With the Australian Open getting under way on Sunday, Andy Schooler assesses the leading contenders and picks out some dark horses from further down the Australian Open betting market.
Novak Djokovic – 1/1
World ranking (as of Jan 8): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): W-W-W-W-4R-2R-W-W-QF-W-W-W-QF-QF-W-4R-1R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
2024 record (upto & inc Jan 7): 2-1
With 10 Australian Open titles on his CV, it’s hard to bet against Novak Djokovic in Melbourne. He’s won his last 28 matches at the venue and such a record means many opponents are beaten before they even step onto court. The worry for those thinking odds-against about the Serb looks a steal is that he clearly had some sort of wrist injury at last week’s United Cup event, one which saw him suffered a shock loss to Alex de Minaur. Still, Djokovic has twice won here when apparently struggling with injury in the past and is certainly the one they all have to beat.
Carlos Alcaraz – 7/2
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 Wimbledon & 2022 US Open
2024 record: 0-0
Alcaraz truly sparkled at times last season, perhaps most notably when beating Djokovic in the Wimbledon final, but he also had some troughs – he arrives Down Under having lost six of his last 13 matches. A new season brings the potential for a reset but Alcaraz will need to hit the ground running in Melbourne having opted against appearing in any of the warm-up events. His experience of Australian conditions therefore remains limited to just eight matches, three of which have been lost, with Alcaraz yet to reach the second week of this tournament. Not much value in the price.
Jannik Sinner – 13/2
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 4R-QF-1R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-finals, 2023 Wimbledon
2024 record: 0-0 Sinner produced plenty towards the end of last season to suggest he’s capable of challenging for the sport’s biggest prizes in 2024. He beat Novak Djokovic twice – at the ATP Finals and Davis Cup Finals – and probably wouldn’t have wanted the season to end. As long as he’s wintered well, to use racing parlance, the Italian should be one to fear in Melbourne. That said, he’s not got the best record at Sinner produced plenty towards the end of last season to suggest he’s capable of challenging for the sport’s biggest prizes in 2024. He beat Novak Djokovic twice – at the ATP Finals and Davis Cup Finals – and probably wouldn’t have wanted the season to end. As long as he’s wintered well, to use racing parlance, the Italian should be one to fear in Melbourne. That said, he’s not got the best record at the tournament and there are doubts about how he’ll perform if it gets brutally hot, albeit the forecast is not for that to happen.
Daniil Medvedev – 9/1
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: 3R-RU-RU-4R-4R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2021 US Open
2024 record: 0-0
Twice a finalist here in the last three years, Medvedev should fancy his chances. He should have won in 2022 when two sets up on Rafael Nadal but at least he does know what it takes to win a Grand Slam, having claimed the US Open title in 2021. He has made at least the semis in six of his last nine hardcourt Slams, which shows his propensity for the surface. Is also a player who has caused Djokovic problems in the past, winning five of their 15 meetings.
Alex Zverev – 25/1
World ranking: 6
Tournament history: 2R-4R-QF-SF-4R-3R-3R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2020 US Open
2024 record: 4-1
Arrives at the Australian Open fresh from having helped Germany lift the United Cup, beating Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas along the way. I say fresh but in reality Zverev cut a jaded figure at the end of a week which also saw him take to the court for several mixed doubles rubbers. Could that hectic opening-week schedule come back to haunt him in the often tough conditions of Melbourne? Has only made one semi-final in eight previous visits.
Best of the rest
While the ‘Big Four’ of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray have dominated at all the Grand Slam tournaments over the past 20 years, traditionally the Australian Open has thrown up some surprise winners and finalists, largely due to its position in the calendar.
Many players arrive undercooked given the event comes just three weeks into the new season, hence the reason why former champions include Thomas Johansson and Petr Korda and how Fernando Gonzalez and Marcos Baghdatis have finished runners-up.
With this in mind and plenty of the favourites looking unconvincing in their market positions, it’s worth looking further down the betting for some potential value.
Alex de Minaur has often started the year well in his home country and that’s been the case again in 2024 – he played some great stuff at the United Cup, beating Djokovic among others.
He may have his backers at 50/1, although the fact is the Aussie has often struggled against the game’s elite – he’s 16-39 against top-10 opponents – and he’s yet to go past the last 16 at his home Grand Slam.
Instead, let’s try Grigor Dimitrov at 33/1.
Some will say this is jumping on a bandwagon after the Bulgarian’s success at the Brisbane International in the opening week of the season.
However, he’s always on the radar heading Down Under given his excellent record in Australia.
In the Big Four era, not too many players have managed to make four quarter-finals or better at this event, Dimitrov’s best effort coming in 2017 when he lost an epic semi-final in five sets to Nadal.
Also in Australia, he’s now won twice in Brisbane and made another final, while he’s also finished runner-up in Sydney in the past.
Some will feel the value is gone but, for me, Dimitrov was playing very well last week and looks to have a decent each-way chance at 33/1.
Another player with a strong record at the Australian Open is Stefanos Tsitsipas and he may be being under-rated.
2023 was not the Greek’s best year but he’ll be starting from scratch again here and will doubtless look to draw on his many good experiences at Melbourne Park.
He’s made the last two finals and has reached the semis in four of the last five editions.
No-one else in the top 10, bar Djokovic, has that sort of record in a city which features a huge Greek immigrant population, who will cheer Tsitsipas on in every match he plays.
At 33/1, he’s certainly worthy of consideration with the hope being that he gets a decent draw on Thursday.
Best bets:
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