EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best bets for the weekend’s action
Leicester to win – 6/5
Middlesbrough v Leicester City
Middlesbrough will feel refereeing decisions went against them in last week’s 3-3 draw at Plymouth Argyle, but in another sense they were responsible.
Michael Carrick’s side spurned opportunities to extend their lead when one goal ahead, shortly before Argyle’s four-minute double-salvo. It was the defending for them that really let them down, however.
Boro weren’t sufficiently combative in the middle third. A theme resurfacing from their early season struggles, and their defensive structure was poor. Rav van den Berg is a centre-back by trade, and this was one of the rare occasions that showed, especially with a lack of protection for the right-back.
Those defensive issues were exploited by an Argyle team who do, on their day, have the talent to cause problems. They’re also a newly-promoted side missing their top scorer, however.
Suffice to say, solidification is a must for the visit of Leicester, who could be something of a wounded animal. They lost 1-0 to Leeds last Friday, but the last time they failed to win a Championship match, they subsequently achieved nine league victories on the spin.
There was a lot of scrutiny of the Foxes’ performance last time out. Partly because they’ve set such high standards for themselves: they weren’t a million miles off, just struggled with the final ball.
It may only take a couple of subtle tweaks for Enzo Maresca’s side to be back to their best. Perhaps Kelechi Iheanacho and Yunus Akgün (if fit) or Kasey McAteer coming in for Jamie Vardy and Cesare Casadei respectively, after both struggled on the night.
Vardy doesn’t quite fit the deep-lying role, not unlike a false nine, required from City’s central forward and might be better coming off the bench. Iheanacho, meanwhile, can drop in and link play more naturally, whilst creating space for the wide forwards and on-running midfielders.
Speaking of which, Akgün can bring slicker passing and a greater intensity to the team in midfield, operating perhaps further up the pitch to take some attention away from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
Casadei operates deep, but when you’ve already got Harry Winks dictating play superbly from the base of midfield, Leicester don’t need someone else to do that job and can get away with having another number eight.
With the correct alterations, Leicester should have the quality to unlock Boro, who have conceded 23 goals – the same number as bottom side Sheffield Wednesday.
“With a couple of tweaks, I expect runaway leaders Leicester to be back to their best against a Middlesbrough side for whom early season defensive shortcomings are resurfacing – delighted to get the visitors at an odds-against price.”
QPR to win – 8/5
Queens Park Rangers v Bristol City
Martí Cifuentes has been able to evolve the style at QPR very quickly, on early evidence.
In the previous few games, the Rs had often had 10 men behind the ball, and were pumping hopeful balls down the channel for Sinclair Armstrong to run for, with little to no thought on its consequences.
Masterful motivator though Gareth Ainsworth has been, he was tactically found wanting at Championship level. And although the squad and even the club may not justify Championship survival, the change of manager gives the West Londoners a better chance.
Just five days into the job, Cifuentes coached QPR to a more-assured showing, albeit at fellow strugglers Rotherham. After the 1-1 draw, the Spaniard rejected the media assertion his side had ‘stopped the rot’, instead expressing disappointment at not winning.
It’s a different mentality. One that could breathe fresh life into the club’s season.
With more experienced midfielders like Jack Colback and Andre Dozzell out injured, Cifuentes took a chance on Elijah Dixon-Bonner. The former Liverpool academy product consequently impressing on his first senior start.
Ilias Chair also starred, in a team set up to better utilise his strengths, along with left-back Kenneth Paal, one of the Hoops’ better players under the previous regime. All in all, there’s more hope.
Bristol City, meanwhile, are under new management themselves, as Head Coach Liam Manning – poached from League One high-flyers Oxford – has his first game in charge.
“QPR’s first showing under Cifuentes is something they can take real encouragement from, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they bring that energy into this game against a Bristol City side who are themselves under new management.”
Double Chance: Draw/Barnsley – Evens
Derby County v Barnsley
So far this season, Derby have surged from some performances well short of the mark that have given way to a sense of crisis, to dominant outings reminding us why they were so fancied in the summer.
It might seem churlish to attribute the no-shows to questionable management from Paul Warne, and the five-star showings to the individual quality in the squad.
However, being held to high standards comes with the territory of managing a club of the Rams’ stature and resources. On balance, Warne has fallen short.
Historically, he’s been known to prioritize fitness rather than ball-work, stopping the opposition rather than maximizing own strengths – and sometimes even catastrophizing rather than showing confidence.
Warne undoubtedly has qualities that made him broadly successful at Rotherham. His ability to connect people on an emotional level is almost unique, but his style just doesn’t quite work at a bigger club.
And, while Derby have been able to sweep aside bottom-half opposition in Northampton and Exeter, they’ve amassed just eight points from seven games against the top-half sides.
