Apart from this tournament, as on Friday he withdrew, there is something the all conquering Ronnie O’Sullivan definitely won’t be winning this season; The £150,000 BetVictor series bonus.
With the German Masters coming up this week in Berlin then the Welsh Open in Llandudno middle of February still to come, current rankings leader Judd Trump is the red hot favourite to walk away with the coffer – a lead of £101,500 to Barry Hawkins could be insurmountable. Unless Hawkins produces some of his early season form and makes the final here at the Tempodrom, Trump will win the dollar before the trip to North Wales.
A 13th edition at the 2,500 capacity amphitheatre, this place is a firm favourite of all the tour players, where the German public come in their droves, year in year out.
It’s quite fitting that the tournament trophy is named after the man who brought this event to this city in 2011, Brandon Parker.
Parker was Shaun Murphy’s long term manager and best friend, but sadly died in July 2020, therefore theres no doubt this event is very special to the 2005 World champion.
In the second half of last season, Murphy was in sterling form making the semi-final of the World Grand Prix, the final of the Welsh Open then won the Players and Tour Championship. World champion Luca Brecel might argue this fact but after his Championship league victory in July, Murphy was probably the best player in the world. I wouldn’t say Murphy’s performances have dipped dramatically but he’s been hitting the odd snag, predominately losing close matches with 6 losses either in a decider or by a two-frame margin.
I feel they can be passed over as his scoring this term has been particularly eye-catching. He’s struck 23 centuries so far at a rate of one made every 5.26 frames he wins which proves his game is in good order. Two of Murphy’s season centuries came in the 6-2 loss to O’Sullivan in the semi-final at the Masters which is no disgrace given his exploits and thankfully for him and the rest, no O’Sullivan in sight here.
I would expect the Magician to get off to a winning start at the venue over Xu Si, a player he’s beaten three from three previously and only conceded one frame to in the process. It’s a tournament Murphy is yet to win but he’s lost in three semis here in 2012, 2018 and 2020 then the final in 2015, 9-7 to Mark Selby.
Hopefully emotions won’t get the better of him if he does make a 27th ranking final on Sunday week. He’s a winner waiting to happen this week.
With O’Sullivan out of Quarter 3, the prices have plummeted somewhat. Selby is now the favourite in this section though has a tricky assignment with Hong Kong’s Marco Fu in his opener. Fu has beaten Selby just six times from 19 however four of the last five meetings of best-of-9 or 11, Fu has been the victor. Selby has been relatively consistent this season but still no title to his name. Furthermore, his record in this event has been shoddy for a long while. He failed to qualify in three of the last four years and hasn’t been past the last 16 since winning it in 2015. For me, he must be taken on.
But with who? A player who has good form overseas in ranking events is David Gilbert. The Angry Farmer made the final here in 2019, losing 9-7 to Kyren Wilson. Prior to that, he made two finals in China, losing in both.
On 10 occasions in his career, he’s made at least the quarter-final abroad so he warrants plenty of respect though his overall record here bar the run in 2019 is poor.
Gilbert’s best showing this season was a quarter-final in Belfast at the Northern Ireland Open losing in a decider to Barry Hawkins 5-4. He’s been involved in nine deciders overall and won five of them though losing to Hawkins, Selby and Kyren Wilson is no disgrace. With a touch more luck, he might have had a couple of deep runs.
It’s disappointing to see the former top 16 player down at 31 in the rankings – he is so much better than that. Many players would die to have his cue action. There’s always been a slight lack of belief for Gilbert, and after winning his first ranking title at the Championship league in 2021, he hasn’t kicked on enough for my liking. I don’t want to sound like a negative Nancy but he hasn’t gone past the quarter-final stage of a flat 128 ranker since making the semi-final of the 2019 Scottish Open (Championship league is a group based event). Again, that is poor for such a fabulous talent.
So no time like the present. The first match here in Berlin is a massive match for Gilbert as the draw looks to be kind to him thereafter. He would be my favourite on paper to make the quarter-final though when did anything on paper matter? He’s played his opponent, Antrim’s Jordan Brown on four past occasions, losing all four including this season at the International Championship and in qualifying for this event in 2019. He won’t need reminding what a bogey player Brown is. A win will undoubtably trigger some extra inner confidence.
It was positive to see Gilbert qualify on Saturday evening for the Welsh Open beating another guy who’s had the indian sign over him in the past, Ken Doherty. Very convincing too: 4-0 with breaks of 136, 68, 66 & 62 and letting Doherty get just 15 points overall.
Gilbert is definitely the type who can do some damage this week and recapture the form that took him to number 10 in the world in November 2019.
Selections
Shaun Murphy – 12/1
David Gilbert – 33/1
