EFL pundit Gab Sutton previews the weekend’s action and gives his best bets, including a change of fortune for Wayne Rooney.
Birmingham to win and Both Teams To Score – 5/2
Birmingham City v Rotherham United
With just two wins from their first 18 league games, and 37 goals conceded, Rotherham look to be hurtling towards League One.
The Millers desperately need a manager in, after sacking boss Matt Taylor following the 5-0 loss at Watford just before the international break.
However, the experienced, Championship-proven profile of manager that owner Tony Stewart has said what he wants is proving difficult to attract.
The South Yorkshire outfit face four of the top 10 in the next seven games, so by the time it gets to January, they could be cut adrift. Some experienced managers will feel they can get better offers, and up-and-coming ones don’t want to take the significant risk of adding a relegation to their CV.
As such, the job is something of a hot potato, although there are rumours that Nathan Jones is set to be appointed.
In fairness to interim boss Wayne Carlisle, he delivered a spirited second half against Leeds last Friday which earnt Rotherham a valuable point. He has also got the best out of forwards Fred Onyedinma and Sam Nombe, but Tuesday’s 4-1 tonking by Hull showed just how much work is ahead.
Birmingham will need to iron out the defensive errors from Tuesday’s 4-2 loss at Blackburn, but they played some good football in patches and are hoping to take that into Saturday’s game.
“If Birmingham play the kind of football we saw in the first half at Blackburn in midweek, whilst cutting out some of those individual errors, I see them beating a struggling Rotherham side and possibly knocking in a few goals, although Sam Nombe might also find the net for the visitors.”
Hull to win – 5/4
Hull City v Watford
At half-time of Hull’s 2-2 draw at Swansea last Saturday, Head Coach Liam Rosenior brought right-back Cyrus Christie on for centre-back Sean McLoughlin, shifting right-back Liam Coyle to left-back, then Greaves into his natural position of central defence.
It worked a treat, as the Tigers rescued a point from a two-goal deficit, and the same formula saw the Humberside outfit thump Rotherham 4-1 on Tuesday.
The back-four morphs into a back-three at times, with Christie inverting into midfield and Coyle tucking in, opening up angles for Alfie Jones, on the right of the trio, to show the passing ability that’s seen him play at the base of midfield earlier in his career.
The back-three in certain phases, also allows Greaves to become something of a roaming libero, and the one-two he played with Scott Twine to sit Grant Hall on his backside before going one-on-one with the goalkeeper, albeit slotting wide, epitomizes the confidence this team is playing with.
Nobody’s playing with more confidence than Jaden Philogene, who tormented the Millers on the left wing, and produced a backheeled finish reminiscent of Thierry Henry against Charlton in 2004-05.
Visitors Watford are having a rebuilding season under Valérien Ismaël and, despite strong form and positive recent performances, midtable looks the best they can hope for.
“Hull are brimming with confidence right now, which is why I see the Play-Off prospect defeating in-form Watford. Jaden Philogene is arguably the best player in the Championship on current form!”
Ipswich to win – 4/5
Ipswich Town v Coventry City
Coventry beat Plymouth Argyle 1-0 in midweek, and it’s hard to begrudge Mark Robins’ side the victory on the balance of chances.
The Sky Blues got into the better areas, and it was bad decision-making in the final third that stopped them from creating clear cut chances, or taking the ones they did create.
It was a mixed bag from Tatsuhiro Sakamoto and Haji Wright, the former being agile and elusive on the right, the latter powerful and direct when he stretched his legs on the left, but neither quite found their end product until Wright’s finish 15 minutes from time.
Mark Robins’ side have been far more organised since the switch from 3-4-1-2 to 4-2-3-1, with Bobby Thomas and Liam Kitching forging a pairing in central defence, after working together at Barnsley last season.
It’s also worth noting, though, that the Sky Blues haven’t face a side outside the bottom eight during their run of three consecutive clean sheets, and their rear-guard will be stretched to the extreme at Portman Road.
Ipswich were a joy to watch in their midweek 3-1 win over Millwall, with the game wrapped up by half-time, as Leif Davis rekindled his excellent left-sided partnership with Nathan Broadhead.
The Tractor Boys have scored a whopping 28 goals in nine games on familiar soil and could be tough to stop.
