26 games down, 20 more to go. Our EFL pundit Gab Sutton reflects upon an enthralling 2023 in the Championship and gives his predictions for the coming year.
Surprise Packages
Ipswich Town
Ipswich fans were optimistic that they would adjust well to the Championship after promotion from League One last season, and most anticipated a top-half finish with an outside chance of a Play-Off push. What the Tractor Boys have achieved has been beyond all expectations.
The Suffolkians sit proudly in 2nd, with 55 points from their first 26 games – form that would see them amass a whopping 97 points over a full campaign.
It’s a squad that, largely, isn’t used to this level, and don’t have a history of competing at the top end of this division. Nevertheless, here they are rubbing shoulders with parachute payment beneficiaries in Leicester, Southampton and Leeds.
Town’s success is so much down to Kieran McKenna, and the quality of coaching he’s brought to Portman Road. He has elevated players to new heights.
Hull City
Hull went into 2023-24 with solid foundations, having lost just six of last season’s 28 league games under Liam Rosenior, keeping 12 clean sheets. They’ve taken this form into this campaign.
The Tigers finished 15th last year. That, however, was because, as well as having to make up for a bad start under Shota Arveladze, they played some of their games under Rosenior without a natural centre-forward.
They’ve since added two of those in Liam Delap, who has led the line superbly without quite finding a purple patch in front of goal, and Aaron Connolly, who has eight goals in 23 appearances (11 sub). The likes of Jaden Philogene, Scott Twine and Jason Lokilo, meanwhile, have brought a further smattering of quality. Philogene is the best player in the Championship when fit.
The East Riding of Yorkshire club boast a former title-winner in Jean Michaël Seri, who won top honours at this level with Fulham in 2021-22. He possess a dynamic, all-action partner for the Ivorian, in either Regan Slater or Tyler Morton.
Furthermore, Hull have in Rosenior a Head Coach who cares deeply about the club through his family routes, who’s shown to be extremely talented as well.
Cardiff City
Having hovered too close for comfort above the relegation zone in recent years, with 18th and 21st-placed finishes, amid off-field turbulence, Cardiff were anticipating another year in the bottom half. Erol Bulut has inspired optimism, however.
The Bluebirds have amassed 37 points from their first 27 games with a squad of frees and loans, with a tough spine in place.
The back-four of inverted right-back Perry Ng, battler Dimitrios Goutas, cultured Mark McGuinness and athlete Jamilu Collins have been solid and consistent for the capital club.
Elsewhere, Manolis Siopis brings tenacious protection in midfield alongside the reliable Joe Ralls, while Karlan Grant has been phenomenal up top in terms of his all-round game, despite only having four league goals.
Aaron Ramsey’s long-term injury restricted Cardiff’s creative potential, so Bulut has since been pragmatic and embraced a more conservative style to allow his side to grind out results.
If Josh Bowler, Yakou Meite and Callum Robinson can find form, a Play-Off push is possible, but midtable safety feels likelier.
Flops
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough’s resurgence under Michael Carrick, last season, took them from just outside the relegation zone in October to a Spring showdown for automatic promotion with Sheffield United. In the end, they fell just short.
As such, expectations were high for 2023-24, albeit tempered by the losses of key men Chuba Akpom, Ryan Giles and Cameron Archer, as the club sought to invest in permanent young assets.
What we’ve seen has been a team oozing with flair, talent, and guile. The likes of Morgan Rogers, Isaiah Jones, Sammy Silvera, Sam Greenwood and Emmanuel Latte Lath have all produced flashes, and Dan Barlaser has controlled things in midfield.
With that in mind, it feels harsh to call Boro a flop. They’re only four points off the Play-Offs and only a fine-tuning of details could be required to convert the outsiders into a top-six team.
Equally, the Teessiders have been at times loose in transition, partly due to Jonny Howson’s lack of mobility at the base of midfield and partly due to the energetic Riley McGree’s injury, slow to close people down, whilst missing the defensive presence of aerially dominant centre-back Darragh Lenihan, who’s out for the season.
