Finally, Cheltenham races has arrived, the most anticipated week in racing.
Each day in this blog I will look to try and find you winners, value bets and angles into the race on markets BetVictor are offering. It goes without saying but I will reiterate it, just because it is Cheltenham it is not an excuse to bet with no discipline or above your means. Responsible gambling is as important this week as it is for the other 51 weeks of the year. Right on with the action…
1.20 Cheltenham 2m½f(2m87y) (Old) Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
It was great to see this race titled in memory of the late Michael O’Sullivan, this year’s renewal has a standout contender in Kopek Des Bordes who sets a high standard based on his Dublin Racing Festival win. Unbeaten in three starts I wonder how the buzz of Cheltenham will go down with a talented but slightly quirky horse judged by his parade ring behaviour at Leopardstown. I was on the fence initially but on reflection I think he will drift and still win. The manor of that Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle win has me sold, that race is often a great pointer to a horse that will run well here.
I think it is a good renewal with Romeo Coolio heading the challengers for Gordon Elliott, beaten just once this season over hurdles he will enjoy the Spring ground, Salvatour Mundi has failed to remain popular with punters since his effort in the Moscow Flyer. Workahead has seen his form stack up nicely in recent times and let us not forgot his trainer Henry De Bromhead took this race 12 month ago turning over a short price favourite. Irancy of those away from the favourite is one of the most interesting double digits priced runners and will be getting each way play from me. Not seen since November where he won on good ground at Punchestown, the form of that race was boosted by Will The Wise who could claim the Pertemps later on in the week. He seems to have had the odd issue that has kept him from the track, twice raced in France I revisited his stable debut where he was third behind Firefox and a certain Ballyburn. He could just fill the frame and chase home Kopek Des Bordes
1.5 point win Kopek Des Bordes
0.5 ew Irancy
2.00 Cheltenham 2m(1m7f199y) (Old) My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
However we dress this up it is a real shame we have such a small field, hopefully we still get a good race, Majororugh should win his two previous runs over fences saw a good debut at Fairyhouse with just the odd error before an interesting run in the Irish Arkle where he at times had punters worried before really showing his ability galloping away from the rest of the field. As long as his jumping holds up he should get the better of the rest and will be chased home by the Skelton’s L’Eau du Sud who is a course and distance winner.
1 point win Majborough
3m1f (Old) Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
History tells us we need a 140+ horse that has Cheltenham experience, Broadway Boy has been a fantastic servant for connections and feels like a horse who has been around forever. He has had plenty of experience on the Old Course including a win and displayed he can handle big field handicaps with a fine run at Newbury in the Coral Trophy in November. I think he can go really well for The Twison-Davies gang who are no strangers to big race success at the Festival.
1 point each way Broadway Boy
3.20 2m4f Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1)The Mares Hurdle
It was a real shame that Lossiemouth has ended up here rather than adding to the spice of a Champion Hurdle, in truth she should be a cut above these and just give Willie Mullins yet another renewal of this race he has farmed. Her defeat of Teaupoo looks great form, that was her seasonal return and what followed was a puzzling effort behind a returning Constitution Hill, then a fall at the Dublin Racing Festival when facing stablemate Stateman. Backing horses off a fall is always a bit of a an ask but in this company she should be head and shoulders above the rest and claim another mares hurdle for Willie Mullins.
1 point win Lossiemouth
2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Sadly, just the seven but what a seven we have here, we can discount Winter Fog straight away whilst King Of Kingsfield has a pace making role which proved so useful to Brighterdaysahead last time out. She is the rising star aiming to take the crown from reigning Champion State Man and returning hero Constitution Hill. The weight of public support will be with the former champion Constitution Hill to return to the top of the two-mile hurdling tree, I think it will make Brighterdaysahead a value bet to upset the odds. Gordon Elliott’s Mare gets 7lb from the field, has the help of a stablemate to set the fractions. Kept fresh for the race I think she has been given the very best chance of upsetting the odds on favourite.
1 point win Brighterdaysahead
4.40 Cheltenham 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo)
Where to begin with this typical tricky renewal of the Fred Winter, owner JP McManus has a strong hand with several of the main contenders in his silks. I don’t feel convinced that Stencil is well handicapped off a mark of 135 and I would be happy to take him on. The one I want to play each way at a massive price is Liam Swagger trained by James Owen. It feels like these types of nice ex flat horses have excelled in his hands. Two wins over hurdles looked impressive before the odds on defeat at Newbury halted progress. I do think the effort was forgivable, he had to give 10 pounds to the entire field and the ground was pretty soft that day having been on course. An odds-on win on the All-weather last month looks a nice tee up for coming here. At 25/1 with five places on offer is a good each way play in an open race.
1 point each way Liam Swagger
5.20 Cheltenham 3m6f (3m5f201y) (Old) Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145)
It was interesting to see how the changes impacted this race, and the better field size indicates a positive from that perspective. It is a shame to see how cast aside the amateur riders have been with the rule change which allows professionals to ride in this contest. The right horses as ever have ended up towards the front of the betting and of those Transmission gets the nod, there is so much to like about his chances back on better ground and with Patrick Mullins who won on him at the November meeting booked to ride. Another at a huge price I am prepared to chance each way is Klarc Kent, whilst he hasn’t been too superhuman in recent efforts he has good bits and pieces of form to suggest he could outrun his price. Now down to a mark of 123 he was placed in the Scottish National last Spring off higher and I think being unexposed on better ground could see him improve significantly and his page gives you some hope his breeding will assist with this.
1 point Tramsmion Win
0.5 points each way Klarc Kent
