The new year dawns upon English football’s third tier. Our EFL pundit Gab Sutton reflects upon an enthralling 2023 in League One and gives his predictions for the coming year.
Surprise Packages
Stevenage
Most teams in League One try to play pretty football, and while that’s the norm, Stevenage can have a spicy impact with their aggressive style, and willingness to mix their game up.
The Boro recruited superbly in the summer. Boss Steve Evans has used his contact book and backing from owner Phil Wallace to sign experienced players with a history of performing towards the top of League One, and even in the Championship.
The quality of recruitment means, other than the goalkeeping position, where Craig MacGillivray has just been signed from MK Dons to compete with Taye Ashby-Hammond, and left-back, Boro have had stiff competition in every position that isn’t taken by an obvious star performer, like the imperious Carl Piergianni at the back or poacher Jamie Reid in attack, who has 14 goals already.
The likes of Piergianni and Reid have stepped up so well, along with ball-carrier Jordan Roberts. They’re playing with better players around them, as the recruits of Nathan Thompson, Louis Thompson, Fin Burns and Nick Freeman have been roaring successes.
Competition is strong and the bench is rich, which facilitates Evans’ smart, troubleshooting in-game management.
Stevenage aren’t under pressure to challenge for the Play-Offs this season, and the fanbase was happy with mere consolidation, but Evans is an ambitious manager – and Boro have shown already that they certainly aren’t here to make up the numbers.
Oxford United
Progress from last season’s disappointing 19th-placed finish was always a likelihood for Oxford. Still, there’s some surprise over just how much.
The Yellows have been fortunate to stay, largely, injury-free. Key men in goalkeeper James Beadle, centre-back Elliott Moore, left-back Ciaron Brown, and midfielders Marcus McGuane and Cameron Brannagan have missed just four of a possible 125 league games.
Recruitment has been strong, too. Beadle has enjoyed an excellent season on loan from Brighton, Rúben Rodrigues has brought his flair from the National League into League One, and left-sided athlete Greg Leigh was starring before injury, to contradict the above slightly.
The U’s hit a bump in the road when Liam Manning was poached by Bristol City, but the Head Coach has been replaced by the esteemed Des Buckingham, who has worked wonders across the globe, most recently with Mumbai City.
It was a tough start for the 38-year-old, but three wins in the last five league games suggests Oxford are starting to motor again.
Northampton
Northampton have benefited from retaining their promotion-winners of 2022-23, including loanees Kieron Bowie and, crucially, Marc Leonard, who has brought playmaking class and grace to their midfield once again.
There’s fears that Leonard might be recalled by Brighton and loaned out to a top League One side or even the Championship, where Coventry have reported interest. Nevertheless, the Scot has already played his part in ensuring the Cobblers beat the drop.
After being ravaged by injuries in the second half of last season, Teyn have enjoyed a little more consistency this term, with only 19 players starting league games in a tight-knit group.
Northampton have a huge connection between Jon Brady, their passionate Aussie boss, and the supporters, who’s belief in what they’re seeing has navigated them through some awkward periods into a fantastic position.
Brady’s side have a strong shape, even in possession, and there’s a real synergy to the group who seem to know where each other are on the pitch with smooth patterns of play and well-coordinated pressing.
On top of that, Northampton have a smattering of brilliance in Leonard (see above), Mitch Pinnock, who can create something out of nothing. Alongside Sam Hoskins, a prolific goalscorer, albeit from a wide position.
Flops
Blackpool
As by far the best equipped of League One’s relegated clubs, Blackpool were hoping to be in the mix for automatic promotion this season. So to be four points off the Play-Offs, having played more games than those around them, means they have to be classed as a flop.
There’s every chance Pool change this status. Their ceiling is arguably higher than leaders Portsmouth, where they won 4-0 back in November. However, it’s been a season plagued by otherwise dismal away form – two wins in 12 – and chronic inconsistency.
At their best, Karamoko Dembélé really gets the one-touch combination play going in the final third, CJ Hamilton can be electric, and Jordan Rhodes is clinical in front of goal – but it only happens every other week.
Injuries in attack haven’t been ideal. Midfield options are high on quantity but debatable on quality. Meanwhile, the defence has been a weak point, and Neil Critchley has been criticized for not having a Plan B to fix the away form.
This could still be a successful season for Blackpool, but they need to maintain their high ceiling and raise their low floor.
Charlton Athletic
Charlton had a chance to find some stability under Dean Holden, and they gave it up over four defeats.
The Mancunian led the Addicks from 18th to 11th last season. After starting this one with a 1-0 win over Leyton Orient, however, they took no further points until the 43-year-old’s dismissal. This, despite the mitigating factors of missed chances from competitive performances, bad refereeing decisions, injuries to key players and an imbalanced squad forcing an unhealthy reliance on youth.
