Andy Schooler takes take a statistical look at the contenders for the French Open women’s singles title and picks out his best bets.
Iga Swiatek – 4/6
World ranking (as of May 20): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): W-W-QF-W-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Claycourt form: W Rome, W Madrid, SF Stuttgart
It’s frankly hard to look past the favourite, Swiatek has won this title in three of the past four years and is on her way to becoming one of the all-time greats on clay. Form is strong too with titles captured in Rome and Madrid ahead of this tournament – a surprise loss to Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart seems a long way off. Still, it does remind us that the world number one is beatable and I guess the price won’t suit every punter.
Aryna Sabalenka – 5/1
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: SF-3R-3R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 & 2024 Australian Open
Claycourt form: RU Rome, RU Madrid, QF Stuttgart
Sabalenka’s consistency at the Grand Slams has been incredible over the past couple of years – she arrives in Paris having not lost before the semi-finals at her last six major tournaments. The most recent, January’s Australian Open, saw her emerge triumphant, putting aside concerns about her ability to close out the big matches – it was here 12 months ago that she lost to Karolina Muchova from match point up. Form is good with finals reached in Madrid and Rome but, notably, it was Swiatek too strong on both occasions, even the faster conditions of the Spanish capital unable to swing things the Belarusian’s way. However, if Swiatek loses early…
Coco Gauff – 15/2
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: QF-RU-QF-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 US Open
Claycourt form: SF Rome, L16 Madrid, QF Stuttgart
The US Open champion played well in Rome before losing to Swiatek in the last four, showing signs she is improving her form at the right time. Clay probably isn’t Gauff’s strongest surface but she has been to the final here before (losing to Swiatek two years ago). Yet to find top form in 2024 and will probably need to discover it in order to challenge in Paris.
Elena Rybakina – 15/2
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 3R-3R-QF-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2022 Wimbledon
Claycourt form: SF Madrid, W Stuttgart
The former Wimbledon champion would prefer a faster surface but, still, she’s arguably the one player who won’t fear Swiatek in this field – Rybakina beat the Pole en route to the indoor clay title in Stuttgart, her third of the season. She’s since been to the semis in Madrid to improve her 2024 win-loss record to an impressive 30-5. However, the worry for potential backers is the fact she withdrew from Rome citing illness with few details given. If fully fit, Rybakina could go deep.
Danielle Collins – 20/1
World ranking: 12
Tournament history: 1R-2R-3R-QF-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2022 Australian Open
Claycourt form: SF Rome, L16 Madrid, W Charleston
Having announced a 2024 retirement plan in January, Collins duly won the biggest title of her career in Miami just weeks later. That sparked a run of 19 wins in 21 matches, one which took in the title on the green clay of Charleston. The American loves to thump the ball and is renowned for her fighting abilities, roaring herself on, often getting into the head of her opponent. Given her form, Collins looks a big price.
Best of the rest
Qinwen Zheng started the season by reaching the Australian Open final but she’s really failed to build on that result. However, there were better signs in Rome recently where the Chinese beat Linda Noskova and Naomi Osaka before losing to Coco Gauff in the last eight.
Former coach Wim Fisette says clay is “where you see here at her best” thanks to her movement, speed and crunching forehand.
She could make waves at 25/1.
Marketa Vondrousova is the reigning Wimbledon champion but it should be remembered that her first Grand Slam final came at Roland Garros (losing to Ash Barty in 2019).
The Czech has the court craft which is well suited to clay, her drop shot is just one example of her ability to mix things up.
She beat Sabalenka in Stuttgart recently and while other results have been less impressive, with good draw on Thursday, Vondrousova has the potential for another final run at 40/1.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning 100/1 shot Madison Keys, who has again played some impressive tennis in the run-up to a Grand Slam tournament.
It took Swiatek to beat her in both Madrid and Rome with Keys reaching the semis and quarters respectively.
Gauff, Ons Jabeur and Beatriz Haddad Maia were all beaten across those two events.
Few hit the ball harder than Keys and when she’s on song few can stop her charge, even if she has talked down her ability on clay saying the surface “takes away from my attributes – everything is dampened just a little bit”.
Another who will probably need Swiatek to lose before any potential clash but then if the draw goes well, having 100/1 onside will certainly make each-way appeal.
Best bets:
Iga Swiatek – 4/6
Danielle Collins each way – 20/1
Madison Keys each way – 100/1
