EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action – he offers a 13/2 anytime goalscorer pick in League One…
Hull draw no bet – 21/20
Hull City v Southampton
The Tigers were outstanding in the first half of their 2-2 draw at Millwall, just before the international break. Liam Rosenior’s side will be keen to draw on the positives of that showing.
Hull boast a strong centre-back pairing of Alfie Jones and Sean McLoughlin. Jacob Greaves, meanwhile, forges a three from left-back when Cyrus Christie moves forward from right-back, giving them fine balance.
Jean-Michael Seri conducts the midfield nicely. Going forward they have the threat of Jaden Philogene, who has looked incredibly dangerous in recent weeks for club and country, with a stunning brace last week for England Under-21s.
Philogene’s penetrative runs could be tough to contain for Southampton, who have looked disorganised this season. 21 goals conceded – only strugglers Rotherham have shipped in more.
The Saints drew 1-1 with the Millers before the international break, and after going ahead three minutes in, they had a host of golden opportunities to put the game to bed in an impressive start.
There was an unforeseen stoppage, though, which arrested momentum, along with questionable substitutions. Most notably, the second half withdrawal of Kamaldeen Sulemana, their star performer, and Adam Armstrong, who had been key to the press.
Southampton still had a similar volume of chances in the second half to the first, and seeing as the visitors scored from an xGF of 0.07, there’s an argument that they were unlucky.
On the flip side, this was against a Rotherham side who showed very little ambition, and when they did come forward, the fragility in this Saints side was immediately apparent.
Which begs the question: how will they cope when they face a side with better quality and more attacking intent?
“Hull and Southampton both like to play patient football on the deck, but the difference is the Tigers are better balanced and don’t have a soft underbelly, which is why I think they get into the top six this season and their visitors don’t.”
Middlesbrough to win – 8/11
Middlesbrough v Birmingham City
The Boro extended their winning streak to four league games in the best way possible. Indeed, they went into the international break off the back of a 4-0 thrashing of rivals Sunderland.
Michael Carrick’s side looked superbly coached as a collective, but it was hard to avoid the individual performances of Isaiah Jones, Sam Greenwood and Hayden Hackney.
Having been the exuberant midfielder buzzing around Jonny Howson last season, Hackney has embraced the holding role with real maturity.
Greenwood, meanwhile, brings a selfless energy to the attack, not too dissimilar to Aaron Ramsey last season, and created space for those around him.
The star of the show, though, was Jones. A classic attacking wing-back in his best season for the club (2021-22) attacking the by-line, the 24-year-old’s current remit allows him to cut inside from the right flank and carry a goalscoring threat too.
With Matt Crooks as the third midfielder as opposed to Morgan Rogers, for instance, the system resembles a 4-3-3 rather than a 4-2-3-1 as the former drops deeper, allowing his right-sided counter-part to attack.
Elsewhere, Dan Barlaser looks after the ball so well, and is starting to look more like the midfielder Middlesbrough initially thought they signed from Rotherham. Paddy MacNair and Dael Fry are marshalling the back-four superbly, while goalkeeper Seny Dieng is getting better by the game.
Middlesbrough have momentum, whereas Birmingham – despite having won back-to-back league games to go sixth – are in a transitional period after a controversial change of manager.
Based on performances, new leadership was the last thing the players needed. John Eustace wasn’t treated as well as he might have been by the hierarchy, even if Wayne Rooney’s appointment made sense from a commercial point of view.
The result could be a short-term loss of momentum…
“I’m not sure the Wayne Rooney fanfare will necessarily help Birmingham in his first game in charge. It’s a bit of an adjustment period for them, even though they were in good form before he took charge, whereas I think Middlesbrough are in a great position to continue their winning streak.”
Deji Oshilaja to score anytime – 13/2
Burton Albion v Bristol Rovers
Burton extended their unbeaten run to seven league games with last week’s 1-0 victory at Lincoln.
Dino Maamria stayed positive during the Brewers’ tough start. He’s since been vindicated with his side climbing to 13th. Much closer to the kind of form he had supporters dreaming of before the season.
It was a deserved win, too, for Maamria’s troop. They were the stronger side from the start and played the ball around with confidence, especially in the first half.
Forward Josh Gordon continues to improve every game, especially when he plays down the middle and free to turn and get quick snapshots away. Equally so, is left-back Steve Seddon, while wide man Kwadwo Baah is a delight to watch.
With resolute defending led by the impressive Ryan Sweeney, and Joe Powell admirably embracing this season’s deeper midfield role, Burton are on a roll.
Bristol Rovers have dropped below the Brewers after two defeats in three. They have two games in hand on their fellow midtable counterparts, however, and have been unlucky in recent games.
The only thing separating the Gas from the top sides in the league is a clinical centre-forward, and of late they’ve been let down by profligate finishing. They were by far the better team in the first half of the 2-1 loss at Oxford last time out.
However, returning Aston Villa star Lamare Bogarde missed from six-yards out, while Aaron Collins was denied multiple times. Consequently, the nice approach play came to no avail, as Chris Martin is still finding fitness.
Performance wise, they’ve been consistent since the 4-1 win over Wigan in late September, however. Particularly in the final third.
“It’s difficult to oppose either team in the result market, because there’s much to like about both, with Burton’s form and Bristol Rovers’ recent performances. However, I think Deji Oshilaja poses a threat with his powerful late runs into the box, and given the midfielder has scored two in his last five in all competitions, I like the 13/2 on him to score anytime.”
Double Chance: Draw/Wycombe – Evens
Peterborough United v Wycombe Wanderers
2023-24 looked a transitional season in prospect for Wycombe, undergoing stylistic evolution under Matt Bloomfield. After a tough start, however, they’re showing serious Play-Off potential.
