Ahead of Wimbledon 2024, Andy Schooler runs through the contenders, their stats and offers his best bets for the men’s singles.
Jannik Sinner – 7/4
World ranking (as of June 24): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): SF-QF-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 Australian Open
Grasscourt form: W Halle
It’s hard to argue with Sinner’s position of world number one – he’s been the best player on the circuit for the best part of 12 months now. Since losing to Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of last year’s Wimbledon, the Italian has gone 16-3 against top-10 opponents and captured his first Grand Slam title at January’s Australian Open. Few hit the ball as hard as Sinner, who has recently added another string to his bow – possibly the final piece in his Wimbledon jigsaw. He won on grass for the first time in Halle in the lead up to this tournament (the serve particularly good) so looks a justifiable joint favourite for the title.
Carlos Alcaraz – 7/4
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: W-4R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 French Open, 2023 Wimbledon & 2022 US Open
Grasscourt form: L16 Queen’s Club
Came of age on grass by winning Wimbledon 12 months ago, upsetting Novak Djokovic in a thrilling five-set final. Has the ability to thrill the crowds with his tremendous shot-making and, significantly, is a strong volleyer when he comes to the net. Loves a drop shot too. Naturally, Alcaraz is more at home on clay and he arrives here having only recently achieved his career goal of winning the French Open. That likely played a part in his early loss at Queen’s to Briton Jack Draper. The big question for potential backers is will he be able to switch back on mentally following that success?
Novak Djokovic – 4/1
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: RU-W-W-W-W-QF-3R-W-W-RU-SF-W-SF-QF-2R-SF-4R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times (7 at Wimbledon)
Grasscourt form: None
Djokovic appears to have made a remarkable recovery from knee surgery which he underwent immediately after withdrawing from the French Open mid-tournament with a meniscus tear. He’s already been hitting on the grass of the All England Club, although he is yet to confirm whether or not he will play. The Serb says he will only contest the event if he is “close to my maximum”. Djokovic has often won Wimbledon with little grasscourt preparation, although this scenario is a little different and it hasn’t been a good season so far with no titles pocketed on the ATP Tour. Looks a risky bet.
Alex Zverev – 14/1
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 3R-4R-1R-3R-4R-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2024 French Open & 2020 US Open
Grasscourt form: SF Halle
The 27-year-old has never won a grasscourt title and is yet to go beyond the last 16 at Wimbledon. Those are not good stats for a player considered the fourth favourite. The reason for his short(ish) price is his strong form on other surfaces – Zverev is back in the world’s top four and recently made the French Open final. However, he suffered an agonising defeat in that match – one he led by two sets to one – and you wonder what effect that will have on him going forward. Hard to see him contending if conditions are slippery and low bouncing but if the courts get sun-baked and the balls start kicking up more, maybe he’ll just have a chance.
Hubert Hurkacz – 16/1
World ranking: 7
Tournament history: 4R-1R-SF-3R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-finalist, Wimbledon 2021
Grasscourt form: RU Halle
Serve-and-volley tennis may no longer be required to win Wimbledon but having a big serve certainly still helps. Nick Kyrgios, Matteo Berrettini Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic are recent examples of players who have used that shot to great effect in SW19 (all made the final) and of the current bunch, Hurkacz arguably has the most destructive serve. He served more aces than anyone last season and is on course to repeat the trick in 2024. A semi-finalist three years ago, the Pole pushed Djokovic hard here last year. He warmed up with a run at the final in Halle and could well go deep again here.
Best of the rest
Matteo Berrettini’s grasscourt credentials are hard to beat, certainly for anyone not in the list above.
Since the start of 2019, the Italian is 40-6 on grass, a run which has taken in four titles, as well as the 2021 Wimbledon final.
It also includes a recent final in Stuttgart, a week which saw Berrettini prove his fitness after two months out due to injury.
He’s still arguably undercooked yet he made the last 16 of Wimbledon last season having played little tennis coming in and took the first set off eventual champion Alcaraz.
You have to wonder if Berrettini is ready for seven best-of-five-set matches but, if his fitness is there, then he has the potential to make odds of 25/1 look big.
The man who beat him in that Stuttgart final, Briton Jack Draper, must also be considered a decent outsider, although his odds are almost certainly too short at 18/1 due to the ‘patriotic punt’ factor.
Draper is another who has struggled with injury in the past too, while the likelihood is he’s carrying most home hopes at Wimbledon this year and how he reacts to the extra media attention will be interesting to see.
Alex de Minaur won in Den Bosch the same week and he’s enjoyed a fine season on all surfaces but, like Draper, you just wonder if he’s a little short now his price has contracted to 22/1.
For those seeking big prices, Queen’s Club winner Tommy Paul is worthy of consideration at 60/1.
He made the last 16 here two years ago and, following the biggest win of his career, should be full of confidence coming in.
Finally, I’ll mention another of the big servers, namely Alexander Bublik.
The Kazakh’s first serve is virtually guaranteed to produce aces aplenty on this surface and if he keeps his first-serve percentage high, Bublik will be hard to stop.
However, his preparation has been hit by injury, while the second serve is undoubtedly attackable and his mental approach often poor.
Still, Bublik is the sort of player who might just find the groove for one Grand Slam in his career – it happened with another streaky player, Fernando Gonzalez, who made the 2007 Australian Open final.
If it’s going to happen, it may well do so on grass. 90/1 will tempt some…
Best Bets
Carlos Alcaraz – 7/4
Hubert Hurkacz (each way) – 16/1
