EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for Boxing Day’s action…
Blackburn to win – 21/20
Huddersfield Town v Blackburn Rovers
Blackburn were unlucky to lose 2-1 to Watford on Saturday.
Rovers held their lead until the closing stages, as Hayden Carter put in an intelligent showing at right-back and Adam Wharton looked a real threat from midfield, grabbing an early goal and coming close to bagging a second.
Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side are well-coached with good patterns of play and rotations of movement, but while they have numerous options up top, they don’t have the one, super clinical goalscorer like they’ve had in recent years with Adam Armstrong and Ben Brereton Diaz.
Sometimes that can make them less predictable than they’ve been previously, but when they’ve needed a cutting edge they’ve often been found wanting, which is why they’ve struggled to establish the consistency required to make the Play-Offs.
Nonetheless, they are still a notch above the weaker teams in the Championship, and Huddersfield are one of those.
After a 2-0 loss at Norwich last time out, it’s just two wins in 16 for the Terriers under Darren Moore – or two in 17 overall.
Moore wasn’t helped by Danny Ward’s late drop-out at Carrow Road, which meant Sorba Thomas started as a strike-partner to Delano Burgzorg, which isn’t his most natural role – but some have argued 3-4-3 with Thomas and Josh Koroma wide of Burgzorg would’ve suited the personnel better, possibly dropping Jonathan Hogg.
It’s a poor squad that doesn’t appear to be being managed particularly well either…
“Blackburn suffered a setback before Christmas, losing to Watford having led late on, but their performance against the Hornets – especially first half – suggests they’re a notch above the weaker sides in the league, of which Huddersfield are unquestionably one.”
Watford to win – 9/10
Watford v Bristol City
Watford have enjoyed a resurgence under Valérien Ismaël.
A run of two defeats in 13, including five wins in their last eight, have seen them become one of the Championship’s form sides, lifting the Hornets within two points off the Play-Off spots.
Saturday’s 2-1 victory at Blackburn was a little fortuitous, because they weren’t at their normal levels in the first half, but Ismaël’s substitutions made all the difference.
Right-back Ryan Andrews, and his corresponding wide forward, Yáser Asprilla, gave the visitors far more of a threat down that flank – they combined well as the latter’s pace exposed tiring defenders.
It was another two substitutes who got the crucial goals, though, as Mileta Rajović and Rhys Healey struck late to seal the points.
Ironically, Watford went into last season with big expectations and fell well short of them in 11th, whereas this season the expectations were more modest, as most fans accepted it was a transitional campaign, and the team looks a lot stronger.
Wesley Hoedt is having a fine season in central defence, while Jamal Lewis is forging an excellent left-sided relationship with Ken Sema, and Jake Livermore, Edo Kayembe and Ismaël Koné are all defying doubters in midfield.
Livermore is the ball-winner, Kayembe is the physical box-to-box type who poses a goalscoring threat, while Kone brings creativity and dynamism.
“Watford have made significant strides over the last couple of months, and have flown into the Play-Off reckoning from midtable obscurity – I don’t see any reason why their form wouldn’t continue against a middling Bristol City side.”
Cheltenham to win – 11/10
Cheltenham Town v Shrewsbury Town
If Darrell Clarke keeps Cheltenham up, he should win Manager of the Year in League One.
What he inherited was a team that had been carried by the individual quality of Alfie May in 2022-23, and after their star man’s exit to Charlton in the summer, players were bereft of confidence – they must have felt as though they couldn’t score without him.
Not a single Robins player scored a goal in their first 13 games in all competitions, and their only goal was a James Gibbons o.g. in September’s 4-1 EFL Trophy loss at Bristol Rovers.
Darrell Clarke was in charge for the last of those 13, a 2-0 loss to Fleetwood, which left them seven points off safety, but Rob Street’s opener the following Saturday, in a 1-1 draw with Derby, turned a new leaf for the Cotswoldians.
Clarke’s different leadership style to predecessor Wade Elliott has brought a fresh energy to Cheltenham: he’s instinctive, demanding and ruthless.
The 46-year-old told the players who aren’t in his plans of their position very early on, which was risky given that he may have had to rely on some of them between then and January, and at a club with tight budgetary constraints that has no guarantee of offloading the permanently contracted ones.
His approach has shaken everything up, though, and you can see the impact even in defeats.
In October’s 3-2 loss at Blackpool, for instance, Clarke made as many as four substitutions at half-time and it led to a much improved second period.
In mid-December’s 2-1 defeat to Leyton Orient, Town played with 10 men for 72 minutes and were still the better team, playing on the front-foot even when they led in the second half, only dropping in when they had to right at the end, suffering the late sucker-punches.