The Chairboys begun with successive 3-0 defeats, but have since taken 19 points from the 27 available, courtesy of a 4-1 win at Fleetwood last time out.
The back-three of Chris Forino, Joe Low and Luke Leahy spread right out in possession, which is great for picking up second balls and sustaining pressure.
In midfield, the pairing of Josh Scowen and Freddie Potts complement each other beautifully.
Scowen brings experience, leadership and battling qualities. Potts, meanwhile, brings a delightful touch and vision, as well as an excellent attitude and a willingness to dig in.
Dale Taylor found a rich vein of form on loan at Burton from Nottingham Forest in the second half of last season. While he may have taken a couple of months to recapture that at Adams Park, the 19-year-old grabbed a brace in the 4-1 win at Fleetwood. Just before two Northern Ireland starts out of two in the international break.
That performance at Highbury was arguably the best of Matt Bloomfield’s tenure. Squad depth is such that the likes of Garath McCleary and Sam Vokes – veteran with vast Championship and international experience (and who were star players in 2021-22) – are now often on the bench.
Wycombe are making huge strides and have no-one to fear. They will feel confident of getting a result at Peterborough, even with their hosts unbeaten in six league games.
In that spell, though, the Posh rode their luck at times against Lincoln and Bristol Rovers. Another of their games was against a 10-man Cheltenham side in turmoil. They also enjoyed a numerical advantage at Bolton.
Darren Ferguson’s side are having a good season. After reaching the Play-Offs last season, they are defying some of the nerves that preceded the campaign. They shouldn’t be treated as superior to their opponents, however.
“Freddie Potts is proving to be one of the best players in League One on current form, starring on loan from West Ham. His performance in the 4-1 thumping of Fleetwood was just masterful. I don’t think Wycombe should fear anyone!”
Crewe to win – 2/1
Crawley Town v Crewe Alexandra
Crawley were many people’s tip for relegation before the season. For them to sit proudly in 10th in late October, with 20 points from their first 12 games, is a credit to Head Coach Scott Lindsey and everyone at the club.
Nonetheless, the Red Devils have lost back-to-back games to Doncaster and Wrexham, missing a cutting edge and end product in both those games.
Aaron Henry impressed at the base of midfield, but Liam Kelly was missed alongside the Charlton loanee. Furthermore, the influential Ben Gladwin injured himself again, exposing a lack of depth.
Right wing-back Ronan Darcy wasn’t used often enough, either. While defenders Will Wright, Dion Conroy and Laurence Maguire stood strong, it’s hard to avoid the notion Crawley showed their visitors too much respect at times.
Crewe, meanwhile, are in excellent form.
Since finishing August with a 1-0 loss at Bradford, having controlled much of the play at Valley Parade, they have found their reward with 17 points attained from a possible 24.
Recruits Mickey Demetriou, Jack Powell and Shilow Tracey have settled in very quickly in defence, midfield and attack respectively. Meanwhile, the next generation of academy talent has come on another level.
Connor O’Riordon is starring at the back alongside his more experienced fellow graduate, Luke Offord, and Demetriou. Moreover, the dynamic Joel Tabiner is proving the perfect foil for Powell.
Goalscorers Chris Long and Courtney Baker-Richardson have been able to stay fit, so far, contrary to pre-season doubts. The duo has bagged 12 goals between them.
Sure, the Railwaymen could have seen off Tranmere more convincingly last time out, after their opponents were reduced to 10-men. However, they were clearly the better team for an hour. Particularly early on when they moved the ball around sharply and used the width really well.
Lee Bell is doing an excellent job. Whilst we’re only a quarter of the way into the season, his side are challenging at the top.
“Since playing well in defeat at Bradford, Crewe have taken a commendable 17 points from a possible 24. Lee Bell has reconnected the club with it’s stylistic identity, and the next generation of talent is another year along in it’s development. 2/1 on the away win looks excellent value!”
Notts County to win – 29/20
Gillingham v Notts County
Gillingham owner Brad Galinson wrote on social media on Wednesday that the club is near the end of interviewing 20+ candidates. Those shortlisted will be met next week, meaning Keith Millen will take charge of Saturday’s game.
The Gills are in an awkward position with this next appointment, due to the fact they’re actually well-placed in the league. They sit in seventh and are one point off the automatic promotion spots.
If they opt for a major stylistic sea-change, it could disrupt their rhythm in the short-term. Consequently, damaging their promotion chances.
If they’re too conservative, what was the point in sacking Neil Harris in these circumstances?
It’s a delicate balancing act for a team that needs to find it’s identity, whereas Notts County’s is crystal clear.
The Magpies have just been trounced 4-1 by rivals Mansfield, exposing defensive issues. Luke Williams will have had no choice but to fine-tune things this week.
County’s main problem appears to be the wide defensive areas. They operate with two wing-backs in Aaron Nemane and Sam Austin who are a winger and attacking midfielder by trade. Alongside, wide centre-backs who aren’t aggressive enough.
Richard Brindley, at right centre-back, doesn’t close people down quickly. His best performances have come in the middle of the back-three. Meanwhile, left centre-back Connell Rawlinson isn’t as combative as Kyle Cameron, who was absent last week.
However, there’s a world in which Cameron returns on Saturday, Aden Baldwin moves to right centre-back and Rawlinson shifts into the middle. Moreover, Tobi Adebayo-Rowling comes in for Austin and switches wing-back roles with Nemane.
A couple of subtle tweaks should give Notts a touch more aggression in those wide areas. Consequently, giving them a platform to play the kind of sumptuous football we’ve come to expect from them.
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