EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back to preview his best bets for New Years’ Day’s action…
Middlesbrough to win – Evens
Middlesbrough v Coventry City
The irony for Middlesbrough, over the festive period, has been that they played far better at Rotherham, where they lost 1-0, than they did in their 2-1 victory at Huddersfield.
Head coach Michael Carrick, though, showed flexibility, making a crucial tweak with the scores level and the hosts in the ascendency, switching to a back-three by bringing on defender Matt Clarke, to match up their opponents’ shape.
Goalkeeper Tom Glover impressed, too, making fantastic stops, as well as setting up the winner, likewise Rav van den Berg, who made some crucial tackles and headers at key points.
Dan Barlaser kept things ticking over nicely in midfield alongside Jonny Howson, who showed admirable character to score the winner moments after missing a penalty.
The likes of Sam Greenwood, Sammy Silvera and Morgan Rogers might have had an off-night in West Yorkshire, but Boro have proven time and again this season that they do have the capacity to create chances, and they also have the options to mix things up.
Visitors Coventry have climbed the table with one defeat in 10, to Ipswich, but six of the other nine games have come against bottom half opposition.
“I expect a talented Middlesbrough side to find another attacking gear from the performance at Huddersfield, and if they play as they did at Rotherham but with a clinical edge, I feel they’ll get the result they need against even a solidified Coventry side.”
QPR to win – 13/10
Queens Park Rangers v Cardiff City
QPR rounded off 2023 with a gallant performance at Ipswich, in a goalless draw.
The returns from injury of Reggie Cannon, Steve Cook and Elijah Dixon-Bonner were crucial for the Rs, who looked much more secure down their right side of defence thanks to the impact of the first two, and looked after the ball better thanks to the latter.
The showing highlighted what the Hoops are capable of when they apply themselves, which in some ways adds to the frustration over the second half capitulation at Sheffield Wednesday, and the no-show at Millwall, both looking far more favourable fixtures on paper.
Nonetheless, there’s encouragement to come, too, from the contributions of Sam Field, arguably their best outfield player at Portman Road, and how well Sinclair Armstrong ran the channels.
If – and it’s a big if – QPR can channel those performance levels we saw in Suffolk into Monday’s hosting of Cardiff, they have a chance, especially seeing as the Bluebirds have recently dropped into the bottom half with five defeats in their last eight.
“QPR can take real heart from their performance at Ipswich, and they’ll be hoping to build on the point and clean sheet, establishing the kind of form we saw from them when Martí Cifuentes first came in.”
Double Chance: Draw/Peterborough – 8/11
Derby County v Peterborough United
Derby have catapulted themselves into the automatic promotion conversation with Portsmouth, Bolton and Peterborough, jumping from ninth to fourth through a return of 25 points from a possible 27.
The Rams overturned an early two-goal deficit at Oxford on Friday to win 3-2 at the Kassam Stadium, and overtake the U’s as the most prominent threat to the aforementioned trio’s hopes of a two from three scenario.
Paul Warne has done well to deliver this kind of form, but it doesn’t mean the visitors should be heavy favourites against the most entertaining attacking side in the league, who’s best player is a centre-back, Ronnie Edwards.
The 20-year-old starts Posh’s attacks from deep, while Archie Collins keeps a lid on things in midfield, so Hector Kyprianou can be more than ‘Hector the Protector’ this season.
Kwame Poku and Ephron Mason-Clark have really brought the magic for Darren Ferguson’s side, in attacking midfield roles either side of Harrison Burrows, who’s defying his doubters this season, and striker Ricky Jade-Jones, who runs the channels superbly to create space for others.
This is a fit, young, hungry Peterborough side, facing an experienced and largely aging Derby side, with the exceptions of Max Bird and Eiran Cashin, who may leave this month – so the visitors will feel they can use their legs to their advantage.
“Derby are in fantastic form, but I still think the name is a big part of why they’re such heavy favourites for this one, when you think Peterborough are themselves unbeaten in eight.”
Bristol Rovers draw no bet – 7/10
Wycombe Wanderers v Bristol Rovers
Wycombe against Bristol Rovers carries history, in a grudge catalysed by the events of 2013-14.
In the penultimate game of that season, the Gas won at Adams Park, which meant they only needed to avoid defeat against Mansfield on the final day to stay up at Wanderers’ expense, as a section of fans celebrated a crucial victory on the pitch.
Instead, they lost 1-0, and the Chairboys memorably took advantage at Torquay, meaning Rovers lost their 94-year Football League status, and were relegated having spent only 10 minutes in the bottom two all season – alas, the last 10 minutes.
Both clubs have since come a long way for this to be a clash between two League One clubs, especially with squads capable of a Play-Off push.
The Gas are delivering on that ambition under new boss Matt Taylor, who’s overseen 10 points from his first five games in charge, including wins over high-flyers Portsmouth and Bolton.
Bristol Rovers have a good core of players in goalkeeper Matthew Cox, defenders James Wilson and Connor Taylor, midfielder Grant Ward, wide man Luke Thomas, bright forward Aaron Collins and hold-up front-man Chris Martin.
As such, if Taylor can add the right 3-4 additions in January, they could make the second half of the season interesting.
For Wycombe, a 12-game winless run means it’s more about putting some distance between themselves and the drop zone, but they’ve not quite seen the progress they were quite for since Matt Bloomfield replaced Gareth Ainsworth in February.
“Bristol Rovers have shown early on in Matt Taylor’s reign that they can compete with even the best teams in the league, so I don’t see why they can’t take the points at a Wycombe side winless in 12.”
Double Chance: Draw/Mansfield – 8/13
Stockport County v Mansfield Town
After a 21-year record-equalling 12-game winning streak was ended by November’s 2-1 loss at Newport, Stockport will have been delighted to go unbeaten for the subsequent six games before January.
The Hatters have been hit by injuries in the full-back positions, midfield and attack, but the leaders have the spending power to address some of the issues in January.
As such, it’s been a case of ticking off the points they need to go into the transfer window without their position having been significantly weakened, and 10 points from six games certainly does the job from that perspective.
Nonetheless, County aren’t at their best without Will Collar, and the box-to-box energy he provides, and the midfielder could be a big miss for this key promotion clash with Mansfield.
The Stags are improved defensively this season, thanks to the signings of Aden Flint, Baily Cargill and Lewis Brunt.
The latter has been a revelation, but could’ve missed out due to the impact made by Flint and Cargill, yet the Leicester loanee grabbed his opportunity a second time when stepping into midfield for the suspended Louis Reed, and his contributions encouraged Nigel Clough to flip from 4-4-2 diamond to a narrow 4-2-3-1 when Reed returned.
The double-pivot were outstanding in a 2-0 victory over Grimsby, in which the Nottinghamshire outfit enjoyed a dominant second half, as Davis Keillor-Dunn continues to impress with his stealthy movement and ice-cool decision-making in the final third.
There’s a chance, though, that Rhys Oates comes into Clough’s XI for his direct running ability in transitions, seeing as the hosts will put their wing-backs, Kyle Knoyle and possibly Ethan Bristow on debut, very high up the pitch – Oates will feel he could cause problems in transitions.
“Mansfield are a very strong, well-rounded side and I think they can get a result at Stockport, who have had an injury-hit period and aren’t quite at full strength.”
Sutton to win – 11/8
Sutton United v Newport County
Matt Gray’s dismissal as Sutton boss shows just how ruthless and brutal an industry football management is.
The 42-year-old is a club legend, who led the club to the National League title against all the odds in 2020-21, then to an eighth-place finish in their first season up in League Two as they missed out on the Play-Offs on the final day, prior to 14th spot in an injury-hit 2022-23, with the lowest budget in the league.
Those achievements, though, weren’t enough to earn Gray more time in 2023-24, after 14 points from the first 21 games.
It felt like a harsh decision, and it would have been more fitting for the club to give him the opportunity to lead the rebuild, in the National League if it came to that, whilst learning, growing and evolving as a manager.
Ultimately, however, the threat of relegation, combined with the lack of promise found in most performances, led to the club making the call they did.
And, from a practical perspective, it’s had the desired impact with caretaker Jason Goodliffe overseeing three improved performances with a tough fixture list.
The U’s lost 2-0 to Mansfield just before Christmas, but had some spells within the game, they won 1-0 at South London rivals Wimbledon, and lost 1-0 at Gillingham having had Harry Smith sent off midway through the first half, with the 10-men holding out bravely for 50 minutes.
Goodliffe has switched from Gray’s 4-4-2 to a 4-4-1-1 which gives Sutton a little more control in midfield, thus allowing wide men Josh Coley and Omari Patrick some extra creative freedom.
Whether or not you agree with the principle of the decision, they’re a different proposition now to two weeks ago, and visitors Newport have lost nine of their 12 away league games.
“Sutton have been much improved since Jason Goodliffe stepped in as caretaker, and switching from 4-4-2 to 4-4-1-1 has done the trick in three improved performances in tough fixtures – I think they might beat travel sick Newport.”
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*Odds subject to change.
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