Middlesbrough might have been able to get away with being weak defensively if they were super clinical, but they’re not: Emmanuel Latte Lath and Josh Coburn are good, and score a few, but ruthless goal machines, they ain’t.
The right recruitment and appropriate tweaks from Carrick could make the difference, but we’re saying they’ve got a bit too much work to do at either end.
Norwich City
A series of mistakes in recruitment, especially during their Premier League tenure, has left Norwich in a stable but compromised financial position as they prepare to rebuild.
The two main sources of hope for the Canaries have come. Firstly, Mark Attanasio, who increased his stake in the club to 40%, level with custodians Delia Smith and Michael Wynn-Jones, and may be able to provide fresh capital. Elsewhere, Ben Knapper, through former Arsenal loan manager who recently replaced Stuart Webber as Sporting Director.
Attanasio and Knapper can only change so much in the short-term, as the club looks set for a transitional period that may involve cashing in on their two key assets, Jonny Rowe and Gabriel Sara.
If the club can incur a combined £40M for the pair across the next two windows, the funds will help the Canaries invest in new talent, which is required to dilute a squad that’s now on the older side, and somewhat mentally drained by the last two-and-a-half years.
Head Coach David Wagner hasn’t done enough to remedy the problems, either, and has overseen 22 defeats in 51 games in charge.
Stoke City
Stoke haven’t seen the progress they wanted in 2023-24, having spent £16.34M on transfer fees alone to sign 19 new players in a summer overhaul – 14 on permanent deals.
Boss Alex Neil was sacked in December, with the team languishing in 20th, two points above the relegation zone.
There’s since been progress for the Potters, who are unbeaten in four under new boss Steven Schumacher, poached from Plymouth Argyle, and six overall, extending their gap to the drop zone to seven points.
A late Play-Off charge looks unlikely, but the 3-1 victory at Birmingham showed that Schumacher was able to implement some of the tactical ideas we saw from him at Home Park very quickly. A comfortable conclusion to the season thus looks likely, before the Staffordshire club condense the squad in the summer with a view to launching a challenge in 2024-25.
Predictions for 2024
Promotions
Leicester City
Leicester City have a clear playing identity, a strong Head Coach in Enzo Maresca, a squad jam-packed with quality, and the resources to strengthen in January, perhaps with half an eye on the likelihood of a return to the Premier League.
The Foxes have had some patches this season, around both August and mid-to-late October to November, in which performances weren’t quite at the level they’re capable of.
However, thanks to their depth, and individual quality, City, at what by their standards might be a 4-5/10 are still better than most teams performing at a 7-8/10.
Goalkeeper Mads Hermansen’s distribution has been crucial to the style. Ricardo Pereira’s grasp of the inverted full-back role has made the system work, while Jannik Vestergaard’s ball-progression from the back has been outstanding.
Elsewhere, Harry Winks has been an assured presence at the base of midfield, Abdul Fatawu and Stephy Mavididi provide genuine threats with their one-v-one abilities out wide, and box-to-box man Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall seems to take responsibility for promotion all on his own broad shoulders, chipping in with nine goals and eight assists.
Around that reliable core, Maresca has been happy to rotate, which has been important with such a big squad, and solutions to absentees have easily been found.
If Premier League winner Jamie Vardy, Nigeria international Kelechi Iheanacho and former Austrian Bundesliga top goalscorer Patson Daka are all unavailable, as we saw in the 4-0 win over Plymouth Argyle, they have a £6M striker ready to come in and score a brace.
Never mind promotion – Leicester need ‘only’ another 42 points from their remaining 20 games to beat Reading’s 106-point Championship record from 2005-06.
Ipswich Town
It’ll be tough to outperform the likes of Leeds and Southampton, both of whom possess higher-pedigree squads on paper with more individual quality. They also have more spending power in January.
Moreover, this month will be huge for the Tractor Boys. They have recently struggled without the likes of left-back Leif Davis and centre-forward George Hirst, finding themselves short in terms of alternative solutions, and it’s the same when captain Sam Morsy is suspended – the Egypt international is away at the African Cup of Nations this January.
Much-needed midfield cover has been added in the form of Lewis Travis, on loan from Blackburn, and with the right 2-3 further additions, Ipswich have a great chance of taking this golden opportunity to complete historic back-to-back promotions.
