Andy Schooler looks at the 2024 Wimbledon ladies’ singles, profiling the leading contenders and highlighting some of their stats.
Aryna Sabalenka – 3/1
World ranking (as of June 24): 3
Tournament history (most recent 1st): SF-SF-1R-1R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 & 2024 Australian Open
Grasscourt form: QF Berlin
The lead-up to Wimbledon on the women’s side has been dominated by injury concerns, none bigger than the one hanging over title favourite Sabalenka. She withdrew from the warm-up event in Berlin with a shoulder injury – not the kind of problem you want when the serve is a massive weapon in your arsenal. The two-time semi-finalist will hope to go a step further this year and knows what it takes to win the game’s biggest prizes – she’s the reigning Australian Open champion. However, her power game will need her body to stand up to the rigours of a two-week tournament and, right now, that has to be a worry for punters.
Iga Swiatek – 7/2
World ranking: 1
Tournament history: QF-3R-4R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 5 times
Grasscourt form: None
The Queen of Clay once again ruled at Roland Garros this year but conquering grass has been a much tougher challenge for the world number one. She’s yet to go beyond the last eight in SW19 with the faster, low-bouncing surface far from ideal for a player who likes to line up her well-timed, punishing groundstrokes. Opted not to play on grass in the lead-up to Wimbledon, withdrawing from Berlin after her latest French Open triumph. Doesn’t look a great price but with so many doubts surrounding her title rivals, perhaps this will be the Pole’s year.
Elena Rybakina – 9/2
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: QF-W-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, Wimbledon 2022
Grasscourt form: QF Berlin
The 2022 champion is another of those who arrives in London under an injury cloud. She quit Berlin citing an abdominal injury and duly withdrew from Eastbourne with the same problem. Like Sabalenka, that’s a worrying issue as it will affect the Kazakh as she reaches up to serve. Rybakina possesses one of the best serves in the women’s game and if that shot isn’t at 100 per cent, it’s hard to see how she’ll find a way to win this title.
Coco Gauff – 13/2
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 1R-3R-4R-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 US Open
Grasscourt form: SF Berlin
Gauff famously made her big breakthrough at Wimbledon when aged just 15. She beat Venus Williams en route to the last 16 that year but hasn’t been past that stage since. However, unlike many of her contemporaries, the American doesn’t seem fazed by the grass and is able to tweak her game for the surface. Showed that when making the Berlin semis recently, although further improvement may well be required for her to triumph here. Knows what it takes to win a title such as this having captured her maiden Grand Slam at last year’s US Open.
Ons Jabeur – 12/1
World ranking: 10
Tournament history: RU-RU-QF-1R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2022 & 2023 Wimbledon, 2023 US Open
Grasscourt form: QF Berlin
Having reached the last two Wimbledon finals, will it be third time lucky for Jabeur? An improved showing at the French Open, where she reached the quarter-finals, suggested it is possible. The Tunisian’s ability to mix things up – she possesses power and finesse – was on show in Paris and that variety has served her well on the Wimbledon lawns before. Was another to leave Berlin without losing, withdrawing through illness. She should have recovered with a bigger worry for potential backers being the fact she failed to deliver her best tennis in either previous final, appearing to be affected by nerves on the biggest stage.
Best of the rest
Naomi Osaka will have her backers after an eyecatching performance at the French Open took her within a point of defeating eventual champion Swiatek.
However, odds of 12/1 look too short for a player who is yet to reach a semi-final since returning to the tour as a mother in January.
It feels a little strange to see the defending champion up at 20/1 but Marketa Vondrousova hasn’t made a final since her 2023 triumph and is another who is dealing with an injury (hip) as the days tick down to her title defence.
It’s probably better to consider those who have shown some form on the grass of late.
Perhaps former world number three Jessica Pegula can build on her grasscourt breakthrough in Berlin where she sidestepped the withdrawal chaos to claim her maiden title on the surface.
She certainly has the talent and with that new-found confidence on the green stuff, she has potential at 20/1, especially if those other injuries don’t heal.
For a real outsider, consider Beatriz Haddad Maia at 100/1.
The Brazilian has played well on the grass in the past and it was only two years ago that she won 13 consecutive matches ahead of Wimbledon and was going off five times shorter.
Last season she made the last 16 in SW19 and only bowed out to defending champ Rybakina because of a hip injury.
Admittedly, form hasn’t been great in 2024 but this surface could well help Haddad Maia recapture that.
Best bets
Ons Jabeur (each way) – 12/1
Beatriz Haddad Maia (each way) – 100/1
