Get the latest County Hurdle tips from BetVictor where we predict the winners with expert analysis. We provide concise insights into odds movements, key contenders, and track conditions affecting the County Hurdle race in the preview.
The County Hurdle is:
- Run on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival
- A Handicap hurdle race
- Covers a distance of 2 miles and 179 yards over the New Course
- Open to horses aged 5 years and up
Key Takeaways
- The County Hurdle is a competitive and unpredictable betting market, attracting interest due to its history of surprise outcomes.
- Odds can significantly change due to final declarations, trainer and jockey track records, and on-the-day race conditions such as the going on the track.
- Strategic betting considerations include comparing odds movement, understanding handicapping, and properly timing bets to optimise potential returns. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, visit our Safer Gambling Portal for more information on setting up deposit limits, product restrictions, timeouts and more.
2024 County Hurdle Odds
Let’s examine the top contenders this year along with our Cheltenham Festival odds.
The Favourites
Here are the top 3 frontrunners:
- King of Kingsfield – priced at 6/1* and trained by Gordon Elliott, this is the current favourite heading the market and won the Miaden Hurdle at Leopardstown on boxing day.
- Iberico Lord – priced at 7/1* and trained by Nicky Henderson, this 6 year old recently won the GBB Race Premier Handicap Hurdle at Newbury 10 February and won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham November Meeting.
- Absurde – priced at 8/1* and trained by Willie Mullins. This 6 year old finds itself as current third favourite to win but hasn’t been on great form recently with constant switches in jockeys.
Value Picks and Outsiders
Although the leading contenders command attention in the odds, the prospect of unexpected outcomes keeps the County Hurdle betting scene captivating. The key is to identify horses that can outperform their rivals.
Some potential dark horses to watch include:
- L’Eau Du Sud – priced at 10/1* (shifted from 14/1) and trained by Dan Skelton. This 9 year old lost to Iberico Lord, placing 2nd at the Newbury Premier Handicap Hurdle 10 February, showing some potential that he can keep up with the big boys.
- Luccia – priced at 10/1* and trained by Nicky Henderson. This 6 year old won the handicap hurdle at Ascot racecourse 23 December 2023.
These horses, though not leading the pack, can add an interesting twist to the race.
Impact of Final Declarations on Odds
Final declarations can dramatically alter the odds, particularly in a race such as the County Hurdle, some horses are double entered at the moment, for example, it’s not yet been confirmed what race Iberico Lord is competing in.
But luckily, we offer ‘No Runner No Bet’ on every Cheltenham Festival race at BetVictor, allowing you to to place bets without the risk of losing your stake if the horse doesn’t run.
We show you any recent fluctuations in the odds so you can stay up to date with market movers and see how the betting odds shift before placing your bet.
Key Trends for the County Hurdle
When it comes to betting on the County Hurdle, understanding key trends can help you in placing an informed bet:
- Horses aged five to six years have won approximately half of the County Hurdles since 1997.
- Horses that have placed in the top three in their prep run are likely to have shorter odds.
- Over the past 20 renewals, only 3 favourites have won the race, the most recent being State Man in 2022.
Additionally, Irish runners have dominated this race with a total of 11 winners, 24 placings and 182 runners.
Leading Trainers
- Willie Mullins – 6 wins
- Paul Nicholls – 4 wins
- Dan Skelton – 4 wins
Trainer Dan Skelton’s Influence on the Market
Dan Skelton, brother of jockey Harry Skelton, is one figure who has seen a lot of success in the County Hurdle market over the past 10 years. With four victories in the last eight runnings of the County Hurdle, Skelton’s stables have demonstrated consistent success.
The Role of Leading Jockeys
Similar to trainers, performances by leading jockeys also have a substantial impact on the odds. Jockeys like Paul Townend, with a history of success in the County Hurdle, can influence the odds due to their experience and proven ability. Townend, with three County Hurdle victories in the last eight years, continues to lead the way.
