Andy Schooler runs through the contenders, digs out the stats and offers his best bets for the 2024 French Open men’s singles.
Carlos Alcaraz – 2/1
World ranking (as of May 20): 3
Tournament history (most recent 1st): SF-QF-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2022 US Open & 2023 Wimbledon
Claycourt form: QF Madrid
A shaky-looking tournament favourite given his claycourt season has been severely disrupted by an arm injury which forced him to miss both Monte Carlo and Rome. The clay is the Spaniard’s favourite surface but he’s yet to truly shine at Roland Garros. Last year he reached the semis but cramped up under the pressure exerted by Novak Djokovic. Undoubtedly has the ability to win this event but looks too short to do so this year.
Novak Djokovic – 11/4
World ranking : 1
Tournament history: W-QF-W-RU-SF-QF-QF-W-RU-RU-SF-RU-SF-QF-3R-SF-SF-QF-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Claycourt form: L32 Rome, SF Monte Carlo
The defending champion is another player heading to Paris under something of a cloud. At time of writing, Djokovic is without a title in 2024 which is pretty much unheard of for the world number one. He’s thrown in some very iffy performances so far this season, losing to the likes of Luca Nardi and Alejandro Tabilo. Everyone knows the greatest player of all time could win in Paris but those backing him to do so are making that judgement on the Serb’s long-term history, not his current form.
Jannik Sinner – 4/1
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 2R-4R-4R-QF
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 Australian Open
Claycourt form: QF Madrid, SF Monte Carlo
Made his big breakthrough at this year’s Australian Open, coming from two sets down in the final to beat Daniil Medvedev. However, Sinner is another whose body has been letting him down of late with a worrying hip problem seeing him quit Madrid ahead of his quarter-final and then withdraw from Rome. Movement is key on clay, a surface the Italian admits is his weakest. Has arguably been the world’s best player for a long time now but this doesn’t look a great time to be putting your cash on him.
Alex Zverev – 6/1
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: SF-SF-SF-4R-QF-QF-1R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2020 US Open
Claycourt form: W Rome, L16 Madrid, QF Munich, L16 Monte Carlo
Has Zverev hit form at just the right time? Maybe. He finished his preparations for Roland Garros by winning the Rome Masters. And, like Rome, the French Open is a tournament at which the German has regularly delivered in the past – he’s made the semi-finals of the last three editions and was looking very strong two years ago when a serious injury halted his last-four clash with Rafael Nadal. The worry with Zverev is his trial over domestic-abuse allegations is due to begin in Germany during the tournament. While he won’t have to attend, it will undoubtedly lead to distractions off court, particularly during press conferences, something which has irked Zverev in the past.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – 7/1
World ranking: 9
Tournament history: QF-4R-RU-SF-4R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 2023 Australian Open & 2021 French Open
Claycourt form: QF Rome, L64 Madrid, RU Barcelona, W Monte Carlo
A return to the clay has brought a return to form for the Greek. He won the Monte Carlo Masters before reaching the Barcelona final, although losing from a position of strength in the Rome quarter-finals wasn’t exactly ideal. Still, Tsitsipas is looking much more like a title contender than he did at the start of April and he’s made the final in Paris before. His backhand is often described as a weakness but it is less exposed on clay than the faster surfaces. Certainly has potential.
Best of the rest
It seems very strange not have already mentioned 14-time champion Rafael Nadal in this piece but that in itself says much.
The Spaniard spent almost a year on the sidelines through injury and his return – which would have been aimed at this very tournament – hasn’t exactly gone to plan with his body clearly still not how he would want it to be.
At least Nadal has managed to play three consecutive tournaments leading into Roland Garros, a run which included an eyecatching victory over world number 11 Alex de Minaur.
However, it’s now best-of-five-sets tennis – another problem for that ailing body – and the once-unimaginable odds of 11/1 still look too short.
At a point lower, Casper Ruud looks a much better bet.
The Norwegian has made the last two French Open finals and has won in Barcelona in the lead into the tournament. He also finished runner-up in Monte Carlo.
Always an under-rated server, Ruud has made some tweaks to his ground game in a bid to go one better in 2024 and that should not be ruled out at all.
Looikng further down the market, a couple of long shots are worth a mention.
Taylor Fritz isn’t a player you necessarily associate with a strong clay court game but the big-serving American has enjoyed the surface in recent weeks.
Unlike many of his compatriots, he was quick to head to Europe and while he lost early in Monte Carlo he’s since been to the final in Munich, semis in Madrid and quarters in Rome.
Top-10 stars Grigor Dimitrov and Hubert Hurkacz have been mong his victims, although it’s fair to say he’s not beaten too many of the clay elite.
Still, with injury doubts surrounding many of them, a kind draw on Thursday could really offer an in-form player a chance of going deep.
There’s certainly each-way potential at 66/1.
The same could be said about Alejandro Tabilo, the player who took down Djokovic and Karen Khachanov in Rome en route to the semi-finals where he was only a game away from beating eventual champ Zverev.
At all levels over the last six months, Tabilo has won an awful lot of matches with the Chilean transferring his success a Challenger level to the main tour. He’s credited a psychologist as one of the reasons for his improvement.
Tabilo was a surprise winner on the Auckland hardcourts in January but he’s most at home on the clay – and on that surface he made the final in Santiago before heading to Europe.
Will need to buck a 19-year trend of no South American making the final here – Argentina’s Mariano Puerta was the last to do so in 2005 – but with a bit of luck in the draw, Tabilo may just contend at 80/1.
Best bets:
Casper Ruud – 11/1
Alejandro Tabilo (each way) – 80/1
