EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for Friday’s action…
Bristol City to win – 13/8
Birmingham City v Bristol City
Wayne Rooney’s stint at Birmingham felt damned from the beginning, right from how it came about.
Rooney’s agent, Paul Stretford, is close with Blues CEO Garry Cook, which is why his predecessor, John Eustace, was treated appallingly in being sacked with the team 6th and playing superbly back in October.
That had to happen in order for the Man United legend to get the job, when a change of leadership was the last thing the players needed, having been so settled under Eustace.
What followed was nine points from 13 games, clearly relegation form from a side that had looked serious Play-Off contenders.
After two games, Rooney claimed his players weren’t good enough to implement his ideas, which straight away caused something of a divide between he and them, and it’s showing on the pitch.
Visitors Bristol City are in form under Liam Manning, having won 4-1 at Watford last time out to record a third straight victory, with eight goals scored including six different goalscorers.
Manning’s sides, at their best, are nicely balanced and flexible, able to win games in different ways, while the feeling from the dressing room is that the detail provided by the new Head Coach is on a different level to what’s been seen previously.
“Birmingham look a divided camp right now, and the club faces a massive decision as to whether to stick with Wayne Rooney and back him in January, or part company in a bid to change their fortunes. As the window edges ever closer, it’s getting to a crunch point.”
Double Chance: Draw/Stoke – 4/6
Watford v Stoke City
Stoke brought lift-off to Steven Schumacher’s reign with Boxing Day’s 3-1 win at Birmingham.
True, it was a result that came against arguably the worst team in the Championship on current form, but the Potters were able to execute certain patterns of play that can be recognized from Schumacher’s Plymouth Argyle side.
Junior Tchamadeu was outstanding, and League Two’s Young POTY for 2022-23 seems to have made the step up to the Championship, bringing pace and power to his flying right-back role.
Wouter Burger is earning rave reviews in midfield, Bae Jun-Ho is showing promise in attacking midfield, while André Vidigal looks a potent threat out wide.
With those things in mind, Schuey’s side will feel they have the ingredients to put some form together with the personnel available, having enjoyed an extravagant summer window under Alex Neil.
The hosts had a setback on Boxing Day, too, losing 4-1 to Bristol City in a performance that reminded them, after a patch of positive form, that they’re still a work-in-progress.
“Stoke were fantastic at St Andrews on Boxing Day, and while the trip to Watford will be tougher, it seems Steven Schumacher may have found a formula to extract the best from a Potters squad that was expensively assembled in the summer.”
Cheltenham to win – 13/8
Cheltenham Town v Reading
Cheltenham boss Darrell Clarke has done a phenomenal job.
The former Port Vale promotion-winner was brought in with the remit of getting the team fighting, and maybe giving themselves a smidgeon of hope of staying up going into January, but with an acknowledgement of the size of the task and even a willingness to rebuild with him in League Two, but what’s happened since has defied all expectations.
The Robins began the campaign with 13 games, in all competitions, in which none of their players scored so much as a single goal – the only one that went in was a James Gibbons own goal in a 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at Bristol Rovers.
Clarke took charge of the last of those games, a 2-0 home league defeat to Fleetwood, but after Rob Street got their long-awaited first goal in a 1-1 draw with Derby the following Saturday, his side have really grown in confidence.
Predecessor Wade Elliott employed a conservative approach, understandable in some cases and in others, less so, but Clarke wants his side to press high consistently – in some cases, even when his side is leading in a second half with a numerical disadvantage.
It’s partly the influence of Adam Murray, who has worked alongside an extreme pressing connoisseur in Valérien Ismaël at Barnsley, West Brom and Beşiktaş.
It helps that Town have two strikers who fit this style perfectly in George Lloyd and Will Goodwin: both have previously been on the periphery at Whaddon Road, and therefore bring an energy and determination to carve a place for themselves which makes the system work.
Clarke does his best work when he has a core of players who share his mentality, and he has two in Lloyd and Goodwin, as well as the likes of Sean Long, Liam Sercombe and Curtis Thompson.
Reading, by contrast, have a very youthful side, which might hold them back in their bid to beat the drop – despite some positivity that’s come from a four-game unbeaten run – unless they’re able to add some experience in January.
“Cheltenham would be a top 10 side if the season started when Darrell Clarke first took charge, which shows what an astonishing turnaround it’s been from a side that didn’t even score in their first 11 league games, and only accrued one point!”
Oxford draw no bet – Evens
Oxford United v Derby County
Oxford haven’t had quite the start Des Buckingham was hoping for, with two wins in his first seven league games.
