EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action.
Watford to win – 6/4
Preston North End v Watford
After a dip of nine points from 12 games, Preston North End have steadied the ship by accruing four points from their last two.
The point and clean sheet at Norwich were welcomed, even with a performance not exactly bursting with attacking intent, as a means of stabilizing following a three-game losing streak.
Ryan Lowe’s men built on the foundations laid at Carrow Road by winning 3-1 at Huddersfield on Tuesday, showing far more of what they’re capable of going forward.
In that game, the Lilywhites seem to find the balance they’ve been striving for all season, in terms of maximizing their most technically capable players, whilst also having a core of players who bring the spirit, tenacity and drive, maintaining the defensive standards we saw earlier in the campaign.
While that performance was hugely encouraging, though, it came at a struggling, out-of-sorts Huddersfield side, and we’ve not seen whether it can be replicated against stronger opposition.
Watford certainly are, and while they wouldn’t quite still be classed as one of the form teams in the league after taking just a point from promotion contenders Southampton and Ipswich, they have taken 17 points from their last seven games against sides outside the top six.
The left-sided combination of Jamal Lewis, Ismaël Koné and Ken Sema has been key for the Hornets, while Edo Kayembe and Jake Livermore are defying their doubters in midfield, and Wesley Hoedt continues to thrive in central defence.
As such, the best angle for this game may be found in the goalscorer markets, and North End’s Alan Browne has scored three goals in his last six starts at club level.
Out of all the central midfielders who have started a double-figured number of Championship games in 23/24, only six average more shots from inside the penalty area per 90 than Browne’s 0.9.
The Irishman brings drive and verve to the Lilywhites, playing at times like a fan would if they were on the pitch, and he just loves to break into the box, as he did for his header at Huddersfield last time out.
“Out of all the central midfielders who have started a double-figured number of Championship games in 23/24, only six average more shots from inside the penalty box per 90 than Alan Browne’s 0.9.”
Middlesbrough to win – 11/10
Swansea City v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough need a reaction, after three consecutive league defeats have seen Michael Carrick’s side drop from 9th to 13th.
Although Wednesday’s 2-1 home loss to Hull was disappointing performance wise, though, which has got some fans frustrated, the form isn’t too much to worry about, in the sense they’ve faced exclusively top seven opposition.
They’re missing an athletic midfield enforcer against the top sides, but against middling and lesser opponents, the experience of Jonny Howson should be enough, protection wise, and Dan Barlaser ought to be able to dictate – Hayden Hackney is close to a return too.
And, when the Teessiders can do that, they have the pace of Isaiah Jones, the craft of Morgan Rogers and the movement of Emmanuel Latte Lath, or the guile of Sammy Silvera, the selfless running of Sam Greenwood, or the athleticism of Josh Coburn.
Swansea have taken a respectable four points from two games under the interim guidance of Alan Sheehan, but they were struggling at Rotherham before Daniel Ayala’s red card changed the complexion, and showed resilience but not much quality or flow to earn a point at Stoke in midweek.
“Middlesbrough haven’t quite been at the level required in the last two games, but I expect a reaction from Michael Carrick’s side at managerless Swansea.”
Northampton to win – 29/20
Carlisle United v Northampton Town
Carlisle and Northampton went into the season in a similar boat, content with mere survival after promotion in dramatic fashion last year, but they’ve peeled away from one another in the last five weeks, having begun November level on points.
The Cumbrians have the long-awaited takeover finalized, which is great news for the long-term, and even the mid-term picture of the remainder of the season, with a large January budget promised to legendary manager Paul Simpson – but it’s also added to short-term dilemmas.
Simpson has faith in a small core of the squad that helped him win promotion last season, including presumably Jon Mellish and Owen Moxon (who hasn’t yet signed a new contract), but he’s losing faith with a lot of them.
As the next transfer window approaches, Simmo has come across increasingly open about the likelihood of a high-volume of departures, and existing players not being in his mid/long-term plans, catalysed by heavy 5-1 and 3-0 defeats at Reading and Blackpool respectively.
Understandable? Perhaps. But the prudence of sending out that message can be questioned, because United have four crucial games before the window opens, two of which being relegation six-pointers – lose all of them and they’d be about seven points off safety, having played a game more than most of the teams around them.
As such, Simpson is half giving up on the very players he needs, right now, to keep 20th and above within striking distance.
Northampton are in a different situation: the newcomers have established a strong base performance level across the first half of the season, even if it’s taken them until November to put together a run of four wins in five that has propelled them into midtable.
It’s no less than the Cobblers deserve, because they have a group of aggressive centre-back Sam Sherring, workhorse left-back Patrick Brough, tenacious midfielder Jack Sowerby and selfless forward Kieron Bowie who have been a consistent 7/10 all season.
Steady right-back Akin Odimayo, defensive lynchpin Jon Guthrie, and midfield all-rounder Shaun McWilliams would come into that bracket when fit, likewise young goalkeeper Max Thompson when he’s come in for Lee Burge.
Then, you get to your 8/10s: playmaker Marc Leonard, creative maestro Mitch Pinnock and goalscorer Sam Hoskins, who have really brought the X Factor to Sixfields on top of that solid base.
When Teyn have their best XI all available, it’s really hard to find a position where you’d fault anyone – we’ve ended up going through the whole team!
“Paul Simpson appears to be making public his loss of faith in existing personnel, and is so obviously keen to get to January, when he’ll have the funds to strengthen the squad. For now, though, that puts his side in an awkward position against an in-form Northampton side.”