If anything, Charlton are in an even worse position for having dismissed Holden, especially as his replacement, Michael Appleton, has none of his predecessor’s ability to connect with supporters.
Injuries remain an Achilles heal with goalkeeper Harry Isted, energetic midfielder Panutche Camara, and striker Miles Leaburn all spending time of the sidelines, among others.
Appleton doesn’t have a squad for the 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 shape he wants to play, and has been criticized for shunting key man Alfie May out wide. The Cheltenham recruit and defender Lloyd Jones have been the only hits from Andy Scott’s signings.
Throw in the loss of form from George Dobson, long considered a known quantity at the base of midfield, and what could have been a season of hope for Charlton has very quickly become another one of underperformance and disgruntlement.
Wycombe Wanderers
Some allowances, at Wycombe, need to be made for the reality that this is a transitional season. Indeed, the club seeks to go away from the direct identity they had under Gareth Ainsworth, towards something more progressive. Naturally, there’s inconsistencies that come with that.
At the same time, the Chairboys have enough individual quality to be higher than their current position of 16th. After four years of either being in the top 10 of League One or in the Championship, they’re no longer plucky underdogs at this level.
Matt Bloomfield’s side have been wasteful in front of goal, though. They require a centre-forward in January unless Taylors Lyle or Dale can take some of the pressure off Sam Vokes.
The Chairboys also need to either add an infusion of pace to their play, or look after the ball better to facilitate the new style – preferably both – although West Ham loanee Freddie Potts’ return will help on the latter count.
Potts has been outstanding, as has Bristol City loanee Joe Low. Meanwhile, Shrewsbury recruit Luke Leahy, while Vokes remains more of a key man than would be ideal at 34.
Bloomfield will get time, especially with owner Rob Couhig making clear the board’s position of backing the Wanderers legend, and we feel with the right January additions, he can still turn things around this season – but they’re in the flop category for now.
Predictions for 2024
Promotion
Portsmouth
Portsmouth have built their promotion push on solid foundations, despite the injury to key defender Regan Poole, with the assured Conor Shaughnessy proving an inspired acquisition from Burton.
In midfield, Marlon Pack, Joe Morrell and Alex Robertson are all extremely technical. Pack brings control and knowhow, Morrell provides elements of that but also an aggressive streak, while Robertson offers energetic creativity. The synergy between the trio is delightful.
Against the ball, meanwhile, Abu Kamara, Colby Bishop and Paddy Lane have a relentless stamina and a thirst to hunt the ball down, as well as other qualities.
Kamara is quick and direct, Bishop can drop in and link play superbly as well as provide a goal threat. Meanwhile, Lane has one of the best left foot’s in League One.
Then there’s boss John Mousinho. We still don’t quite know how the former centre-back, who 12 months ago was still registered as a player at Oxford, will deal with the run-in as such a young coach, let alone Head Coach, but there’s been little to faze him so far.
Mousinho brings a radiant, positive energy to the job and seems to be ready for all the challenges that come his and Portsmouth’s way.
Bolton Wanderers
Since the hurt of losing last season’s Play-Off Semi-Final to Barnsley, Bolton have poured through all the things that separated them from the top two, and made the relevant corrections.
Firstly, the summer window has made Wanderers a more balanced side. Whereas last year a few players were shoehorned into unfamiliar positions, this squad has a more natural, even feel.
Moreover, the Trotters have found a formula to beat the lesser sides this season, with 40 points from 17 games against sides outside the top 10.
It’s partly thanks to excellent work from boss Ian Evatt and the coaching staff that they’ve established some new attacking patterns around the edge of the penalty area, with a few extra crosses contributing to 45 goals from 24 games this season, compared with 62 from the whole of last season.
Beneficiaries of those extra crosses have been Dion Charles and Victor Adeboyejo, who have scored 22 goals between them. The team averages 2.28 PPG when they’ve started simultaneously.
Defensively, they’ve improved, too. 11 clean sheets is the joint-most in League One with Stevenage, which shows how well Nathan Baxter has replaced James Trafford and how well the team has adjusted to the loss of George Johnston to injury.
Peterborough United
Many Peterborough fans expected Josh Knight and certainly Ronnie Edwards to depart before the last transfer window closed. However, the defenders have remained to forge an excellent central partnership, hopefully one that will remain until May.
Hector Kyprianou has enjoyed a meteoric rise in form, too, taking on a new lease of life after the loss of Jack Taylor. The arrival of Archie Collins from Exeter has handed him the freedom to go from ‘Hector the Protector’ to ‘Hector the Connector’.
