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EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action – he starts with a 21/10 shot in the Championship
Hull to win – (21/10)
Millwall v Hull
Millwall have the seventh-best away record in the Championship, and the 18th-worst home.
The stereotype is that the Den is an awkward place to go for visiting sides, but right now it may be more awkward for home teams.
Gary Rowett is a good manager, and over the last four years he’s consistently delivered top six challenges on a bottom six budget, but there’s a demographic of supporters who don’t like his style.
Millwall fans are accustomed to ‘up-and-at-‘em’ football, under Keith ‘Rhino’ Stevens, Mark McGhee and Dennis Wise, then later Neil Harris.
Rowett’s approach is more conservative, and having had some success last season with a 4-2-3-1 formation, he’s reverted to a 5-2-3 with disciplined wing-backs as well as a defensive midfielder in Casper de Norre.
That setup can be effective, as we’ve seen on the road, but it irritates home fans who want a more aggressive, front-foot style, and sometimes that can make the atmosphere work against the hosts rather than for them.
Visitors Hull had been unbeaten in eight league games before a 3-0 loss at Ipswich in midweek, and given how good the Tractor Boys are right now, it would be unfair to alter judgement on where Liam Rosenior’s side are at too much based on that defeat.
Considering they’ve already faced the leagues’ two stand-out sides, and beaten one of them away in Leicester, 16 points from the opening 10 is a sound return for the Tigers, who are hoping Jean Michaël Seri can run the show in midfield.
“Hull have had a great start to the season, and I think Liam Rosenior’s side are underrated for their trip to the Den.”
Huddersfield to win – (17/10)
Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield Town
Darren Moore might have dreamed for more than two points from his first three games at Huddersfield, but with trips to Play-Off outsiders Coventry and Birmingham having sandwiched a hosting of a stellar Ipswich side, it’s still a respectable return.
Moore has had a positive impact on the club in terms of his media-handling and man management, and he inherits a squad which, while missing a sprinkling of stardust, has a solid base.
Goalkeeper Lee Nicholls is an excellent shot stopper, Michał Helik is dominant in the air, while fellow centre-back Matty Pearson is steady and reliable.
With that in mind, the Terriers have the personnel to solidify, and ensure they tick over the points they need to keep the relegation dogfight at arm’s length.
In terms of Saturday’s short trip south, it’s a case of making sure they keep their defensive shape and avoid too many errors, because they’re facing a Sheffield Wednesday side in crisis.
Xisco Muñoz presided over the joint-worst start to a Championship season in the competition’s history, let alone the club’s, and the Owls parted company with the Spaniard after the 1-0 loss at West Brom left them seven points adrift of safety just 10 games in.
Muñoz’s exit is welcomed by supporters, but the biggest problem at Hillsborough is owner Dejphon Chansiri, who intimated in his most recent statement that he would stop funding the club if supporters continued to protest.
As such, it will likely still be a toxic atmosphere at Hillsborough, and Huddersfield will feel they can add to the gloom.
“Although Xisco Muñoz’s exit helps Sheffield Wednesday, I don’t think it should transform the odds for this game because it’s still a club in crisis – I think Huddersfield win if they do the basics well.”
Double Chance: Draw/Blackpool – (4/7)
Charlton Athletic v Blackpool
The two games Kylian Kouassi has started for Blackpool, they’ve won: 4-1 against Reading, and 1-0 at Barnsley, which preceded the midweek home defeat to Derby.
Kouassi was expected to be a more developmental signing for the Pool, seeing as the 20-year-old had 35 league substitute appearances and just five starts for Sutton in League Two.
The forward has got off the mark for the Tangerines already, though, with one goal at Barrow in the EFL Trophy, another against the Royals, and complements strike-partner Jordan Rhodes brilliantly.
Rhodes is a predatory finisher with excellent movement, but at 33 he can’t run in behind as he used to, so Kouassi plays an invaluable role in stretching the play and creating space for others.
Plus, Blackpool look smoother than they were in the first six weeks of the campaign, and are better for Callum Connolly moving into a wide centre-back role, CJ Hamilton shifting to his natural left position, and his corresponding wing-back instead being direct runner Owen Dale.
With James Husband surprising people with his form on the left of a three-man defence, and Kenny Dougall forging a strong midfield pairing with Oli Norburn, Pool could be ones to watch.
Hosts Charlton, meanwhile, are improved under new boss Michael Appleton, having gone four unbeaten, but they still have an imbalanced squad, having to play a centre-back at left-back and a striker on the right side of midfield.
