The new year dawns upon English football’s fourth tier. Our EFL pundit Gab Sutton reflects upon an enthralling 2023 in League Two and gives his predictions for the coming year.
Surprise packages
Barrow
Although… we genuinely did put Barrow 3rd in our League Two Season Preview. The feature is no longer available, so you’ll just have to trust us. Honest, guv.
The Bluebirds rose from 22nd and 20th-placed finishes to 9th last season (Pete Wild’s first in charge) and they’ve continued that upward trajectory.
2022-23’s side was all about high-energy pressing, but this team can manage games in different ways. They have added experience in James Chester, David Worrall and Jamie Proctor.
Wild’s side have a sturdy defence, a workmanlike midfield, and a strike-pairing of Emile Acquah and Dom Telford. The former is a real handful, bringing the kind of physicality the attack didn’t have last season, while the latter is a clinical poacher.
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe are very much ahead of schedule on their rebuild, following relegation from League One in 2022.
Last season was all about getting back to basics, which they achieved, with some panache towards the end, and Lee Bell now has them challenging for the Play-Offs in a season that was meant to be all about developmental and stylistic transition.
Not only that, Bell has navigated a horrendous injury crisis. Moreover, he’s done so with a squad that would initially have been considered to lack depth, highlighting both his tactical flexibility, and the spirit he’s cultivated in the group.
In terms of lasting the course, much will depend on how the Alex can replace key defender Connor O’Riordan, having been linked with a move to Blackburn, and how quickly on-loan midfielder Lewis Leigh can settle, with both Jack Powell and Joel Tabiner on the sidelines.
Either way, Crewe are having a fantastic season and a top-10 finish would be a great achievement in a strengthened league.
AFC Wimbledon
Having looked like a collection of individuals in 2022-23, Wimbledon are once again a team this season.
21-year-old Ali Al-Hamadi has been very much the star for the Dons, having scored 13 league goals as well as providing six assists. Replacing the Iraqi’s possible departure will be tough.
Johnnie Jackson’s side are far from a one-man team, though: Al-Hamadi might have been performing at a 9/10, but Alex Bass, Joe Lewis and Jake Reeves have been at a good 8, and you could argue a further 8-10 players have been performing at a 7+/10.
The Wombles have been more of a unit this season, and should be here to stay – whether or not their key man remains.
Flops
Gillingham
Gillingham boss Neil Harris was sacked in October with the team eighth in the table- within two points of the automatic spots, having kept five clean sheets in 11 games.
The call from Brad Galinson wasn’t so much driven by results, more the style of football favoured by the former Millwall boss. This is something they should have known all along, however. It’s much harder to evolve the style in-season.
That’s something Harris’ replacement, Stephen Clemence, is finding in his first stint as a number one, although there’s been some improvement recently with back-to-back 1-0 wins over strugglers Sutton and Colchester.
21 goals in 25 games, though, just isn’t enough for a team with promotion aspirations. It’s partly because, while the Gills aren’t short of quality in their ranks, they are short on pace. The right January additions are a must, therefore, as Clemence seeks to evolve the style whilst keeping the team competitive in the here-and-now.
Bradford City
When Bradford reached the Play-Offs last season, the form of goalkeeper Harry Lewis and striker Andy Cook carried them. Neither have been quite at their best this year, however. The team just hasn’t improved enough in other areas to offset that shortfall.
Boss Mark Hughes was sacked in October with the team languishing in 18th. While there were initial signs of life under both Kevin McDonald (as caretaker) and current incumbent Graham Alexander, they’ve started 2024 with back-to-back defeats which leave them five points off the Play-Offs.
Right-back Brad Halliday has been in excellent form for City. Nevertheless, they’re weak at centre-back, left wing-back, and in attacking midfield with Jamie Walker injured. A season of disappointment thus looks in the offing.
Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster’s early recruitment drive, combined with an ambitious appointment of Grant McCann, prompted optimism that this season for Donny would be a big improvement on last season’s 18th-placed finish.
It hasn’t panned out that way for Rovers, though. An injury crisis has disrupted their team, stopping McCann from naming a settled side, with their marquee summer signing, Richard Wood, particularly missed along with right wing-back Jamie Sterry.
In defence, Owen Bailey has been the only one to show up, the midfield has been hit-and-miss, so while Joe Ironside and West Brom loanee Mo Faal have linked up well in flashes, they’ve not had the foundations of a team that can be successful.
Predictions for 2024
Promotion
Stockport County
After enjoying an Autumnal 12-match winning streak, Stockport have navigated the start of the winter period well because, with a spate of injuries across the full-back positions, midfield and in attack, it was all about ticking over a modest points tally over the festy period, before strengthening in January.
The Hatters have the resources to bring in 3-4 players this month to improve their first XI. Meanwhile, the likes of Louie Barry, Antoni Sarcevic, and Will Collar – so crucial to the aforementioned run – will return around February.
