Andy Schooler looks at the contenders for the women’s singles title at the Australian Open odds and highlights the ‘best of the rest’ ahead of Sunday’s start.
Iga Swiatek – 9/4
World ranking (as of Jan 8): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): 4R-SF-4R-4R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
2024 record (upto & inc Jan 7): 5-0
There’s little doubt that when Swiatek is at the top of her game, she’s the best player in the world – and the bad news for her Melbourne rivals is that she’s been in fine fettle of late. She ended 2023 with some dominant displays at the WTA Finals and last week picked up where she left off, going 5-0 in singles at the United Cup team event, losing only one set and winning all the others 6-3 or better. The one issue is she’s not got a great record at this tournament – only once past the last 16 and yet to reach the final. Still, as the odds suggest, Swiatek looks the one to beat.
Aryna Sabalenka – 9/2
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: W-4R-4R-1R-3R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 Australian Open
2024 record: 4-1
The big-hitting Sabalenka claimed her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne 12 months ago but she’s since had some struggles trying to repeat that success, notably losing a number of close matches. She arguably should have won semi-finals at both the French Open and Wimbledon and then lost from a set up in the US Open final. Started 2024 well, easing through to the Brisbane final but then suffered a heavy loss to Elena Rybakina, winning only three games. So, while there is plenty to like about her chances, there are also some concerns for her potential backers.
Elena Rybakina – 11/2
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: RU-2R-2R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2022 Wimbledon
2024 record: 5-0
The former Wimbledon champion made the final here 12 months ago and, after a flying start to 2024, will fancy her chances of going one better this time around. The Kazakh won the season-opening Brisbane International without dropping a set and, notably, she crushed Aryna Sabalenka – the player who beat her here last year – in the final. Rybakina was only taken to 6-4 once in the entire week. Some will be put off by the fact she’s also playing in Adelaide before heading to the first Grand Slam tournament of the season but Rybakina insists she needs more practice having seen her off-season disrupted by illness. Looks a real contender.
Coco Gauff – 7/1
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 4R-1R-2R-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 US Open
2024 record: 5-0
Another player who has made a strong start to the new season, winning the title in Auckland where the only set she lost came in her final victory over Elina Svitolina. This year, Gauff arrives in Melbourne as a Grand Slam champion, having won the US Open in September. Whether that status works in the teenager’s favour or not, remains to be seen. What isn’t in doubt is the improvement she’s had since bringing Brad Gilbert into her coaching set-up, particularly on the forehand side. He praised her “problem-solving” ability last week and Gauff’s tactical nous should ensure she’s a contender.
Naomi Osaka – 14/1
World ranking: 833
Tournament history: 3R-W-3R-W-4R-2R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
2024 record: 1-1
Twice the champion in Melbourne and a four-time hardcourt Grand Slam winner, Osaka is on the comeback trail after becoming a mother last summer. Her first tournament back brought a second-round defeat to Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane and surely it’s too early to be expecting her to challenge at the highest level. A withdrawal from an exhibition match in the days leading up to the tournament hardly inspires confidence either. In short, odds of 14/1 look too skinny.
Best of the rest
Elina Svitolina has impressed since returning to the court last spring following the birth of her daughter.
She made deep runs at the French Open and Wimbledon (beating world no 1 Iga Swiatek at the latter) and was a tad unfortunate to run into third seed Jessica Pegula in the third round of the US Open, losing in three sets.
That was her final tournament of 2023 but she’s already begun 2024 in flying fashion, claiming some good scalps en route to the final in Auckland, where she lost to Coco Gauff.
She’s gone 5-4 against the top 20 since her comeback, winning a set in all bar one of those matches, so won’t be afraid of the top players.
Given she won’t be seeded in the top 16, Svitolina will need a bit of luck in Thursday’s draw but there looks juice in her price of 22/1.
Pegula will also have her backers, although others will be put off by her string of quarter-final defeats.
The American has lost in the last eight of five of the last eight Grand Slams and is yet to go beyond that stage at the majors.
Still, if the world no 3 keeps knocking on the door, surely she’ll break it down at some point.
She’s won seven of her last eight matches against top-10 opponents (all on hardcourts) with all of her main Melbourne title rivals beaten.
Definitely has potential at 16/1.
Finally, let’s give Victoria Azarenka a mention.
The Belarusian is a two-time champion of this tournament, albeit more than 10 years ago, but she made an impressive run to the semis last season and should not be ruled out.
She loves playing in Australia, where she’s won five career titles, and wasn’t too far from another last week in Brisbane where she made the last four.
A renowned fighter, Azarenka had a winning record against the top 20 in 2023 so is another player who won’t be fazed if she gets a tricky draw.
Best Bets:
Elena Rybakina – 11/2
Elina Svitolina e/w – 22/1
*Odds subject to change
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