Previous County Hurdle Winners
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 4:06.12 | Faivoir (FR) 8yo 10-7 33/1 | Bridget Andrews Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2022 4:01.25 | State Man (FR) 5yo 11-1 11/4F | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2021 4:02.27 | Belfast Banter (IRE) 6yo 10-0 33/1 | Kevin Sexton Peter Fahey (IRE) |
| 2020 4:02.42 | Saint Roi (FR) 5yo 10-13 11/2F | Barry Geraghty W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2019 4:04.85 | Chtibello (FR) 8yo 11-5 12/1 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2018 4:18.00 | Mohaayed (GB) 6yo 10-8 33/1 | Bridget Andrews (3lbs) Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2017 4:00.00 | Arctic Fire (GER) 8yo 11-12 20/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2016 3:55.50 | Superb Story (IRE) 5yo 10-12 8/1 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2015 4:05.70 | Wicklow Brave (GB) 6yo 11-4 25/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2014 3:58.49 | Lac Fontana (FR) 5yo 10-11 11/1 | Daryl Jacob Paul Nicholls (GB) |
Should I look at a horse’s form ahead of the County Hurdle?
Past performances in significant races like the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham often shape the County Hurdle market, typically catapulting successful horses to favourite status (like Iberico Lord in this year’s edition). A top three finish at the festival is typically seen among County Hurdle winners, thus horses with this form are taken seriously in the betting market. Moreover, key trial races like the Betfair Exchange Trophy Hurdle and the Grade 3 Imperial Cup at Sandown have historically affected the odds as they serve as a prep race for the runners.
Festival Winners After the Festival
Winning at the Cheltenham Festival shows that these runners have the mettle to take on other races. If you wagered on the winner next time out over the last 20 renewals, you would’ve backed 6 winners.
Free Bets and Promotions
At BetVictor, we’re offering Non Runner No Bet for all 28 races in our Cheltenham Festival Ante Post markets, and we’re also offering various Free Bet promotions for new customers to sign up and opt into.
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Going and Ground Updates
The odds for the County Hurdle can be notably affected by race day conditions like the weather and the condition of the ground. Variable weather conditions, especially rain or snow, can change the track surface to wet or muddy, leading to last-minute changes in the betting odds for the contenders.
How these conditions can affect a horse’s performance is something every punter should consider when placing their bets.
- Rain and humidity can at worst waterlog the track and see the race being cancelled. If the going is categorised as “heavy” or “yielding” you may want to check a horse’s recent performance to see if they have experience under these conditions.
Real-time information on track conditions can significantly alter betting odds as bettors adjust their strategies based on the advantages or disadvantages for specific horses.
Longshots That Defied the Odds
Every now and then, longshots in the County Hurdle on Gold Cup Day have upset the odds, injecting a dose of surprise and thrill into the race. The biggest-priced winner in the last 20 renewals was Silver Jaro in 2008, who secured a win with odds of 50/1, earning a significant amount of prize money.
Another notable longshot was Belfast Banter, who surprised many by winning the County Hurdle with an SP of 33/1. And the most recent winner, Faivoir, was also priced at 33/1. Faivoir certainly did surprise spectators as he hadn’t won a race during that season in the lead up to Cheltenham and was definitely under the radar for most bettors. But when we look even further, it seems he was a one hit wonder as he hasn’t won any more races since.
Arctic Fire, who clinched victory in 2017 with odds of 20/1, exemplifies another high-odds winner at the festival who came out of nowhere and who succeeded in the County Hurdle. The horse had a 418 day break before coming into the Cheltenham Festival without any trials or races beforehand.
This race is an unpredictable one, as we mentioned, only 4 favourites have won the last 20 races.
Strategies for Betting on the County Hurdle
Adopting a strategic approach to betting on the County Hurdle can greatly improve your overall betting experience and ensure you’re betting sensibly. Here are some tips to consider:
- Compare a horse’s odds to its perceived actual chance of winning
- Be cautious of horses who’s odds have drifted dramatically
- Pay attention to training reports and signs of a horse’s good conditioning
By following these strategies, you can increase your chances of making successful bets on the County Hurdle.
*All odd are correct at time of writing and are subject to change.
Frequently Asked Questions
The leading contenders for the upcoming County Hurdle are King of Kingsfield, Iberico Lord and Absurde, all of whom have shown notable performances in recent hurdle events. Keep an eye on these horses as the event approaches.
Final declarations can have a significant impact on the County Hurdle odds, as the declarations of multiple runners from powerful stables can sway punters to back those horses, thus affecting the odds. This is visually represented by color-coded odds boxes showing price drift (red) or contracting odds (blue).
The Cheltenham Festival form significantly impacts the odds for the County Hurdle, with top three finishers at the festival being taken seriously in the betting market. Key trial races like the Betfair Hurdle and the Grade 3 Imperial Cup at Sandown also historically affect the odds.
