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Once upon a time, ‘The Pistol’ Mark Allen hated going to his home event. Form figures of QF-2R-1R-4R-3R was testament to that.
The form book has been torn up the past two years.
He turns up to Belfast this year trying to emulate Judd Trump in 2018-2020 with a hatrick of Northern Ireland Opens. Funnily enough, had it been any other event than Belfast, Mark Allen wouldn’t be entered and would have gone for guaranteed money…
This event has been overshadowed by the ‘Macau 5’ (Mark Selby, John Higgins, Ali Carter, Luca Brecel & Thepchaiya Un Nooh) who decided pre draw to skip Belfast for the more financially lucrative non sanctioned exhibition event in South China. After a squabble, the exhibition moved dates but the players are obviously out of featuring here.
The aforementioned Trump comes here winning back-to-back ranking titles in the British Open and Wuhan Open becoming only the third player in history to win in successive weeks in different countries. The form he’s in, you wouldn’t discount him lifting a fourth Alex Higgins Trophy next week.
Still clinging onto his World no1 status, but you wonder for how long, it was probably no surprise to see Ronnie O’Sullivan withdraw from the event on Friday due to medical reasoning. He’s always been his own boss on schedules, and been pretty clear about where he wants to play mainly this season, that’s Asia not the U.K. (bar the triple crowns).
So that has opened it up for someone to pounce in O’Sullivan’s mini section and my first selection comes with a rule of thumb: Only back this player when he comes into form as he’s arguably the most erratic player on tour – he’s in form and his name is Lyu Haotian.
Never has consistency been a strong point of Lyu’s but I’m happy to take a chance here at 50/1 as he’s shown enough this season to think he might be turning a corner.
I like the fact firstly he’s had strong runs in two events already. He’s normally a ‘turns up in one event only’ man. He made the quarter-final in the European Masters in late August losing to Mark Selby and most recently in Wuhan went one better and made a fifth ranking semi-final where he was upended by Ali Carter. His run to the last four was a horrid route too but he beat Shoot-out champion Chris Wakelin, Ben Mertens, British Open runner-up Zhang Anda then O’Sullivan 5-1 in the quarters.
Lyu’s potent weapon is his scoring. He’s on five centuries for the season (three out in Wuhan) and last season managed 22 at an average of a century made every 6.1 frames he wins which is very good indeed. If you throw in 90+ breaks it was one of those every 3.8 frames he won. I’ll put that into context, Neil Robertson scored the most centuries last season with 50 but averaged a 90+ break every 2.8 frames he won.
Lyu opens with probably Tom Ford here which is tricky but he’s beaten Ford the last twice they have played. The icing on the cake is Lyu’s most successful event on the calendar is this one; he was a semi-finalist in 2017 and a quarter-finalist last season.
He’s made a ranking final before, the 2019 Indian Open and most importantly knows how to go deep in events, especially in this format.
My last selection is another from China, a very consistent sort in Yuan Sijun, also 50/1. I’m convinced he will go close in an event given how reliable he is to maintaining form especially this season.
It’s a touch disappointing that the former Asian Under 21 champion has only made one ranking semi-final, the 2019 Gibraltar Open. He’s long overdue then and given this field has no Selby, Higgins, O’Sullivan and Brecel, this might be his time to shine.
In the last two tournaments he’s lost in the last 16. You can excuse both when they were against O’Sullivan and Trump. Against the latter, he blew a wonderful chance of sending the match to a decider but missed a very easy brown to the middle and Trump punished him. Judd went on to win the title in Brentwood then in Wuhan so the form has been boosted significantly.
Some of Yuan’s wins this season have been really impressive; Tom Ford, Rob Milkins, Ding Junhui and Xiao Guodong have all come a cropper and all above Yuan in the rankings. The win over Ding in China was especially special – a 5-0 drubbing with three centuries. That is the sort of damage Yuan can produce.
Yuan might have to face a bang out of form Neil Robertson in the last 32 – it’s a good time to face him though and in this format. Yuan can produce the goods against anyone.
We’ve seen the Chinese contingent start the season impressively, with Zhang Anda making a first ranking final of his career in the last Home Nations event and I would have Yuan a notch above him. Wu Yize was a semi-finalist in Wuhan. Season rookies Liu Hongyu and He Guoqiang have made semis and quarters as well so I see no reason why Yuan can’t replicate the good run he had in the Welsh Open in February where he made the quarter-final.
Arguably, Yuan is the best of all the Chinese currently, undoubtedly a player who’s going to rise up the rankings fast and potentially win a ranking event one day.
