There are plenty of questions to answer in the lead-up to the World Championship this year.
Can Ronnie O’Sullivan dethrone Stephen Hendry as the ‘King of the Crucible’, win the season triple crown for the first time in his glittering career and become a record-breaking eight-time World champion?
Is it possible for defending champion Luca Brecel to do something that no first-time winner has done at this venue, win the title back-to-back and break the ‘Crucible curse’?
There’s an ultra-strong line-up in the qualifiers including Neil Robertson, Jack Lisowski and last year’s semi-finalist Si Jiahui – could one of those become the third qualifier to win this famous trophy?
Arguably the greatest player to never win the championship, can 2016 runner-up Ding Junhui finally fulfil his life’s ambition and be the first Chinese winner of the title?
It’s all in the melting pot for 17 days of one of the toughest mental tasks in sport. Hendry once said the tournament doesn’t start until the semi-final stage and he’s right. You win 36 frames to make the semi-final then it’s another 35 needed for the title.
Ok it’s no Tour De France but mental fitness and a shed load of class is required for this unique sporting ‘marathon’.
On to the main contender in any year and it’s, of course, O’Sullivan.
A 32nd straight Crucible appearance, the greatest of them all has lifted five substantial titles this season including the inaugural World Masters in Saudi Arabia – he nearly made it four ranking event wins at the Tour Championship, losing out to Mark Williams.
No player has ever gone on to lift the World Championship after winning that event so perhaps it’s a blessing in disguise he lost.
It’s arguable he’s in as menacing a run of form as he was when coming into the 2019 Championship, where he lost to then amateur, James Cahill. That year he was a very short-priced favourite but this time you can get around 5/2. That still looks short enough to pass over, although he’s only lost eight times all season.
O’Sullivan has a tendency to hit a flat spot in matches. In the International Championship he lost five frames in a row (from 6-4 up) to Zhang Anda.
He was lucky to escape the clutches of Zhou Yuelong at the UK Championship – having led 4-1, he lost four frames in a row then sneaked it 6-5. Mark Selby wiped him out 6-0 at the Players Championship. Then in the aforementioned Tour Championship final he led Williams 5-4 at the interval, only to lose six frames on the spin.
If he isn’t already, a victory on May’s Bank Holiday Monday will secure his place as one of the greatest sportsmen this country has ever produced. If not the greatest.
Brecel has had a funny old season. It actually resembles Joe Johnson’s 1987 campaign following his Crucible win the year previous.
Very inconsistent in ranking events but half decent in the non-rankers. In the early season, Luca only woke up at the Shanghai Masters, losing to O’Sullivan, then went into a proverbial coma until going well at the Welsh Open (QF), then the Saudi invitational (lost to O’Sullivan in the final again).
He’s in a quarter of the draw (as number one seed) where he has potential to do damage like last year. If he gets on a roll, he’s a live threat – however, history is against him. I’m not sure the swashbuckling, non-practicing ways of last year can strike twice to retain.
If the media focus is on O’Sullivan and Brecel to create history, the limelight is slightly off Judd Trump.
It’s been yet another terrific season for the Bristolian, making six ranking finals, winning five of them, and any other year he would be favourite, not second favourite, to land a second World title.
Up to 28 ranking titles, his consistency in winning events puts Trump among the greats.
The negativity that surrounds him is his record in the majors. While he has won the triple crown, he’s only clinched four of those titles (one Worlds, one UK and two Masters).
From 50 appearances, he has a strike rate of just 8%. Fair enough, O’Sullivan has a 13-year head start but ‘The Rocket’ has 23 in the bank at a mighty 25.8% career strike rate in the majors.
Though it has to be said, Trump has a real fondness for this event.
First making the final as a funky-haired all-out attacking prodigy in 2011, losing to John Higgins, he got one over on the Scot eight years later, claiming the title in one of the greatest displays in snooker history, racking up seven centuries. He was unplayable.
Previous to that, in 2013 and 2015 he made the one table semi-final set-up (lost agonisingly in a decider to Stuart Bingham in ‘15). It was somewhat of a surprise when, after a quiet season, Trump ventured to his third World final in 2022, losing out to O’Sullivan.
After an arduous season, can he muster another long battle royal in Sheffield? There’s odd question marks about his technique – can it withstand throughout this drawn-out event?
Though outside of Selby and O’Sullivan, I don’t think there’s a better component of session snooker than Trump. He’s mastered it.
We know Judd has all the shots in the game but he also has other tools in his armoury. He’s a superb, underrated tactician in the safety department, and scores for toffee – 76 centuries this season, 15 clear of his next rival.
It’s not ideal he’s in O’Sullivan’s half of the draw especially given his recent record against him – however, it looks a reasonable route to the semis with first-time seed Tom Ford a potential last-16 opponent then another in Zhang Anda or veteran Williams the seeds in the quarters. Bar a Tour Championship thumping (10-4), Trump has a healthy head-to-head with Willo.
Trump has mentioned many times getting over that first hurdle at the Crucible is the big one for him – but while he lost in his opener last year (to Anthony McGill), he’s made at least the quarters in five of the last six years.
I expect Trump’s best years are still to come. He will surely add at least a couple more Worlds before he’s finished playing and I like his chances a lot.
There’s a few outsiders with chances this year. Could age be against Mark Williams, though he’s no ordinary 49-year-old? Ali Carter and Barry Hawkins have excellent records at the Crucible. A last hurrah potentially for the Wizard of Wishaw, John Higgins, who always lifts his game here.
In O’Sullivan’s fourth quarter is a two-time ranking event winner this season, Gary Wilson. The Newcastle United fanatic warrants plenty of respect at 33/1.
The improvement and belief in Wilson the past 16 months has been highly significant. The former taxi driver defended his Scottish Open title pre-Christmas then scooped the Welsh Open in the same format two months later.
He belongs now among the big boys. That point was reiterated at the Tour Championship where he defeated Selby and Anda both 10-8 then pushed O’Sullivan valiantly in the quarters losing 10-7. It took a magnificent three-frame burst to beat him.
Ronnie was full of praise for Gary afterwards and so he should have been. Like Trump, Gary has a lovely mix of qualities where his strongest attribute is his scoring. He has got tons of ammunition. You won’t find a more determined individual who gives everything to the cause.
This format arguably plays to his strengths as well. That was reflected when he made the semi-final as a qualifier back in 2019, losing to Trump, and I can’t begin to tell you how much he’s improved since then.
Wilson has always been his own biggest critic, he lays everything on the line and in some ways is a bit like O’Sullivan, a perfectionist. He’s openly admitted to being a tweaker with his game and delved into sports psychology.
He’s clearly in a good place with his game and life in general. A married man now, it was only two years ago Wilson lost in qualifying for this event 6-0 to Jamie Clarke. How times have changed.
I said it at the start but belief is huge in this game. It’s all right winning a few games here and there in the qualifiers, but doing it for your livelihood, when it matters most and winning titles is a different kettle of fish altogether.
Wilson has done that, wants more and the next level is the triple crowns. Wilson isn’t a one-trick pony any more. He can win, let’s say, ‘untidy’ and over 17 days, you require that. He understands the concept.
He’s good enough to go very well in Sheffield especially when I firmly believe we have nowhere near seen this guy’s ceiling yet.
Outright selections.
Judd Trump – 4/1
Gary Wilson – 33/1