Leeds United
Leeds have an attacking quartet of Dan James, Joel Piroe, Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter who have been devastating this season, especially in transitions.
The speed of James, the poaching of Piroe, the ball-carrying of Summerville, and Rutter’s intelligence bringing it all together has made the Whites one of the most potent counter-attacking sides in the Championship.
Sometimes, breaking down deep defensive blocks has been a problem for Daniel Farke’s side, who arguably miss creativity from deep, or even in the number 10 position, where Piroe tends to be more goal-oriented. January reinforcements would help.
However, the above is mitigated somewhat by progressive centre-backs in Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk, a dynamic midfield all-rounder in Ethan Ampadou, and a sparkling young talent in Archie Gray operating at right-back.
Southampton are a fantastic side, unbeaten in 18. West Brom are superbly coached by Carlos Corberán, and Hull have positive vibes too – but we think Leeds go up in the end, even if it has to be via the Play-Offs.
Relegation
Queens Park Rangers
QPR are the easiest pick for relegation, despite being four points from safety rather than Rotherham’s seven.
Martí Cifuentes inspired some initial optimism at Loftus Road, overseeing 10 points from his first six games in a series of improved performances, but the players have since reverted to type with two points from six as the mentality of the group is in question, while there’s very little footballing acumen upstairs.
Rotherham United
Rotherham have given themselves some hope with improved performances under Leam Richardson. If they cash in on star goalkeeper Viktor Johansson, they’ll have the resource to enhance the squad on top of what’s already a competitive best XI.
The Millers have left themselves a lot of work to do, however. 32 points from 20 games looks a big ask for Richardson’s side. If they go down, however, they’ll go down fighting.
Huddersfield Town
Sheffield Wednesday might stay up, having clawed back a nine-point deficit to three thanks to an extraordinary turnaround in performances under an excellent coach in Danny Röhl.
By comparison, there’s less confidence to be had in Huddersfield boss Darren Moore who, previously in his career, has had sides carried at times by individual quality as opposed to them being superbly coached.
This time around, Moore can’t rely on the same advantages he had at West Brom and Sheffield Wednesday and, to an extent, Doncaster based on use of the loan market.
The Terriers could be the third team to drop with QPR and Rotherham, even with the encouraging additions of midfielder Alex Matos, on loan from Chelsea, and striker Bojan Radulović from HJK Helsinki.
The problem Town face is that it’s difficult to identify other potential plummeters. Birmingham should arrest their slump under new management, Plymouth Argyle are a superbly well run club who will recruit players and a Head Coach smartly, and their outgoing boss, Steven Schumacher, is already getting his ideas across at six unbeaten Stoke.
There’s pessimism in Lancashire, where Blackburn and Preston North End could drop into the dogfight based on form and low morale, but have the relative comfort of 10 and 13-point cushions respectively.
Dark Horses
Watford
Early October’s 2-0 loss at Sunderland left Watford languishing in 21st, 10 games in. Just one point above the drop zone – and the club’s history under the Pozzo family suggested only one outcome.
Instead, the Hornets kept faith with Valérien Ismaël. One day before the trip to Wearside they released a self-parodic club statement regarding the Head Coach. Initially appearing on X as though they had sacked him, but turned out to be an extended contract.
The decision suggests, at least, some self-awareness from the hierarchy at how they come across to the football public, and the humility to have a sense of humour about it whilst showing faith in the man in charge.
Ismaël has rewarded that faith with three defeats in 16 league games, a run that’s seen the Hertfordshire club soar to 10th, four points off the Play-Offs.
Whereas last season there was a pressure to win promotion, which became almost stifling, this season the club appears to be employing a big-picture approach which may be freeing the players up more.
The left-sided trio of Jamal Lewis, Ismaël Koné and Ken Sema has been golden for the boys, Wesley Hoedt brings Dutch courage on the ball, while Jake Livermore and Edo Kayembe defy doubters in midfield.
Add a clinical centre-forward who can press, and maybe Watford can convert a rebuilding season into one of triumph.
*Odds subject to change
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