Andy Schooler takes take a statistical look at the contenders for the 2024 US Open men’s singles title and picks out his best bets.
World ranking (as of Aug 20): 3
Tournament history (most recent 1st): SF-W-QF
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Hardcourt form: L32 Cincinnati
Winner of the last two Grand Slams – the French Open and Wimbledon – so it’s not hard to understand why he’s the favourite. Also made the final of the Olympics, but that means there’s a lot of big-match tennis in his legs which has to be a concern for potential backers. Upon his return to the hardcourts, the Spaniard lost in his opening match in Cincinnati. Frankly, the 2022 champion looks short enough.
World ranking: 1
Tournament history: 4R-QF-4R-1R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 Australian Open
Hardcourt form: W Cincinnati, QF Montreal
Laid down a marker in Cincinnati by winning the title but was clearly bothered by a hip injury during the tournament. That was to be a worry given they will be playing best-of-five-sets tennis in New York. Deserves great credit for that success but you have to wonder if his long-standing hip problem will prove his downfall at some stage. Remains world number one for a reason but hard to feel confident about betting on him at the price, especially given he’s yet to go beyond the last eight here.
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: W-RU-4R-4R-W-RU-W-SF-RU-RU-W-RU-SF-SF-RU-3R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Hardcourt form: None
Has made the final in nine of his last 12 visits to Flushing Meadows, yet the Serb has ‘only’ won this title on four occasions, which seems a little strange given he’s a 10-time champion on the Australian Open hardcourts. 2024 has been a struggle by his high standards but he arrives here buzzing after capturing Olympic gold – the one major prize in the sport that had been missing from his collection. Hasn’t played since but if he’s fully motivated to capture a record 25th Grand Slam title, then he’ll be hard to beat.
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: QF-SF-RU-4R-3R-2R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2024 French Open & 2020 US Open
Hardcourt form: SF Cincinnati, QF Montreal
Maybe there are now too many mental scars on the German, who famously lost the 2020 final here from two sets up and was also in a dominant position in this year’s French Open decider. He remains Slam-less yet he keeps knocking on the door and in slick conditions – which are expected in New York – his big serve and crunching groundstrokes remain big weapons. Has played well in recent months and only lost to Sinner 7-6 in the third in Cincinnati. With a decent record here, Zverev looks an interesting price.
World ranking: 5
Tournament history: RU-4R-W-SF-RU-3R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2021 US Open
Hardcourt form: L32 Cincinnati, L32 Montreal
Holds an impressive record at the US Open, having made three of the last five finals, winning one. Has only half-jokingly described himself as a “hardcourt specialist” and his unorthodox game style has caused opponents plenty of problems over the years. However, he arrives in New York this time in poor form, failing to win a match at either of his two lead-in tournaments. Yet to win a title in 2024 and I’m not convinced he’s about to break that duck.
Best of the rest
In the ‘Big Four’ era, shocks at the Grand Slams were few and far between but the US Open provided the most of them – think Juan Martin del Potro in 2009 and Marin Cilic in 2014 – so perhaps it may pay to look further down the market.
Recent form lines suggest Andrey Rublev (50/1) may be able to contend – he beat Sinner en route to the Montreal final and only lost to the same player in a wild, windy affair in Cincinnati.
However, his Grand Slam record shows the other side of the coin – the Russian is yet to go beyond the quarter-finals at any of the majors.
There have also been encouraging signs from Holger Rune, a player whose career has stalled somewhat of late.
He enjoyed a run to the semis in Cincinnati, where Jack Draper was among his victims, and we’ve seen in the past that he has the game to compete with the best.
However, the Dane, a 40/1 chance, has won only one match at the US Open in three visits.
Frances Tiafoe (60/1) is another who appears to be hitting form at the right time having made the Cincinnati final. He also beat Rublev as he reached the semis in Washington.
‘Big Foe’ loves playing in front of a home crowd and it’s no surprise that he’s managed to bring his best to the US Open courts in the past couple of years, making semis and quarters.
Finally, let’s mention two Italians.
You’ve never too far away from injury woe when backing Matteo Berrettini but the 60/1 shot played some fine tennis since returning from his latest problem earlier this year.
Since Wimbledon, he’s won back-to-back ATP titles on clay and while he did lose in his only hardcourt warm-up match (to Rune in Cincinnati), his first-strike tennis should be well suited to the speedy Laykold courts of New York.
Lorenzo Musetti’s game is arguably less well suited to these conditions but he did well on the grass this year (Wimbledon SF) and arrives in New York having won 29 of his last 39 matches.
He has a winning record against top-20 players in 2024 and so a price of 125/1 is eyecatching.
Will likely need a bit of luck in Thursday’s draw but could make waves at a big price.
Best bets:
