18+ | begambleaware.org
Is Norris due a maiden win? Can Perez re-find his form in front of his home crowd? Here’s our preview of what to watch out for and who to back as Formula 1 heads to Mexico for the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix!
Max Verstappen equalled his own record for most wins in a season with his 15th victory of the year
at last weekend’s action-packed United States Grand Prix and there seems little reason to believe that he won’t make it 16 at this weekend’s Mexico City GP.
Mexico City is host to Round 19 of 22 and the vibrant city is the perfect backdrop to what promises to be an important weekend on track.
With only four races left in the season, things are a long way from over behind Verstappen in both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships. Most of the talk after Sunday’s race was about Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, who were disqualified from second and sixth respectively after their cars failed post-race checks. Their DSQs have had a direct effect on the order at the back of the pack and has spiced up the fight for points among the smaller teams.
Three home podiums in a row for Perez?
It has been a rough time of late for Sergio Perez, who’ll be hoping a trip to his home event can raise
his spirits in the closing stages of a difficult 2023 campaign. Perez still sits second in the championship, his lead over Lewis Hamilton in the battle for second having been helped by the Mercedes’ disqualification from last week’s United States Grand Prix.
Perez finished sixth on the road at COTA but was bumped up to fourth in the final order- his best result since his podium finish at Monza in early September.
Perhaps better times are on the horizon for Perez as he makes a popular return to his homeland. Attendance at the Mexico City Grand Prix has soared since the Mexican’s move to a top seat and he’s rewarded the crowd with two home podiums in the last two years. He’d dearly love a third in a row this weekend, not least to help him in battle for P2 in the Drivers’ Championship.
On the subject of the Mexico City Grand Prix podium, in each of the last two years, Max Verstappen has won, with Lewis Hamilton second and Perez third. A repeat this weekend would make it the first time in F1 history that three successive races at a track have had identical podium results.
Norris’ first win on the horizon?
Lando Norris must surely be due his maiden victory soon. Not only has his recent form – with six podiums in the last nine races – been impressive, the stats back up the case that a win is likely on the way soon for the McLaren driver.
One more second or third finish would see Norris equal Nick Heidfeld as the driver to have finished on the podium the most times in their career without winning a race and no driver has made more than 15 top three appearances before taking their first win. At the United States Grand Prix, which he led 21 laps of, Norris surpassed contemporaries Carlos Sainz and Valtteri Bottas’ totals of 11 podiums before their first win.
Historically speaking, the facts suggest that a win for Norris is on the cards soon. Whether he can achieve the feat during such a dominant season for Red Bull remains to be seen. The good news for Norris this weekend is that Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is somewhat of an outlier venue with its high altitude sometimes presenting problems for frontrunning teams, or giving a boost to those
behind.
The bad news is that McLaren are yet to record a big result in Mexico since its return to the calendar in 2015. Last year’s 7th and 9th places was the team’s strongest showing at the venue during its comeback.
That being said McLaren have not had a car this capable of recording podiums this consistently since 2012. Norris is well placed to record the team’s first podium in Mexico since 1991 this weekend and, should things go his way, could even find himself on the top step.
Strange qualifying quirks in Mexico
There are two points of statistical interest to look out for in qualifying for the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix. The first is that all of the last 11 races at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez have had different polesitters. Yes, this streak is helped a little by the fact that there was no race in Mexico between 1993 and 2014, but Ayrton Senna remains the last repeat polesitter at the track, back in 1988 and 1989.
Max Verstappen has set the fastest lap time in qualifying here twice, but he was demoted on the grid in 2019 after setting his pole time while failing to slow for a yellow flag. Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, George Russell or the McLaren drivers are the most likely candidates to keep this streak going in 2023.
The second unusual occurrence in qualifying in Mexico is that in every visit to the track since his debut in 2015, Carlos Sainz has qualified one spot further up the order than in the previous year. Should that streak continue, Sainz is set to qualify fourth on Saturday!
Will Mercedes have the upper hand on Ferrari in Mexico?
While it would be a nice statistical quirk for Sainz to continue his pattern in qualifying for the Mexico City Grand Prix, the chances of Ferrari being able to qualify in the top four seem not so high.
The Scuderia suffered one of their worst competitive showings of the season in qualifying at the track last year. In a season where it was common to see the Ferraris on the front row, Sainz qualified fifth and Charles Leclerc was seventh.
In the race, the duo finished behind the Mercedes pair – which if repeated in 2023 will help Mercedes extend their hold on second place in the Constructors’ Championship.
The back of the pack battle is hotting up
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc’s disqualification from the 2023 United States Grand Prix had repercussions for the battle in the lower places in the Constructors’ Championship. Williams and AlphaTauri both benefited from the result at COTA.
Most notably, Yuki Tsunoda moved up to eighth and scored a point for the fastest lap, which doubled AlphaTauri’s points for the season in one afternoon. It leaves them just two behind Haas, who struggled with a new upgrade package in their home race and failed to score any points.
Tsunoda will have high hopes of picking up more points this weekend, while Daniel Ricciardo is still in pursuit of his first point of the 2023 season.
At Williams, Alex Albon finished ninth at COTA, while Logan Sargeant finished tenth and became the first American driver to score a point in Formula 1 in over 30 years – and even did so at his home race. That saw Williams increase their lead over Alfa Romeo in the standings to 10 points, with the latter failing to score. Williams have not scored any points in Mexico City since 2017, while Alfa Romeo have scored in three of the last four races here.
