The Tyne-Wear Derby Takes Centre-Stage On MW31
St James’ Park | Premier League | Sunday March 22 | 12:00pm UK
Ahead of the hugely anticipated Tyne-Wear derby, BetVictor News has the Newcastle vs Sunderland preview, prediction, H2H record, team news, betting angles and more.
Newcastle Vs Sunderland Preview
Just three months after Newcastle’s Nick Woltermade scored an unfortunate own goal which gifted Sunderland a close 1-0 win at the Stadium of Light, the North East nemesis get to go toe-to-toe at St James’ Park in the reverse fixture.
The Tyne-Wear derby is one of the fiercest contests on the Premier League calendar. It goes without saying, it is not for the faint of heart. Two sets of fans who genuinely can’t stand each other will be desperate to secure local bragging rights.
The atmosphere inside St James’ will be absolutely electric, with both sets of fans being emotionally charged. The Magpies will be keen to get back to winning ways after their Barcelona humbling midweek. The 7-2 defeat will need to be quickly forgotten but domestically, results have gone Eddie Howe’s way of late.
Last week’s 1-0 win at Chelsea – the first in the league since that Papiss Cisse masterclass in 2012 – meant the Geordie Boys moved into ninth spot. Two points and four places above the Mackems. They also recorded a fine 2-1 win against Manchester United at the start of the month. Scoring a last minute winner having played the whole of the second-half with 10-men.
As for the Mackems, they have endured a turbulent time of late. After a gleaming start to the season, Regis Le Bris side have lost three home games on the bounce. Le Bris’ men were also beaten by lowly Port Vale in the FA Cup fifth round recently.
The only positive in recent weeks was the 1-0 victory at Leeds United’s Elland Road. A ground in which the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool have struggled at this season. Although the Black Cats aren’t in great form, history in the Tyne-Wear derby certainly favous them.
The Mackems haven’t tasted defeat in the fixture in England’s top-flight since 2011, which is something to consider when it comes to Premier League betting on BetVictor’s Newcastle vs Sunderland betting markets.
Newcastle Vs Sunderland H2H Record
The H2H record over the last five meetings sits firmly in Sunderland’s favour. They were victorious in the first meeting this term and the only defeat in the recent run occured in the FA Cup. When the Black Cats were still a struggling EFL Championship side.
- December 2025: Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
- January 2024: Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle (FA Cup)
- March 2016: Newcastle 1-1 Sunderland
- October 2015: Sunderland 3-0 Newcastle
- April 2015: Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
In terms of the overall Newcastle vs Sunderland H2H record, the warring duo are evenly poised at 54 wins each. Since the first derby clash in 1898, there have been 49 draws recorded.
Newcastle’s Results
Newcastle have endured a rather stop-start season. However, they are still in the reckoning for a Premier League top 5 finish this term. But a victory over their arch-rivals is vital to enhance their chances.
Their five most recent results paint a mixed picture:
- 7-2 loss at Barcelona (conceded 4.29 xG, 37% possession)
- 1-0 win at Chelsea (xG near-level at 1.41 vs 1.39, effective on the counter with just 33% possession)
- 1-1 home draw with Barcelona (balanced contest, xG 1.3 vs 1.42)
- 3-1 home loss to Manchester City (conceded 2.91 xG, 37% possession)
- 2-1 home win over Manchester United (dominant, xG 2.48 vs 1.48)
The Chelsea result stands out. The Magpies had limited possession but sharp execution. That counter-attacking threat is real and it showed in the xG.
The stat to flag here is timing. Newcastle generate 26.67% of their goals between 76 and 90 minutes. They are a team that can hurt you late. However, that same window is also when they are most vulnerable defensively, and where they pick up the most yellow cards (14 in that period). The final quarter of this game could be chaotic.
Sunderland’s Results
Sunderland’s recent run is a concerning – especially the lacklustre defeat to Port Vale in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Still, form typically goes out of the window in a derby clash but the Black Cats do need to put in a strong performance at St James’ Park.
- 1-0 home loss to Brighton (conceded 1.68 xG despite 48% possession)
- 1-0 away loss to Port Vale (dominated on xG at 1.91 vs 0.9, 69% possession, but lost)
- 1-0 away win at Leeds (counter-attack job, just 30% possession, xG 0.86 vs 1.15)
- 1-1 draw at Bournemouth (outplayed on xG, 1.42 vs 1.71)
- 3-1 home loss to Fulham (level xG at 1.85 vs 1.88, result flattered Fulham slightly)
The key timing stat for Sunderland: 32.14% of their goals come between 61 and 75 minutes. That’s their danger window. Interestingly, it’s also when they are most likely to concede. The middle section of the second half is where this game could be won or lost.
It’s also worth noting Sunderland’s disciplinary profile for bookings market bettors: Sunderland’s most yellow cards (15) are concentrated in the 46-60 minute period — a different disciplinary window from Newcastle, and one that could offer value in bookings markets targeting the early part of the second half.
Newcastle Vs Sunderland Betting Angles
Time-Based Bets: Tread Carefully
The data creates a fascinating but tricky picture for time-based markets. Sunderland peaks between 61 and 75 minutes. Newcastle peaks between 76 and 90 minutes. These windows don’t overlap, which means both sides carry a genuine threat at different points in the second half.
The smart money here is caution. Backing either team to score in a specific window feels risky when both sides have proven vulnerabilities in those exact same periods. The value probably isn’t there on those markets.
The xG Story
Sunderland’s recent xG numbers suggest a team running slightly below their expected output. Losing to Port Vale while generating nearly double the xG of their opponents is a red flag for their finishing, but it’s also the kind of variance that tends to correct itself.
Newcastle’s xG profile is more volatile. They were genuinely outclassed at Barcelona but showed real clinical edge against Chelsea and Manchester United. When they’re on the counter, they can hurt anyone.
The Late Drama Factor
Newcastle’s 76-90 minute profile is the most compelling angle in this match. They score late, they concede late, and they collect cards late. If this game is level going into the final 15 minutes, it’s worth expecting something to happen. That makes markets around late goals worth a look, but always with the understanding that nothing is guaranteed in a derby.
Newcastle Vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Newcastle predicted lineup (4-3-3):
Ramsdale, Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Willock, Joelinton, Ramsey, Elanga, Gordon, Barnes
Sunderland predicted lineup (4-2-3-1):
Ellborg, Geertruida, O’Nien, Alderete, Hume, Xhaka, Sadiki, Rigg, Diarra, Mayenda, Brobbey
Newcastle Vs Sunderland Prediction
Although Sunderland have the upperhand over Newcastle across the most recent meetings, the Black Cats are likely to be missing key players such as Dan Ballard, Robin Roefs and Enzo Le Fee.
Therefore, Newcastle will potentially start the match with a psychological advantage. And with revenge very much on the agenda, we are predicting the Geordie Boys to get the job done on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Sunderland
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