“Blackpool are a different proposition to a few weeks ago, and I don’t expect Neil Critchley’s side to be in the bottom half of the league for long – they could get a third win in four at Charlton, where away fans will be keen to get one over unpopular former manager Michael Appleton.”
Wycombe to win – (9/5)
Fleetwood Town v Wycombe Wanderers
Fleetwood have been much improved under Lee Johnson, having completed back-to-back wins with a 2-0 victory at Cheltenham, making their record seven points from four games under his watch.
Nonetheless, all the Trawlermen’s eight points so far this season have come against bottom-nine opposition, so while they’re undoubtedly making strides, it seems a little premature to consider them favourites for the visit of Play-Off outsiders Wycombe.
The Chairboys have spent each of the previous four seasons either in the Championship or challenging for the top six in League One, and although this is something of a transitional season under Matt Bloomfield, they’ve remained competitive.
The Chairboys boast an embarrassment of riches in defence, where almost any composition of three from Chris Forino, Richard Keogh, Luke Leahy, Joe Low and Ryan Tafazolli could start.
Experienced battler Josh Scowen has forged an excellent midfield pairing with prodigious on-loan West Ham talent Freddie Potts, while the likes of attacking midfielder Killian Phillips and striker Dale Taylor – so impressive in the second half of last season, on loan at Shrewsbury and Burton respectively – aren’t even starting.
The truth is, Wycombe are in a different place to Fleetwood, and the traders seem to have forgotten that based on recency bias and home advantage.
“I don’t want to underestimate the work Lee Johnson has done to start to turn things around at Fleetwood, but I still see them to be some way off the better teams in this league, and Wycombe are unquestionably one of them. The away win at 9/5 is the deal of the weekend.”
Double Chance: Draw/Wimbledon – (4/5)
Mansfield Town v AFC Wimbledon
Mansfield’s EFL Cup run extended into the fourth round thanks to a penalty shootout victory over Peterborough, meaning a home victory over League One Port Vale at the end of October would send them into the Quarter-Finals.
The Stags’ cup run is memorable, but from a league perspective it’s almost the last thing they needed, with a substantial injury list.
Right-back Elliott Hewitt, centre-backs Alfie Kilgour and John-Joe O’Toole, left-back Stephen McLaughlin, midfielder Stephen Quinn and striker Rhys Oates are all absent for Nigel Clough’s side, who have at times found themselves short on depth.
Oates has been a huge miss for Nigel Clough’s side, who can struggle to convert pressure into productivity without his strong running and final third incision.
AFC Wimbledon, on the other hand, look a threat every time they come forward, with Omar Bugiel striking up an excellent strike-pairing with Ali Al-Hamadi.
Bugiel brings selfless hold-up play, allowing Al-Hamadi to channel his athleticism towards poaching, as well as freeing up James Tilley and Josh Neufville to threaten from wide areas.
“Mansfield are some way off having a fully-fit squad, and the shortages haven’t been helped by a congested fixture schedule. Don’t get me wrong, the Stags have been great so far this season and I think they will finish in the top seven, but AFC Wimbledon to avoid defeat at 4/5 is great value.”
Crewe to win – (9/4)
Salford City v Crewe Alexandra
After a positive summer window, there was hope at Crewe that the club might be able to make some modest progress from last season’s 14th-placed finish, but also some realism in that the league itself is stronger too.
With that in mind, most predicted a developmental season in midtable for the Railwaymen, and a Play-Off push was a hope rather than an expectation.
With the number of games played now into double-figures, it’s fair to pay attention to the league table, and for the Alex to be flying high in third, they’ve surpassed all expectations.
Most expected Mickey Demetriou to prove an excellent signing in defence, and strike-up a strong trio with Luke Offord and Connor O’Riordan, who continue to build further on their respective best seasons for the club in 2022-23.
However, the surprise has been that forwards Chris Long, Courtney Baker-Richardson and recruit Shilow Tracey have shaken off previous injury niggles to stay fit, play 13 and 10 games in all competitions so far respectively – all three have delivered.
Plus, Joel Tabiner enjoyed a breakthrough season in Crewe’s first down from League One, and the academy product appears to be going up another level this term.
The Railwaymen have accrued 14 points from the last 18 available, and will feel they can do damage in their short trip north to the Peninsula Stadium, where Salford are underachieving, despite back-to-back wins over bottom half sides Newport and Sutton.
“Crewe are somehow 9/4 for the win, despite having played brilliantly this season, being third in the league and travelling to a side that recently lost five in a row – the traders have weighted the pricing for this one towards pre-season expectations, but a lot has changed since then – this isn’t the opening day!”