Wigan draw no bet – 13/10
Port Vale v Wigan Athletic
Port Vale ended a winless run at 11 games with a 1-0 win at relegation rivals Exeter on Saturday, a much needed boost for Andy Crosby’s out-of-form side.
The Valiants have a midfield that was considered one of the strongest in League One at one stage, with Sheffield United loanee Oli Arblaster and the more experienced Funso Ojo starring at the base, and a plethora of appealing options.
Nonetheless, they’ve been weaker in other areas, especially when Alex Iacovitti had been absent on the left side of the three-man defence, while none of the forwards have got going yet this season.
As such, it’s a case of ticking over a few points between now and January, hopefully including a win or two in the remaining four game, then smoothening some of those rough edges.
Visitors Wigan, though, have conceded just one goal in their last 598 minutes of football in all competitions, as Shaun Maloney’s side re-establish the solidity we saw from them under his guidance in the Championship last season.
A couple of months ago, we were talking about the Latics as a youthful, naïve side liable to rookie errors, but while they’re still a touch whet behind the ears, the likes of Kelland Watt and Sean Clare have made a real impact in defence of late, extracting the most out of the talents of Sam Tickle, Charlie Hughes and Liam Morrison.
Like Tickle and Hughes, midfielder Baba Adeeko has enjoyed a meteoric rise, with the energetic ball-carrier going from being last season’s hot prospect to this year’s first name on the teamsheet.
Partly through shortage of alternative options, Adeeko has recently been entrusted with playing alongside someone even less experienced than he is in another academy prospect in Scott Smith, who has stepped up brilliantly so far this month.
Smith has always been intelligent off the ball, but recently he’s made strides on it and is coming on leaps and bounds, as another product of the Latics’ highly successful academy.
With just one defeat in their last nine league games, or one in 14 in all competitions, Wigan’s young guns should return from Burslem having added to their points tally.
“Wigan are building a talented young team, and they’ve lost just one of their last 14 in all competitions, having stabilized things nicely after starting the season with a points deduction, whereas hosts Port Vale have won one in 12.”
Grimsby to win – 31/20
Newport County v Grimsby Town
Even for those who were impressed with the David Artell appointment in the first place, it’s surprising how quickly he’s been able to implement his ideas.
Sure, the former Crewe promotion-winner inherited a capable squad on paper, but it was one used to the more direct methods of predecessor Paul Hurst.
After one training session under the 43-year-old, Artell delivered a highly encouraging performance at in-form Play-Off chasers MK Dons in a 1-1 draw, an even better one at League One high-flyers Oxford in the FA Cup, albeit in a 2-0 defeat, before getting that first victory last Saturday, over his former employers.
Kamil Conteh and Alex Hunt have been the star performers in midfield, providing control and creativity respectively, and look capable of forging the kind of synergy Ryan Wintle and Tommy Lowery once had at Gresty Road – Harry Clifton being a bit like a younger Paul Green: aggressive and tenacious.
Elsewhere, Toby Mullarkey, Harvey Rodgers and Niall Maher have rekindled the defensive understanding they had earlier in the season with left-back Anthony Glennon, who impressed with two assists in the 2-1 victory.
Abo Eisa also caught the eye with a stunning strike following a short corner straight off the training ground, and springy, industrious front-man Danny Rose remains a reliable focal point at this level, as well as getting among the goals with a back-post header.
Hosts Newport lost 2-1 at Tranmere last time out, with Graham Coughlan’s side unable to sustain a competitive first half showing into the second period.
“Grimsby are off-and-running under David Artell, having got their first win of his reign against Crewe last week, and all three performances under him have been encouraging. I fancy them to secure back-to-back victories at a jaded Newport side.”
Barrow to win – 29/20
Swindon Town v Barrow
It’s hard not to worry a little bit for Swindon, despite them occupying a top half birth.
Town already have one of the worst defensive records in League Two, having conceded () goals in () games, as well as having shipped seven to National League side Aldershot in the FA Cup.
Their two best attacking players, Jake Young and Dan Kemp, are on loan from fellow League Two clubs, Bradford and MK Dons respectively.
Young is the top goalscorer in the division, while Kemp (has been directly involved in the most goals and assists combined), and the prospect of them with the same defensive issues but without those two isn’t an appetising one.
Plus, the Wiltshire club could be given a points deduction based on alleged financial irregularities, and the uncertainty won’t help things either.
Barrow are a far stabler ship, with an experienced defence, a workmanlike midfield, and a strike-pairing of Emile Acquah and Dom Telford that’s a real threat, with the former’s physicality and industry and the latter’s poaching instincts.
Last season, the Bluebirds were a high-pressing, transitions side but, when that style stopped working, they ran out of ideas somewhat and the Play-Off contenders dropped to ninth.
This season, Pete Wild’s side have added experience in James Chester, David Worrall and Jamie Proctor, and it’s allowed them to manage games in different ways.
Often, young managers are reticent to sign older players because of the perceived challenge of earning their respect, but Wild welcomes seasoned voices who he feels can add to the leadership of the team.
“Swindon’s charge from the EFL adds to an uncertain time for the Wiltshire club, who have the joint-second worst defence in League Two, will lose their two star on loan forwards in January, and could possibly get a points deduction – but visitors Barrow are flying, in league terms.”
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*Odds subject to change.
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