In horse racing, bettors are always looking at where they can find an edge of some sorts. And while the draw can often be overlooked by most taking part in horse racing betting, for others, this is the key because of a phenomenon known as the draw bias.
The draw bias, in short, relates to the stall that horses are drawn in ahead of a race. It’s believed that some stalls, because of their positioning, whether on the inside or outside, for example, will provide an advantage or disadvantage, which can be crucial when it comes to betting selections.
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Racecourses With Draw Bias
The importance or significance of draw bias will vary from track to track. Those who own or run racecourses will always do their level best to remove any form of discrimination where possible. Still, some tracks are considered to have a more significant or potentially significant bias than others.
Ascot
The bias at Ascot is on the straight course. When big races are on at Ascot, Royal Ascot, for example, a large field will often reveal the near side performs best. So, naturally, horses drawn in high stalls can gain an advantage from the so-called bias. (You can get the latest Royal Ascot betting odds with BetVictor!)
Beverley
Beverley is all about the turn. It’s a right-handed track that is very tight, so runners drawn low that can handle the turn are in with a good chance.
Catterick
A tight left-handed turn is present at Catterick, so across 5-7 furlongs, or even the minimum trip, the runners out on the far side will have the advantage.
Chester
The make-up of the track at Chester and it being a left-handed one-mile oval is going to lead to advantageous and not-so-advantageous draws and positions. A low draw is always going to be favourable because being wide on the turns means a lot of extra ground to cover.
Newmarket
Horse racing results show that horses that have run at Newmarket during races, such as the 2000 Guineas and been drawn high near the stands, have come out on top most often. If you fancy a flutter, check out our 2000 Guineas odds and 1000 Guineas betting markets at BetVictor.
What Creates A Draw Bias?
There are multiple factors that can go towards making a draw in horse racing favourable or not so favourable. They are as follows:
- Drawn Near The Pace – It will often help to be drawn on the side of the track or in close proximity to the quickest horses in the race. Without a known bias, if pace setters or potential front runners were in stalls 15, 17 and 20, it’d be ideal to be drawn in the high stalls.
- Drawn Near The Rail – Being drawn near the rail is a positive because it will often help keep horses focused and ensure they run straight. Away from the rail, ground can be lost as horses move off the preferred racing line.
- Fresher Ground – Running on fresh or fresher ground is always an advantage. After some races have occurred in the day, the ground can be churned up, so running on ‘fresher’ parts will be an advantage, while running across the churned-up areas will be a disadvantage.
- Ground Conditions – Similar to the above, ground conditions matter and do have an impact. Using Dundalk as an example, the ground on the rail can be deemed slower, so jockeys will usually try to bring their rides off the rail to find better conditions that allow for a faster pace.
- Tight Turns – There will never not be a draw bias present at tight turning tracks because horses on the inside, and drawn low in the stalls, will naturally have less ground to cover than those forced to go on the outside.
UK Courses With Draw Advantages
- Ascot – Favourable to be drawn near either rail in big fields across the straight course.
- Ayr – Low draws favourable on the straight course in big fields.
- Bath – Low numbers are advantageous in races up to one mile long.
- Beverley – Low, if the going is soft, is a plus, but high draws for races up to one mile are favourable.
- Brighton – Low numbers for sprints.
- Carlisle – High draws for races up to one mile.
- Catterick – Low numbers can be advantageous in races up to seven furlongs.
- Chelmsford – No advantages on the all-weather.
- Chester – Being drawn in a low-numbered stall and setting off fast is a plus for sprints.
- Doncaster – Low numbers on the round course are the way to go, but high numbers on the straight are favourable.
- Espom – Over 5f and 6f, high stall numbers are best. But beyond that, low numbers suit.
- Ffos Las – No advantages or bias.
- Goodwood – Low numbers combined with a good start in sprints.
- Hamilton – Mid into high draws best in sprints.
- Haydock – Across 5f and 6f, high numbers have an advantage on soft ground.
- Kempton – Combining low draws in races 5f to 7f long is a plus on the all-weather.
- Leicester – High numbers for the straight course.
- Lingfield – Races 5f to 7f, high draws is a positive. But no advantages or bias on the all-weather.
- Musselburgh – High numbers can have an advantage in races up to one mile.
- Newbury – High draws suit big fields.
- Newcastle – No advantages or bias on the all-weather.
- Newmarket – No advantages or bias on the July Course. Stall positioning can impact Rowley Mile.
- Nottingham – Stall positioning can have an impact.
- Pontefract – In sprints, low numbers are best.
- Redcar – Middle to high numbers are advantageous across the straight course.
- Ripon – When the ground is suitable, low draws work in sprints.
- Royal Ascot – No advantages or bias.
- Salisbury – When the going is soft, low numbers for sprints.
- Sandown – High numbers in sprints in big fields.
- Southwell – On the all-weather, low stalls for 6f races.
- Thirsk – Low for 7f and 1m, high across the straight course.
- Windsor – High draws work in sprints.
- Wolverhampton – No advantages or bias on the all-weather.
- Yarmouth – High numbers in big fields on the straight course.
- York – Middle to low draws on the straight course.
Conclusion
Bettors take many things into account to ensure the racing results go in their favour. The form of the horse, the strike rate of the jockey, trainer or the two combined, the course, distance, and much more are considered. But the draw and draw bias are often overlooked. However, as horse racing results show, they’re elements that can have a significant impact.
