EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action
Wednesday to win – 11/10
Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff City
The impact Head Coach Danny Röhl has made at Sheffield Wednesday is unlike what a lot of supporters have ever seen at Hillsborough.
It wasn’t an instant turnaround for the German in terms of results, who inherited a team that had endured the worst start for a newly-promoted side in Championship history, and saw five defeats in his first six league games.
When the Owls earnt an unlikely point against Leicester, though, before winning three in four, the results didn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
Wednesday are much fitter under Röhl’s guidance, thanks to the work done in November’s international break which almost resembled a mini pre-season, after insufficient work in July under Xisco Muñoz.
The 34-year-old has also shown tactical flexibility, flipping from a 4-4-2 in the first half against QPR to a 3-4-3, with Djeidi Gassama forging a front-three with Bailey Cadamarteri and Callum Paterson.
Gassama’s skill and trickery is coming to the fore under Röhl, while centre-back Akin Famewo has adjusted well to playing left-back, helped again by the improved fitness regime and knowing his roles inside out.
Visitors Cardiff, meanwhile, have slipped into midtable with four defeats in their last five league games, and they’ve looked a tad dry of late.
“Wednesday are on a Röhl right now, and based on the form table since he took charge in mid-October, they’ve taken the same number of points of Cardiff, with far more encouraging performances.”
Sunderland to win – 19/20
Sunderland v Coventry City
It might not be the most commonplace opinion in football right now, but we think Mick Beale is a good appointment.
The 43-year-old, who has penned a contract as Head Coach until summer 2026, has a glamorous coaching career that’s earnt him glowing reviews.
The structure at Sunderland, while imperfect, is way better than he’s worked in previously as a number one, and the delegation of recruitment responsibilities should allow him to focus on what he does best.
The facts that Beale had now-strugglers QPR top of the Championship three months into a season, or the best win % of any Rangers manager in their history, aren’t without nuance that either set of fans will tell you about.
Nonetheless, they do highlight that while there’s areas of his management for him to refine, with the benefit of a couple of months to rest, refresh and reflect on things, it’s not as if he hasn’t got results at previous clubs that ‘look’ highly impressive on paper.
Beale has developed some of the best players in the world, and he now inherits a supremely talented squad, with more experience than he had when he was appointed QPR boss 18 months ago, and the footballing world was extremely excited about the move.
Beale is out with a point to prove, and Sunderland looks a great fit.
Visitors Coventry have solidified of late, with just four goals conceded in seven league games since Mark Robins switched from 3-4-2-1 to 4-2-3-1, but the hosts have a lot more individual quality.
“I like the Michael Beale appointment more than some. I expect him to do well at Sunderland, and get off to a winning start against Coventry. The Sky Blues are resurgent, and have established some good defensive foundations, but they don’t have the quality of their hosts.”
Double Chance: Draw/Stevenage – 3/5
Barnsley v Stevenage
Barnsley won the FA Cup 64 years before Stevenage were even formed in their current guise, so for the two clubs to be playing one another in a league fixture is something of a nosebleed territory for the visitors, especially from the fans perspective.
Steve Evans, though, is an ambitious manager and hasn’t come into League One to make up the numbers: after securing promotion against Grimsby last season, he was in the car on the phone to Nathan Thompson to agree a deal – talk about standards!
Carl Piergianni is another crucial leader at the club, who’s incredibly dedicated and intrinsically motivated, doing an hour or so at the gym before training every day – that’s why he’s the best performing aerial centre-back in League One, despite being average height for a centre-back at 6’2”.
Piergianni, ball-carrier Jordan Roberts and poacher Jamie Reid – third-top goalscorer in League One with 13 goals already – have stepped up impeccably from League Two.
They’ve all benefited from having better players around them as, like summer 2022, most of Boro’s signings have improved them.
Five of the 18 have been roaring successes, a further eight have made valuable contributions, and Harry Anderson has been unlucky with injury – that’s an impressive 72% hit rate.
Boro have really strengthened their squad after promotion, especially in midfield, and that’s enabled them to be League One’s surprise package, flying high in fourth – and they could even move into the top two by Christmas Day!
Hosts Barnsley are hoping to gain on them, and have the potential to put a run together now key midfielder Luca Connell is back available, with the Reds having taken seven points from their last three games.
Neill Collins’ side, though, have taken just one point from six games against top 10 opposition.
“Stevenage are one of League One’s surprise packages this season and I feel they can get a result at Barnsley, who do have Luca Connell back but have struggled to deliver against the better teams in the league.”
