The New York Yankees (58-40) will play host to the Tampa Bay Rays (48-48) on Friday evening, with the Rays visiting the Yankee Stadium as a four-game series between the pair kicks off. The first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET, and we’ve got the lowdown on what to expect with our Yankees vs Bays picks.
Heading into the start of the four-game series, the season series as things stand sees the Yankees lead 5-4 overall.
Before the All-Star break kicked in, you could have looked at the Yankees in a positive way where their form was concerned. They’d collected two victories from three at the Baltimore Orioles. However, they then lost as -113 favourites 6-5 in what was the series finale on Sunday. They’ve also noticeably struggled in July so far and are 4-8 across twelve games. At home this season, they’re 25-19, and against the spread 52-46.
Looking at the Rays, it’s evident before the break that their offense was struggling. However, how much this matters is unclear in the short term, as they’ve collected three wins from their last four fixtures. In their last series, they won two of three home games against the Cleveland Guardians, scoring two runs in each. Away from home, the Rays are 21-21, 45-51 against the spread overall, and 4-2 against the spread in the last six.
Yankees vs Bays Betting Insights
- The Yankees have been favourites seventy-four times this season and won forty-two of those games or 56.8%.
- If the bookmakers favour the Yankees by -170 or more, their win rate has been 59.1%, with a 13-9 record.
- The implied probability of the moneyline suggests the Yankees have a 63.00% chance of winning against the Rays.
- The Rays have played forty games as the underdogs this season, registering eighteen wins, or a 45% success rate.
- The Rays, when at least a +143 moneyline underdog, have won four out of four games.
- The moneyline for the match between the Yankees and the Rays suggests the Rays have a maximum 41.2% chance of winning.
Yankees vs Bays Prediction
There is no doubt that the first of the four-game series between the Yankees and the Rays is going to be a close-run thing. Everything suggests this will be the case, from form to the moneyline. There won’t be much to separate the two, but what’s clear is that everything favours the Yankees just edging it, and most likely by one.
The score is potentially going to look something like 5-4 in favour of the Yankees. However, because of how the Rays have performed and continue to perform as underdogs, especially when the underdog moneyline is what it is, they’re going to put up a real fight, so expect plenty of runs.
The Yankees’ Aaron Judge could be the difference maker in this one because, with the bat in Major League Baseball, his home run total is unrivalled. In a game of fine margins, he’s a player who can just tip it in favour of the home team.
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