It’s a similar story for Barnsley, who have three points from five against the top half. The reason to favour the visitors would be the price, however, with Neill Collins’ side deemed significant outsiders.
The Reds are unbeaten in their last five league games. While key midfielder Luca Connell might not be ready to start a big game just yet, Jon Russell has fared well at the base in his absence, forging a strong trio with Callum Styles and Herbie Kane.
“I understand why Derby are favourites, but am not sure visitors Barnsley should be considered significant outsiders, given that both sides have struggled to prove their metal against the better sides in the league.”
Double Chance: Draw/Burton – 7/10
Northampton Town v Burton Albion
Burton boss Dino Maamria showed admirable adaptability in the last league game, a goalless draw with Leyton Orient, switching to a 4-4-2 diamond system in the absence of key winger Kwadwo Baah.
The Brewers congested the midfield and made it difficult for their opponents to fashion openings. While they didn’t create loads themselves, the chances they did carve were presentable ones spurned by Mark Helm and Deji Oshilaja.
With Cole Stockton and Mason Bennett closer to full fitness, too, following a substitute appearances in the goalless FA Cup draw at Port Vale, and possibly Baah, Maamria may have more options to add to a group that’s lost just one of it’s last nine league games, and won four of their last six.
Northampton, on the other hand, are struggling for form. While key men Jack Sowerby and Louis Appere could be back in the match-day squad on Saturday, Jon Brady hinted at easing them back in cautiously. This suggests a place on the bench is the best they can hope for, for now.
The Cobblers had established a strong base-performance level for the first three months of the campaign. No-shows against Bristol Rovers and Derby in the league, and Barrow in the FA Cup, have caused some concern, however.
They should soon recapture that level once they have a fully fit squad, but this could be a tough moment in their season.
“I do back Northampton to pick up once they get a few players back fully fit, but I’m not expecting Jack Sowerby or Louis Appere to be ready to start this one, and I think Burton are vastly underrated having won four of their last six league games.”
Barrow to win – 23/10
Bradford City v Barrow
It’s hard to see Graham Alexander being a solution to Bradford’s problems, after the new manager was appointed on a two-and-a-half year contract this week.
Alexander inherits a lot of challenges at Valley Parade. Ranging from the absence of external investment to the fact they don’t own their stadium or training ground, to a questionable footballing operation which has led to sub-standard recruitment.
No managerial appointment would have solved all these problems overnight, but it was crying out for somebody to implement a clear style of play, and just move things forward a little on the pitch.
Granted, Alexander has won two promotions in his career, with Fleetwood and Salford. Moreover, delivering competitive results at Scunthorpe including a top-six finish in League One.
In those cases, however, the former right-back has had significant budgetary advantages. Furthermore, results have often come in spite of his defensive style and long ball tactics rather than because of them.
Here, the 52-year-old doesn’t have the money to compete with the very best teams in the league. When the financial playing field is levelled, there’s a chance he’ll be found wanting like he was at MK Dons.
Barrow, meanwhile, are on a roll. Unbeaten in eight league games, having not conceded in the last four, and won 3-1 at League One Northampton in the FA Cup last week.
The Bluebirds have a solid, experienced defence, a workmanlike midfield, a physical striker in Emile Acquah, and a partner in Dom Telford who’s been proven to poach for fun at this level previously.
Both Teams To Score – 8/15
Tranmere Rovers v Forest Green Rovers
Tranmere will be hoping the return of Luke Norris from injury can kick-start their season.
Rovers are well stocked with quality wide options, even with Sam Taylor injured. The likes of Rob Apter and Josh Hawkes have shown to be dangerous. Meanwhile, Kieron Morris has previously been one of the most creative players in the league.
Nigel Adkins’ side have missed a focal point, though. Somebody who can bring it all together, which isn’t really Kristian Dennis’ game, nor Charlie Jolley’s.
Tranmere don’t have a classic ball-winner, so the onus will be on Connor Jennings to bring the aggression from a more advanced midfield position, allowing Regan Hendry to step onto second balls and dictate next to Brad Walker, who may play a sitting role.
However, while the hosts will intend to play on the front-foot, Forest Green will feel they can threaten in transitions through Troy Deeney’s Premier League-refined hold-up play, linking with Kyle McAllister and Nathan Holland, and Callum Morton’s pace and stamina.
David Horseman’s side have won two of their last three league games to ease their fears of the drop, and have a squad fuller than what was available two months ago.
Both teams will feel they have the wherewithal to trouble the other, even in a relegation six-pointer.
“There’s reason to think Tranmere will be better going forward now Luke Norris is back, but I also fancy Troy Deeney and Callum Morton to trouble a shaky home defence – can see goals in this relegation six-pointer!”
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