Form has seen the Yellows drift out of the automatic promotion conversation, and it looks more a question of whether they’ll finish in the top six.
Nonetheless, a dominant 3-0 victory over Burton, and a late winner against Cambridge has the potential to kick Buckingham’s reign into life, after a sticky start.
The 38-year-old has an excellent coaching reputation from his time at Wellington Pheonix, New Zealand, Melbourne City and Mumbai City, and the U’s were prepared to pay compensation to two organisations – the Indian club and City Football Group – to acquire his services.
Oxford don’t have an in-form centre-forward, which holds them back a little, but Marcus McGuane and Cameron Brannagan is arguably the best midfield pairing in the league, and they have a potential match-winner in Tyler Goodrham.
Derby are in form, but they rely heavily at times on direct winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing to carry the ball forward for them, and they’re not necessarily that well coached in possession as a cohesive unit, despite having quality in Max Bird and Conor Hourihane.
If Mendez-Laing isn’t quite at his best, I think this could be the game that the hosts get the Buckingham era truly up-and-running.
“I feel Oxford have been written off a little hastily based on the small adjustment period required for Des Buckingham, but he’s a fabulous coach who’ll get it right very soon. I think that might be against Derby.”
Double Chance: Draw/Grimsby – 8/15
Salford City v Grimsby Town
Grimsby are undergoing a period of stylistic transition under David Artell.
The first three performances under the former Crewe promotion-winner’s watch were highly encouraging, with plenty of positives from the 1-1 draw at MK Dons, the 2-0 FA Cup loss at Oxford, and the 2-1 victory over his former club.
The following three, meanwhile, have reminded us more of the work still ahead of Artell to get his ideas across, with fewer positives from the 1-1 draw at Newport, the 2-1 defeat to Harrogate, and Boxing Day’s 2-0 defeat at Mansfield.
The 43-year-old must be keen to get to January, because there’s question marks over whether the likes of Michee Efete, Harvey Rodgers, Kieran Green, and to an extent Harry Clifton, can pick up his possession-based ideas, having been used to Paul Hurst’s second-ball game.
However, there are solutions for him to turn to in the meantime, like Toby Mullarkey coming in for Efete, Alex Hunt for Green, and maybe Gavan Holohan for Clifton – there are options to change things around, after a disappointing second half at Field Mill.
Hosts Salford have sacked Head Coach Neil Wood with the team languishing in 21st, just six points above the drop zone, 13 off the Play-Off spots and 18 off the top three.
It’s an imbalanced Ammies squad, though, and they can’t change that until January.
“I can understand why Salford made the decision they did regarding Neil Wood with the team languishing in 21st, but it doesn’t change the fact they have an imbalanced squad, that interim Head Coach Simon Wiles will have to get a tune out of. Visitors Grimsby will be cheered on by around 1K away fans and I see them bouncing back from defeat at Mansfield.”
Wrexham to win – 11/10
Walsall v Wrexham
Wrexham moved two points clear of fourth with a 1-0 victory at Swindon on Boxing Day thanks to James McClean’s winner, as the team held out after James Jones was sent off late on.
McClean started up top with Paul Mullin unable to start due to illness, and veteran target man Steven Fletcher preferred as an option from the bench, and the Irishman brought plenty of energy and drive to the unfamiliar role and took his goal well.
Andy Cannon was excellent in midfield, Anthony Forde and Max Cleworth established a connection from the right side of defence, and Ben Tozer was imperious in the middle of the back-three.
Phil Parkinson’s side can also look to Jacob Mendy for thrust, from left wing-back, and Elliot Lee for inspiration, as the diminutive attacking midfielder continues to shine.
The Red Dragons have injuries, but they should have enough strength in depth to record a fourth straight league victory at Walsall, who are languishing in the bottom half.
The Saddlers have players who are performing well individually, like goalkeeper Jackson Smith, centre-backs Priestley Farquharson and Donervon Daniels, versatile defender Oisin McEntee, left wing-back Liam Gordon, creative midfielder Isaac Hutchinson and striker Freddie Draper.
Despite this, Mat Sadler’s side are yet to find within a strong squad on paper, a blueprint that will allow them to challenge for the Play-Offs.
“Walsall have some good individual players, but they’ve not always looked like a proper unit this season, which is why they’re in the bottom half. And if it’s a game decided by individual quality, I think Wrexham will take them.”
Friday EFL Preview
*Odds subject to change.
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