The All-Star break is over, and the Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (62-34) to PNC Park for a 6.40 p.m. ET first pitch. With the Pirates heading into this one on the back of a victory and the Phillies being defeated last time out, it makes for an interesting matchup.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Pirates are currently tied 2-2 where the season series season is concerned.
On Sunday, the Pirates, as mentioned above, recorded a victory. They won 9-4 against the Chicago White Sox and were the -152 road favourites in that contest. Before the All-Star break kicked in, the Pirates had recorded four straight victories, which betters the six-run mark made in back-to-back games.
It was a different story for the Phillies on Sunday as they were outgunned by the Oakland Athletics 18-3. What made matters worse was that they were -229 home favourites with sportsbooks, so it was a dismal showing on more than one front. In their last two games, the Phillies have lost two, and in four of their previous five reverses, they’ve conceded a minimum of six runs. The only time this didn’t apply was in a 5-1 loss at the hands of Atlanta.
Pirates vs Phillies Betting Insights
- When playing as the underdogs, the Pirates have won twenty-six out of fifty-five this season.
- When sportsbooks have favoured the Pirates by +121 or worse this season, they have a record of twelve wins and fourteen losses.
- This matchup has a moneyline in place at sportsbooks that implies the probability of a Pirates win is 45.2%
- The Phillies have been favourites on seventy-nine occasions this season and have managed to win fifty-three of those fixtures, which is a win ratio of 67.1%.
- When the Phillies have been favoured by a minimum -143 by sportsbooks on the moneyline, which has been sixty times this term, they’ve won forty-two times, which is a 70% win rate.
- Based on the moneyline, the suggestion is that the Phillies have a 58.8% chance of winning this game.
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
What will grab a lot of people’s attention for this matchup, in particular, is that the moneyline is heavily supporting a Phillies victory, which is also in line with our thinking. A 58.8% probability of success to a 45.2% likelihood is significant, but it may not be worth going straight in and betting on the Phillies straight up.
We’ll give you our prediction first – Pirates 2-3 Phillies. Immediately, because of the unders hitting two out of three times recently in Pirates home fixtures, it’s going to be worth considering going with under eight runs. Meetings between the two teams have also seen this unders hit in four of the last five games.
As mentioned above, going straight in on the Phillies winning could be too big of a risk. But them to win at -140 is appealing all the same. It’s the form of the two teams that weakens the confidence in a straight bet to win.
Get the latest baseball odds and all of our MLB betting markets right here at BetVictor.
