nonetheless, it may be that Goodliffe didn’t feel he could take the job on for more than a few games, out of loyalty to Gray, so the U’s needed to make another appointment until the end of the season.
The board have poached Steve Morison from Hornchurch, whom he had top of the Isthmian League with the biggest budget, after doing a passable job in the Championship with Cardiff.
Morison, however, will need to outperform not only Forest Green, who have a far bigger January budget and have been able to acquire Alex Gorrin from Oxford, but also overtake a Salford, a Colchester or a Grimsby, all of whom have good, experienced EFL managers.
It’s a tough assignment, therefore, and his first game in charge comes against a Barrow side who have lost just one of their last 15 league games, and are firmly in the mix for automatic promotion.
The Bluebirds have an experienced defence, an industrious midfield, and a dangerous strike-pairing of Emile Acquah and Dom Telford, and they’ll be looking to capitalize, should third-placed Wrexham drop points at home to AFC Wimbledon.
“Barrow will be without their animated, fist-pumping manager, Pete Wild for the trip to strugglers Sutton, in Steve Morison’s first game in charge of the Londoners, but I expect the visitors to get the business done nonetheless as they look to profit from any possible slip-up from third-placed Wrexham against Wimbledon.”
Tranmere to win and Both Teams To Score – 4/1
Tranmere Rovers v Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere had great news on Friday, as loan star Rob Apter rejoins from Blackpool on a permanent deal.
The agile winger has been in sparkling form this year, and while he racked up the big numbers in November, he’s also played a key part in overall team performance across December and on New Years’ Day too.
Apter’s return will give Rovers a buzz, and will ensure they carry a threat out wide against MK Dons, and continue their positive goalscoring form – they’ve scored more than any other team in League Two, 24 in 11 games, since Nigel Adkins got the permanent job in November, and are rampant at home.
Visitors MK Dons are in good form themselves under new boss Mike Williamson, and should finish in the top seven, but their expansive, possession-heavy style can leave them vulnerable to effective counter-attacking play, which is where their hosts will feel they can take advantage in what might be an entertaining encounter.
“Tranmere have got Rob Apter back from Blackpool, and I expect that news to give the Super White Army a real buzz as Rovers look to continue their excellent home form, in what I think could be a high-scoring game.”