Cheltenham operate with a high line: again, risky because veteran centre-back Curtis Davies lacks pace, but they back themselves to put enough pressure on the ball through Will Goodwin and George Lloyd’s exemplary work ethic, and tenacity of Liam Sercombe, Tom Pett and co. in midfield, that they stop their opponents at source.
“Cheltenham are much better than the table would suggest based on their form since Darrell Clarke took charge, and Shrewsbury are quite a bit worse – they’ve flattered to deceive this season and League One’s third-lowest goalscorers are lucky to have 27 points on the board.”
Wycombe to win – 6/4
Exeter City v Wycombe Wanderers
Wycombe are without a victory since early October’s 4-1 thumping of Fleetwood on the Fylde coast, with their best performance of Matt Bloomfield’s tenure followed, surprisingly, by a 10-game barren run.
If we break the unwanted streak down, though, six of the games came against sides seventh or above, and from another three – Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Port Vale at home – they were the better team in each of those games and with more ruthless finishing, would have got nine points instead of two.
As such, the Chairboys are not a million miles away, and we can see they’re a clear notch above some of the weaker sides in this league, whilst not being ready to compete with the best just yet, which is understandable in context of a season of stylistic transition.
The injuries haven’t helped Wyc, either, as West Ham loanee Freddie Potts remains a big miss in midfield, but Matt Bloomfield’s switch from 3-4-1-2 to 4-2-3-1 has made a difference, as the team looks more comfortable with the back-four.
Chris Forino and Joe Low complement one another nicely in defence, Luke Leahy and Josh Scowen giv Bloomfield’s side plenty of tenacity in midfield, and Kieran Sadlier looked bright and inventive from the left in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Vale.
If Wycombe can replicate those performance levels at Exeter, they’ve got a chance, as the Grecians are 13 without a win in a run of form that’s seen them slump from 1st in September to 20th at Christmas.
“Exeter are desperate to get to January, when they are expected to have a strong recruitment drive to make up for the loss of key players in the summer, and support Gary Caldwell to arrest the slump – but right now Wycombe look closer to arresting their own winless run.”
Harrogate draw no bet – 23/20
Harrogate Town v Accrington Stanley
Harrogate have had to channel their more destructive side to record back-to-back wins.
Simon Weaver’s side have foiled the plans of idealistic, possession-oriented tacticians in Luke Williams and David Artell at Notts County, creating chances by stealing the ball in the opposing half and being potent in transitions.
Abraham Odoh brings the pace to make it work, stepping up recently in the absence of Sam Folarin, but Matty Daly’s incisive creativity, Jack Muldoon’s canny movement and George Thomson’s technical wizardry all help.
Plus, right-back Kayne Ramsay supports the attack very well – a couple of years ago, he looked like an Olympic sprinter on a football pitch, but now he’s refined his game a lot more and is one of the best full-backs in League Two.
The Sulphurites have enjoyed borderline Play-Off form since mid-October, with 14 points from nine games, so they can go into 2024 with some optimism.
Accrington Stanley beat Walsall 2-1 on Saturday to remain on the coat-tails of the Play-Off scramble, but they’re plagued by injuries and have a very youthful bench.
“Harrogate Town have elevated themselves from a relegation dogfight into midtable with 14 points from their last nine games, with borderline Play-Off form for Simon Weaver’s side. I reckon they might secure a third straight victory against injury-hit Accrington Stanley.”
Tranmere draw no bet – 11/10
Salford City v Tranmere Rovers
Having finished October languishing in the bottom two, Tranmere have made their 2024 look a lot brighter in prospect thanks to a run of one defeat in seven league games, which has seen them climb to 19th.
That one loss came at Walsall, where only a man-of-the-match performance from opposing goalkeeper Jackson Smith stopped them from getting on the scoresheet, having been clearly the better team.
They responded with Saturday’s 2-1 victory over Swindon, and while they were a tad shaky defensively, they were highly creative, and would have scored more than two if they had an out-and-out centre-forward like the injured Luke Norris available.
Rovers have one of the best sets of wide options in the league in Rob Apter, Kieron Morris, Josh Hawkes and Harvey Saunders.
The agile Apter has been a delight to watch this season, in sparkling form on loan from Blackpool, Morris is selfless in both his work ethic and creative play, so Hawkes – someone who’d get into any other team in the league that operates with natural wide men – has actually been on the bench lately, with the energetic Saunders deputizing for Norris up top.
With Brad Walker and Regan Hendry keeping a lid on things in midfield, the winger-wowing Wirralians have a template that should see them continue to climb the table, and they’ll feel they can take all three points at Salford.
There’s a malaise around the Peninsula Stadium right now, as a seven-game winless run in the league has seen Neil Wood’s side drop to 21st, prompting relegation fears.
“Tranmere are climbing the table with one defeat in seven, whereas Salford are winless in seven – and I think the momentum of these two sides may continue on Boxing Day.”
*Odds subject to change
