Andy Schooler takes take a statistical look at the contenders for the 2024 US Open women’s singles title and picks out his best bets.
Aryna Sabalenka – 11/4
World ranking (as of Aug 20): 2
Tournament history: RU-SF-SF-2R-2R-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 & 2023 Australian Open
Hardcourt form: W Cincinnati, QF Toronto
Laid down a marker with a statement win over Swiatek in the Cincinnati semi-finals, again showing how she can go toe-to-toe with the Pole in quick conditions. Was one of few top players who didn’t play the Olympics and her extra preparation on the hardcourts may be paying off with the Belarusian seemingly finding top form at the right time – she went on to win the title in Cincinnati. Few rivals have her power and she’s been a consistent performer in New York, making at least the semis in the last three years. Arguably the one to beat.
Iga Swiatek – 10/3
World ranking: 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): 4R-W-4R-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 5 times
Hardcourt form: SF Cincinnati
Since Ash Barty’s shock retirement in early 2022, Swiatek has spent all bar eight weeks as world number one. However, is she really the world’s best on a hardcourt? It has to be questioned. The undoubted Queen of Clay has won only one Grand Slam on this surface in 11 attempts and while that was here at the US Open, reports of speedy, resurfaced Laykold courts at Flushing Meadows aren’t great for her chances of a repeat. Lost a key warm-up match to her main rival, Aryna Sabalenka, too.
Elena Rybakina – 8/1
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 3R-1R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2022 Wimbledon
Hardcourt form: L32 Cincinnati
Boasts one of the best serves in the women’s game but backing her at fairly short prices at the Slams have proved expensive since her Wimbledon triumph of two years ago. There’s been just one final appearance since with injuries and illness often taking their toll. Rybakina recently withdrew from the Olympics due to bronchitis and she arrives in New York having played (and lost) just one match since Wimbledon. Hard to trust at the price.
Coco Gauff – 8/1
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: W, QF, 2R, 1R, 3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 US Open
Hardcourt form: L32 Cincinnati, L16 Toronto
While it’s hardy been a disastrous season for Gauff, it is one laced with disappointment, certainly given expectations. The defending champion had been widely tipped to kick on in 2024 but that hasn’t happened with her one final appearance coming in the opening week of the season. Shock warm-up losses mean she comes into this tournament in contrasting form to last season when she swept all before her at Flushing Meadows. The unreliable forehand remains an issue, one which could prove her downfall in NYC.
Jessica Pegula – 12/1
World ranking: 6
Tournament history: 4R-QF-3R-3R-1R-1R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Quarter-finalist, 6 times
Hardcourt form: RU Cincinnati, W Montreal
After back-to-back finals in the two big warm-up events, Pegula is the form player on this surface coming into the US Open which bodes well. Gauff was in a similar position last year and managed to convert into her maiden Grand Slam title. Can Pegula do the same? It’s certainly possible. She declared her like of a quick surface in Cincinnati and organisers say their resurfaced Laykold courts are medium-fast. Famously is yet to go beyond the last eight at a Grand Slam but if the upstate New Yorker is ever going to make that big breakthrough, this could be the time.
Best of the rest
Emma Raducanu famously won the US Open as a qualifier in 2021, while Sloane Stephens is another to have claimed this title at a big price in the past decade.
If anyone’s going to land big odds this year it might by Marta Kostyuk.
The Russian has been in good form throughout 2024 and arguably isn’t getting the respect she deserves with a quote of 100/1.
On hardcourts this season, she’s been to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, the final in San Diego (where she beat Pegula) and the semis of Indian Wells. Other top-10 stars Gauff and Maria Sakkari have been taken down on clay.
Upon her return to the hard surface, it took Swiatek and the in-form Emma Navarro to defeat Kostyuk in the two big warm-up events and that’s probably where she’s at – likely to be beaten by one of the big guns.
Still, I think there’s every chance you get a run for your money at 100s.
Navarro herself has enjoyed a fine season and after a semi-final run in Toronto will certainly have her backers at 30/1.
Amanda Anisimova and Paula Badosa have also caught the eye during the lead-in tournaments.
Anisimova beat Sabalenka in Toronto as she finished runner-up. That is one of seven victories since hitting the hardcourts and all have come against top-50 opposition.
Down the years, she has a number of top-class wins on her CV but consistency has been an issue for the American. However, if she is able to bring her ‘A’ game to Flushing Meadows, she has potential at 40/1.
Badosa is the same price and after a long struggle with injuries, perhaps the stars are aligning for the former world number two.
She won the Washington title at the start of the month and has since backed that up with a run to the Cincinnati semis where she lost a see-saw battle with Pegula.
The Spaniard has an all-court game with weapons to hurt even the best but she’ll need to serve well – too often a low first-serve percentage damages her chances.
Best bets:
Aryna Sabalenka to win – 11/4
Amanda Anisimova each way – 40/1
Marta Kostyuk each way – 100/1