The attacking quartet of Kwame Poku, Joel Randall, Ephron Mason-Clark and Ricky Jade-Jones has been a delight to watch, too, with the four all proving doubters wrong in different ways.
Poku signed for Posh the year after his form for Colchester was hottest, Randall wasn’t able to deliver on his big money move straight away, Mason-Clark was stepping up from the National League, and Jade-Jones has, understandably, taken a few seasons to get cooking having come through at 16.
They complement one another beautifully, though. Keep them fit, fresh and at the club and Peterborough will be a serious force, under a club legend and serial promotion winner in Darren Ferguson.
Key departures and lack of depth could be the stumbling block, though, while an uncompromisingly youth-oriented recruitment policy may have drawbacks somewhere down the line.
Relegation
Fleetwood
The Trawlermen are bottom of the table, having changed manager for a second time this season. They look the likeliest to drop.
The Lancashire club are entrusting Charlie Adam with their survival chances, rather than an experienced former Championship manager in Lee Johnson.
Adam had a good playing career, but most of his time since then has been spent as Burnley Loan Manager. This doesn’t involve much coaching. Making him a number one thus feels like a risk.
Throw in the off-field turbulence and this feels like a season of strife all-round.
Burton Albion
Much of Burton’s survival chances depends on who they appoint.
Gary Mills has done a good job as caretaker, delivering eight points from six games, but his CV isn’t the most attractive on paper. It’s hard to say whether he has the nous to deliver against the likes of Darrell Clarke, Neil Harris, and Paul Simpson.
The Brewers have been circling the drainpipe for the last four years, with great escapes under Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Dino Maamria keeping them safe. This could be the year they fall through the trapdoor, however.
The East Staffordshire club failed to recruit well enough in the summer, with only goalkeeper Max Crocombe, defender Ryan Sweeney and wide man Kwadwo Baah hitting the spot from 13 additions.
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury’s 2023-24 is comparable to their 2019-20 campaign under Sam Ricketts, in the sense that what looks a respectable position and points return on paper, isn’t mirrored by performance.
Salop have flattered to deceive all season. Three narrow August wins against the worst teams in the league in Cheltenham, Burton and Fleetwood stabilized their position early on. Since then, they’ve ticked over the points with unconvincing smash-and-grabs like the 3-2 win over Reading, in which a poor performance was masked by two dramatic, injury-time goals.
In 2019-20, though, the League One dogfight was a done deal because there was one fewer relegation spot than usual through Bury’s liquidation. Bolton also receieved a 12-point deduction, Southend only won four games all season, and Tranmere didn’t find form until February – what turned out to be a month before it was all decided by PPG.
This time around, there’s more cause for optimism for some of the teams in the drop zone. Shrewsbury, therefore, don’t have the same leeway.
The hope is that if the injury situation eases, particularly in the wing-back areas, they can pick up their base performance level and reduce their reliance on defensive strength. Rookie Matt Taylor is yet to truly convince as Head Coach, however.
Port Vale
Midfield had been Port Vale’s main area of strength this season. Funso Ojo’s injury and Oli Arblaster’s recall from Sheffield United has limited Andy Crosby’s side, however.
Defensively, they’ve gone from a 6/10 to a 4/10 at best through, firstly, Alex Iacovitti’ injury, and secondly, the centre-back struggling to recapture his form after recovery. Connor Ripley’s shot-stopping is thus being tested to the maximum.
In attack, meanwhile, nine different players have operated up top for the Valiants this season, and the nonet have scored three goals between them when in that position.
Throw in the question marks over Andy Crosby, and Vale could plummet in the second half of the season, unless this January window is far better than the last.
Dark Horses
Bristol Rovers
Since Joey Barton was replaced as Head Coach by Matt Taylor, Bristol Rovers have thrived against the better teams. They’ve beaten both Portsmouth and Bolton as well as earning an FA Cup replay against Norwich.
It’s 10 points from six games for Taylor, form which, if sustained over the remaining 22 games, would see the Gas amass 71 points. Bearing in mind they’ll have more favourable fixtures between now and May, they might end up with more than that.
Furthermore, there’s a chance Barnsley and Stevenage drop off: the former have been unconvincing this year, the latter are a newly promoted side, and neither have Bristol Rovers’ capacity to deliver against the best teams in the league.
Bristol Rovers have the means to strengthen in January. They could add to a strong core of goalkeeper Matthew Cox, centre-back Connor Taylor, midfielder Grant Ward, utility man Antony Evans, withdrawn forward Aaron Collins and front-man Chris Martin.
*Odds subject to change
18+ | BeGambleAware.org