“Ipswich have partnerships and relationships everywhere you look, from Luongo and Morsy, to Davis and Broadhead, to Broadhead and Chaplin, to Chaplin and Hirst – they all know each other’s game inside out and that telepathic understanding makes a massive difference on the pitch. I see them defeating Coventry, despite three straight clean sheets for the Sky Blues – all against bottom-eight opposition.”
Argyle to win – 8/5
Plymouth Argyle v Stoke City
Plymouth Argyle’s contrast in home and away fortunes continued in midweek with a 1-0 loss at Coventry.
The result means Steven Schumacher’s side have taken over five times more points at Home Park (16) than they have away from Devon (3), scoring 22 goals in nine on familiar soil, as opposed to seven from the same number of league road trips.
Argyle were a couple of gears off the best, as star players like Finn Azaz, Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba didn’t quite produce the goods.
Nonetheless, it was still clear what they were trying to do, and they were largely well-organized whilst producing some nice patterns of play.
Lewis Gibson was outstanding in central defence, too, and has been arguably Argyle’s best player this season.
There’s every reason to think things amalgamate for Argyle, when they host a Stoke side winless in four, and reliant on the individual quality of Bae Jun-Ho.
“Plymouth Argyle are the second-most prolific home goalscorers in the Championship, having scored 22 in nine in Devon. When Finn Azaz, Bali Mumba and Morgan Whittaker are on their game, they can be really tough to contain.”
Double Chance: Draw/Cardiff – 13/10
Southampton v Cardiff City
Southampton’s 1-0 win over Bristol City in midweek extended their unbeaten run to 10 games, keeping them seven points clear of seventh spot and eight off second.
The Saints’ defensive issues that led to September’s four-game losing streak appear to have been largely addressed, although their previous opponents were able to create two big chances in the first half, one from a set piece, the other from a counter-attack.
Russ Martin’s side can still be got at, despite their form, and they’re still missing a ruthless edge up top, with Charly Alcaraz continuing to get the nod as a makeshift false nine, over Ché Adams and Sékou Mara.
As such, there’s an opportunity for Cardiff to pull off a surprise result.
The Bluebirds boast a solid centre-back pairing of Dimitrios Goutas and Mark McGuinness, tenacity in midfield in Manolis Siopis and Joe Ralls, technical quality in the ex-Crewe contingent of Perry Ng and Ryan Wintle, plus a strong one-v-one wide man in Josh Bowler.
Bowler will be hoping to cause havoc in transitions with his pace and trickery, against a Southampton side that’s set up for in possession purposes, and hasn’t always been well-prepared to deal with counter-attacks.
“Southampton are in good form and they’re rightly favourites, but 13/10 on Cardiff to avoid defeat looks a tad chunky to me, for a side that’s been something of a surprise package, sitting proudly in ninth, and have conceded three fewer goals than 2nd-placed Ipswich, as well as six fewer than their hosts.”
Double Chance: Northampton/Draw – 7/10
Northampton Town v Portsmouth
Northampton have spent much of their season hovering just above the relegation zone, similar to their previous stint in League One.
In 2020-21, however, the Cobblers had an atrocious record against anyone outside the bottom eight when Keith Curle was in charge, and there was a strong feeling that they would ultimately drop into the bottom four, which they did due to the form of teams around them, despite the improvement under Jon Brady.
This time around, Teyn have been in a similar position, but the performance levels have always inspired confidence that they were more likely to haul themselves into lower midtable than plummet into the drop zone.
Just about everyone has played their part in a strong base performance level, so the three consecutive league wins haven’t come as an enormous shock internally, even if the midweek 2-1 victory at Blackpool raised a few eyebrows.
Northampton possess one of the top midfielders in the league in Marc Leonard, who has sumptuous touch and vision, forwards in Mitch Pinnock and Kieron Bowie who can conjure up something out of nothing, and a clinical goalscorer in Sam Hoskins on top of a solid base.
Saturday could be a tough assignment for Portsmouth, who lost 4-0 at home to Blackpool the previous Saturday, and were unconvincing 2-0 victors at Burton in midweek.
“Portsmouth have been a touch off-key, performance wise, for a couple of months now, and John Mousinho’s side are going to a Northampton outfit that have won their last three in the league: the Cobblers can give anyone a game on their day.”
EFL Weekend Preview
*Odds subject to change
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