AL East Betting: Who Will Win the AL East in 2025?

In 2024, the New York Yankees made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers. This year, the path back to the World Series isn’t as clear for the Yankees as the AL East division has gotten stronger. The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best young cores in the league and are hungry to prove themselves after falling short last season. The Boston Red Sox could be one of the most improved teams in the league and the Toronto Blue Jays were active in free agency this offseason.

So, which team has the best chance to win the competitive AL East division in 2025? Of the five teams, three are legitimate American League Pennant threats. If you are thinking about betting on MLB Outright Division Winner Futures, this article will tell you everything you need to know about the AL East division.

AL East Division Betting

New York Yankees

Are the defending AL East Division Champions deserving of short odds? Just based on last year’s performance they are but if you’re a Yankees fan or backer, you should definitely be concerned about what has transpired since we last saw the Bronx Bombers in October. Since then, the Yankees have lost Juan Soto to the cross-town rival New York Mets and have lost ace Gerrit Cole for the season to Tommy John surgery. They’re also without the services of reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil for the first few months of the season.

To make up for the loss of Soto the Yankees have brought in Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt, and are letting top prospect Jasson Dominguez earn his spot in the outfield. The Yankees also signed former Braves ace Max Fried and added top closer Devin Williams to their bullpen.

Is it enough to help the Yankees repeat? Losing Cole is a major blow to their rotation as the undisputed ace. Yankees fans can thank their lucky stars that the team acquired Fried in free agency. They should also be getting Gil back at some point during the season to help out but will need to rely on Marcus Stroman and veteran Carlos Carrasco to get them through the first part of the year.

Have the Yankees done enough to overcome the loss of Soto and now Cole? They still have the best player in the division and the best power hitter in baseball in Aaron Judge. But the division should be more competitive, and the path back to the playoffs isn’t as clear as it was last season.

Baltimore Orioles

Last season, it seemed like the Orioles would finally be stepping out from the shadows of their big brothers in New York and Boston. After stumbling a bit in the second half, the Orioles finished the season second in the AL East with a record of 91-71, easily taking the first AL Wildcard berth. But the Orioles would fall in two straight games to the Kansas City Royals, ending their season in devastating fashion.

Baltimore’s young core is coming together led by Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschmann. The Orioles have a deep outfield unit, even after losing Anthony Santander to free agency. Where they’ll likely struggle is in their rotation. Baltimore lost ace Corbin Burnes to the Arizona Diamondbacks in free agency and will likely start the season without Greyson Rodriguez. The Orioles will be deploying a veteran rotation with names like Kyle Gibson, Charlie Morton, and Zach Eflin. Solid starters but not exactly a murderer’s row.

The bullpen looks solid as Baltimore gets closer Felix Bautista back from injury. Is it enough to make up for what appears to be a weak rotation? Baltimore should be a solid club, but the absence of a legitimate ace means they have a fairly low ceiling compared to New York and Boston.

Boston Red Sox

If there was an award for the most improved roster, Boston would certainly be in the running this year. In a busy offseason for the Red Sox, the team added ace Garrett Crochet as well as World Series hero Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito to their rotation. They also signed star free agent third baseman Alex Bregman and could potentially have top prospects Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony in the Opening Day lineup.

Will it all fit together properly? There was already friction when the Red Sox signed Bregman as their current best player Rafael Devers, also plays third base. This means one would likely be moved to the DH spot and since Bregman is a far superior defender, it looks like it will be Devers.

Although the lineup is solid, it probably isn’t quite as deep as the Yankees or Orioles. The Red Sox could arguably have the strongest rotation in the division as long as Crochet can hold up to a bigger workload than he’s ever had. There are question marks and the Red Sox have to prove they can bring it all together, but the lineup certainly has the potential to be a legitimate threat to the Yankees this year.

Tampa Bay Rays

Do the Tampa Bay Rays have a shot at winning the AL East Division? A long one and a lot of things need to go right for them and wrong for the other teams. Tampa Bay has the usual scrappy lineup with the notable full-time addition of top prospect Junior Caminero this year. Caminero should bring a legitimate power threat to the top of the lineup. He struggled in Spring Training but hit a few home runs.

The rotation took a hit when Shane McClanahan left a Spring Training game with a triceps injury. That’s not great news for a pitcher who missed the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The rest of the rotation doesn’t inspire much confidence and neither does the bullpen. The Rays are appropriately priced but there’s no reason that the team with the lowest odds can’t surpass Tampa early in the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Their odds might be shocking to some bettors but they are usually derived from last season’s results so it shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise. Is Toronto as bad as last year? Probably not. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Toronto was the team that most outperformed its preseason expectations this year.

The Jays have a solid, yet unspectacular rotation even after the addition of Max Scherzer. Toronto also replaced closer Jordan Romano with Jeff Hoffman. In the outfield, Toronto added Anthony Santander and they added Andres Gimenez in the infield. Other than that, the Jays will return with mostly the same roster that underperformed in 2024.

On paper, the Jays have a better roster than the Rays, so the low odds don’t make much sense. If you’re betting on the Jays to win the AL East division, you better hope that the pending free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t hang over the clubhouse this year.

Best Bet to Win the AL East Division

At low odds, the New York Yankees aren’t the best value bet you can make on what should be a wide-open AL East division. With the rotation Baltimore has, the Orioles aren’t a great value either. The Jays can be tempting if things fall right this year, but our choice for the best bet to win the AL East Division is the Boston Red Sox.

A lot of this will depend on ace Garret Crochet’s arm. He put up monster numbers in Spring Training but last season was easily his career high with 146.0 innings pitched. Before that, his highest number of innings worked in a season was 54.1.

The offence is there, albeit a little top-heavy in the lineup. Still, Boston checks off most of the boxes and it is a much better value bet than taking the Yankees or Orioles.

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