Double Chance: Draw/Cheltenham – 8/13
Carlisle United v Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham’s 2-1 loss to Leyton Orient last weekend was a real gut-wrencher for Darrell Clarke’s side.
Ben Williams’ dubious red card midway through the first half meant the Robins had to dig deep for the rest of the game to get something, and 10-men produced a truly gallant effort.
They kept Orient at bay in the first half, whilst creating the odd opening themselves, and in the second they were clearly the better team despite the disadvantage.
The work ethic of strikers George Lloyd and Will Goodwin, who previously might have been considered reserve options at Whaddon Road, meant they kept the pressure on the ball in their 4-3-2 shape, and penned their visitors in for long spells, creating plenty of chances to add to Goodwin’s penalty.
It was only in the last five minutes of normal time where Town ran out off puff and had to defend desperately, at which point the visitors, through good substitutions, made their advantage count.
Nonetheless, if Cheltenham put in that level of effort at Carlisle, they have a great chance of recording a vital result.
The Cumbrians are anticipating a busy January, partly because key players like Paul Huntington, Fin Back and Callum Guy all injured, and partly because they didn’t strengthen well enough in the summer, and their current squad isn’t quite up to League One level.
United should improve after the window, so the timing of the fixture is rather convenient for the visitors.
“Cheltenham put in such a gallant effort against Leyton Orient last week, with 10-men, and if they can take some heart from that showing, I expect them to be competitive at Carlisle.”
Accrington Stanley to win – 11/10
Accrington Stanley v Walsall
Stanley possess a solid home record this season, having won six in 12 at the Wham Stadium in the league, accruing 13 points from six against bottom half opposition.
The Reds aren’t quite at full strength, with injuries to goalkeeper Toby Savin, defender Jay-Rich Baghuelou, winger Shaun Whalley, stalwart Sean McConville, pressing #10 Tommy Leigh, and ‘baby Zigic’ Josh Andrews hitting them.
It’s been a youthful bench for Accy of late, with Kelvin Mellor being the only non-academy graduate watching from the dugout in the 3-3 draw at Crewe.
Alex Henderson came on for Rosaire Longelo at Gresty Road, and the versatile midfielder impressed with similar tenacity to Liam Coyle, but even a touch more composure in possession – the Accy born-and-bread Stanley fan will surely become a terrace favourite straight away.
Another is Brad Hills, who’s having an astonishing season on loan from Norwich in central defence, showing maturity beyond his years.
Boss John Coleman just has a knack of finding a way in spite of whichever limitations and restrictions he has to face, and we’ve seen that again this season.
Walsall have probably the stronger personnel, but Head Coach Mat Sadler is unproven and is yet to convince.
“Accrington Stanley are reliable at home, especially against bottom half opposition, so I see them beating a Walsall side who were fortunate to pick up all three points last week.”
Tranmere and Over 1.5 goals – 19/10
Tranmere Rovers v Swindon Town
Rovers lost 1-0 at Walsall last weekend, but they created more than enough chances, with only a man-of-the-match performance from opposing goalkeeper Jackson Smith keeping them out.
That was just the first defeat in six league games for Nigel Adkins’ side, who are making steady progress from their early season dice with the drop.
Rovers have already opened up a six point cushion to safety, although Forest Green have two games in hand, and are hoping to extend it further to make the rest of their season more comfortable.
The Wirral outfit have one of the best sets of wide options in League Two, in the creative Kieron Morris, the direct Harvey Saunders, magician Josh Hawkes and Rob Apter, who’s in sparkling form with five goals in his last seven games in league and cup.
Luke McGee is one of the best goalkeepers in the fourth tier, too, and with Tom Davies and Jordan Turnbull starting to correct their form in central defence, and Brad Walker defying his doubters in midfield alongside the assured Regan Hendry, they have a template to climb the table.
Swindon could be doing the opposite.
Michael Flynn’s side have conceded 43 goals from 15 games in all competitions, including seven leaked in an FA Cup loss to Aldershot.
Town have been carried by the contributions of loan stars Dan Kemp and Jake Young, who will almost certainly be recalled this January by MK Dons and Bradford respectively, while the club has been sanctioned by the EFL.
“I’m worried about Swindon plummeting, because their recent defensive record has been horrendous, their best attacking players are set to be recalled, and they’re in off-field bother too. Tranmere have taken four more points from one fewer game since the start of November.”
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*Odds subject to change.
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