When is it run
The Supreme Novice Hurdle is the first race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival at 1.20pm and traditionally greeted with the famous roar as the tapes go back and the runners jump off. It’s a race that has been won by some true greats down the years who have gone onto become household names.
Key Trends
Eight out the last ten winners won last time out before taking the Supreme, only Slade Steel in 2024 and Labaik in 2017 defied that trend.
Nine out of the last ten winners took a graded hurdle prior to winning the Supreme.
Labaik in 2017 was the only non-single digit priced winner in the last decade. He had an SP of 25/1.
Race Overview
This year the Supreme feels more open than ever, by this stage of the season we are used to one horse (more often than not from Willie Mullins) taking a big chunk of the market. Now the dust has settled on the Dublin Racing Festival the likely chance for any significant contenders to step forward is over. With that in mind let’s look at a couple of the key contenders and potentially a bigger price play that could be considered a dark horse for the contest. See the latest betting on the race here (Hyperlink)
Main Contenders
Old Park Star
Form 323-111
Trainer Nicky Henderson
Your market leader hails from a yard who have previously claimed this race with the likes of Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill. He moved to join Nicky Henderson after three starts in bumpers for Paul Nicholls. It was the switch to hurdles that really saw his talent on full display. A fine debut at Kempton was taken up a notch when winning at Cheltenham in December, he then took the grade two Rossington Main at Haydock by 18 lengths from Hurricane Pat. He is bound to be popular with punters on the day and is very likely to be sent off favourite for this contest.
El Cairos
Form15-2F1
Trainer Gordon Elliott
A horse that will have you on the edge of your seat if you back him for the Supreme. He’s undoubtably shown brilliance and plenty of speed but twice we have seen the odd jumping error, once resulting in a freakish fall after the hurdle at Leopardstown and once at Thurles when just not getting it right at the last. If he brushes up on his jumping, the pace of the Supreme really could suit this horse who has a serious engine.
Talk The Talk
Form 2-11F1
Trainer Joseph O’Brien
I think if you are looking for the strongest race any of these novices have won, for me the Dublin Racing Festival win that Talk The Talk obtained is your answer. Prior to that run he took victories at Limerick and a graded race at Fairyhouse. His third run saw his winning streak come to a shuddering halt. He fell when I felt that he had the grade one race in the bag over Christmas at Leopardstown before a fall at the last. He returned to action this month and got up in a photo finish to beat the previously unbeaten Ballyfad and had the smart King Rasko Grey in third. Providing that race hasn’t taken too much out of him he should go close in a Supreme.
Dark Horse
Idaho Sun
Form 16-111
Trainer Harry Fry
I think plenty could be surprised about the price for Harry Fry’s runner here and I may be one who backs him on the day. This season has really been a dream with a perfect three runs and three wins over hurdles demonstrating a good level from this six-year-old. We last saw him winning the Formby on Boxing Day. I had always thought of him as one likely to step up in trip this season and could have been a Turners horse. Fry opts to come here and at 16/1 I can foresee his price contracting once a few of the wise guys latch on and look to put him up as an each-way option.