Dave Challinor has already added an all-action left-back in Ethan Bristow, one of the best in the league at Tranmere last season, who should bring quality deliveries for target man Kyle Wootton and the athletic Isaac Olaofe.
With one of the best goalkeepers in the league in Ben Hinchliffe, centre-backs in Mr Reliable Fraser Horsfall, midfield destroyers in Ryan Croasdale and target men in Wootton, County have an excellent spine, and they’ll only get stronger.
Mansfield Town
Mansfield’s promotion pushes in recent years have been undermined by defensive shortcomings. They’re far stronger in that department this year, however.
Aden Flint brings higher league class, Baily Cargill offers promotion-winning knowhow. Lewis Brunt also provides ball-playing talent, on loan from Leicester.
In fact, Brunt has excelled so highly that even when forced out of central defence due to Flint and Cargill’s contributions, he’s kept himself in the team in a midfield role.
Initially, Brunt covered the suspended Louis Reed. However, he played so well in that scenario that Nigel Clough was compelled to pair the two, switching formation to do so from a 4-4-2 diamond to a narrow 4-2-3-1.
The Stags have a goalscorer, too, in Davis Keillor-Dunn, who’s stealthy movement in from the right channel has made him devilishly hard to pick up. The versatile forward already has 14 in League Two for the season, as well as five assists.
Town have better squad depth this season, and their performances suggest a team that’s ready to last the course.
Barrow
Barrow are unbeaten at home this season, with six wins and six draws, and are building quite the fortress at Holker Street.
Moreover, the Bluebirds are under no pressure to win promotion, which means when it gets to the pressure-cooker point of the season, they’ll have the psychology of freely chasing a dream, rather than straining to meet expectation.
The players train in Manchester, and they travel together to every game including the ones at home, which has cultivated a real togetherness within the group – it might just see them over the line…
Wrexham
Wrexham have a ruthless streak.
Phil Parkinson’s 5-3-2 formation has worked for the Red Dragons, even if it gets criticised at times by being on the defensive side. It has a simplicity that allows the team to bring players into the system smoothly, without being too affected by injuries and suspensions.
While the strategy can backfire on certain occasions, it does give the team the ammunition to grow into games and really put the pressure on their opponents towards the end, and Parky has given the Welsh club back a sense of pride, identity and a winning mentality.
On top of that, goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo, midfielder George Evans and striker Paul Mullin are having outstanding seasons for Wrexham. The latter even has another gear to find after missing the start of the season through injury.
They do lack pace in certain areas, though, and may have to secure promotion via the Play-Offs in a suitably Hollywood ending.
Relegation
Sutton United
Matt Gray is a Sutton United legend who worked wonders to get the South London club into the EFL, through winning the National League title in 2020-21. He also had them competitive in League Two for the following two seasons.
Unfortunately, his final season went awry, as Gray was unable to change tack when he no longer had the right wingers to make the 4-4-2 system work, following the departures of David Ajiboye and Will Randall. Replacements Josh Coley and Omari Patrick have lacked their industry, and an 8-0 loss at Stockport was the final straw from the board’s point of view with the team six points adrift at the bottom.
Jason Goodliffe oversaw improvements in his interim stint, with a switch to 4-4-1-1 giving the team better balance and more support in midfield. Four points from four was certainly a positive return from a tough fixture list.
Goodliffe’s loyalty to Gray made it difficult for him to want the job beyond the short spell. It’s Steve Morison that has thus been tasked with keeping the U’s up, poached from step-3 Hornchurch.
Morison has his work cut out, though: the gap is still six points, and the likes of Colchester, Salford and Grimsby all now have experienced EFL managers.
Forest Green
Picking up on the above theme of proven managers coming into this vicinity of the league, it makes even less sense for Forest Green to entrust their survival bid with Troy Deeney.
The veteran striker divided the dressing room, reportedly, as player-coach, and is known to be very outspoken, at a time when a manager has to ‘manage’ conflict in a balanced and dignified way.
Plus, Deeney hasn’t had an extended period to focus just on coaching, so it’s hard to predict with any confidence that he’s ready for the challenge.
It’s been a horrible 18 months for the Nailsworth club due to a multitude of issues, but there’s a lack of accountability off the pitch and a lack of identity on it.
Dark Horses
Tranmere Rovers
Eyebrows were raised when Nigel Adkins was handed the permanent manager’s job in November. What followed, however, was seven wins in 11 league games, making Tranmere one of the form teams in the league.
Key to such form has been the sparkling contributions of winger Rob Apter, on loan from Blackpool, so whether what looked like a season of struggle can turn into an unlikely Play-Off push will depend on whether he remains.
Either way, the team has been playing with more confidence recently, making decisions with a clearer mind and a willingness to take risks, they’ve been better organised, and they’re playing with a 4-4-2 formation that suits the personnel more than the previous 4-3-3 did.
If Apter stays and the right 2-3 additions come in, then maybe Rovers can make a late charge into the mix, like Bolton and Bristol Rovers have done in recent seasons.
*Odds subject to change
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