Midtjylland Beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 In The Europa League Ro16 First-Leg
MCH Arena (Herning) | Europa League | Thursday March 19 | 5:45pm UK
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest Preview
Nottingham Forest will be aiming to make it third time lucky when they take on Midtjylland in the Europa League round of 16 second-leg on Thursday. The Premier League strugglers slipped to a 1-0 defeat last week and also lost 3-2 in the league phase back in October.
Both games have been extremely tight, whereby Forest registered 22 shots compared to the Wolves six at the City Ground on March 12 with an xG of 1.72 to 0.69. The Tricky Trees had no problems creating, they just couldn’t tuck their chances away.
This is something very much worth keeping in mind when it comes to Europa League betting on BetVictor’s Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest betting markets. Forest also failed to find their shooting boots in the 0-0 draw with Fulham in the Premier League on Sunday. Amazingly, they have converted just one chance from 99 attempts across their last five home games in all competitions.
Clearing, finding the back of the net is proving to be their downfall at present. However, recently installed head coach Vitor Pereira will have marshalled his troops well prior to the trip to Denmark. Especially as Midtjylland are proving a worthy foe to the two-time European Cup winners.
Playing away from home may just work in Pereira’s favour without the pressure of the City Ground faithful becoming irate. However, their hosts hold the psychological advantage with their two victories this term and they know they have what it takes to advance to the quarter-final.
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest H2H Record
Although the Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest H2H record has only existed since the latter part of 2025, the Danes are already the clear leaders. Cho Gue-sung scored the only goal of the game in the 80th minute last time out. In the league phase clash, Dan Ndoye and Chris Wood scored netted for Forest with Ousmane Diao, Mads Bech Sorenson and Valdemar Andreasen on target for the Wolves.
- March 12, 2026: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Midtjylland
- October 2, 2025: Nottingham Forest 2-3 Midtjylland
Midtjylland’s Europa League And Domestic Results
Including the three rounds of qualifiers, Midtjylland have won an impressive 12 times from 14 appearances in the 2025-26 Europa League. The only slip-ups came against Roma (lost 2-1) and Brann (drew 3-3).
Domestically, the Wolves most recent result was a 1-0 home loss to FC Nordsjaelland on March 15, but even that was an even game. xG was 1.1 vs 0.73 in Midtjylland’s favour, and shots were level at nine each. They were unlucky to lose that one.
One thing to watch closely: Midtjylland are at their most dangerous between 76 and 90 minutes, accounting for 25% of their goals in that window. However, that same period is also when they’re most vulnerable defensively and when they pick up the most yellow cards (5 in that window). The final quarter of this game could be chaotic.
Nottingham Forest’s Europa League And Premier League Results
In the Europa League this season, Nottingham Forest have won five of their 11 games. The most impressive victories came against Porto in the league phase (won 2-0) and away at Fenerbahce in the play-off first-leg (won 3-0). The Tricky Tress also have five clean sheets in Europe’s secondary club competition.
Domestically, Forest have struggled recently. They are without a win since the 2-0 victory over Brentford in late January and shared the spoils in the 0-0 draw with Fulham on March 15. Prior to that, they did register a fine 2-2 draw away to Manchester City.
Their attacking threat tends to arrive early. 36.84% of Forest’s goals come between the 16th and 30th minute, so if they’re going to get back into this tie, expect the opening exchanges to matter enormously. The flip side? That same 16-30 minute window is also when the Tricky Trees are most likely to concede, which gives Midtjylland something to target from the first whistle.
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest Weather Conditions
It’ll be cold in Herning. Around 5.5°C at kickoff, feeling like 2.2°C with a moderate wind. Low chance of rain. Not extreme conditions, but it’s the kind of night that tends to suit the home side more than a visiting team trying to play expansive football.
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest Betting Angles
The xG story favours Nottingham Forest in spirit, but not on the scoreboard. They outplayed Midtjylland in the first-leg and still lost. That’s the frustrating reality for Vitor Pereira’s side heading into this second-leg.
The value in time-based markets requires caution here. Both teams have peak attacking windows that directly clash with their peak defensive vulnerability windows. Midtjylland threaten late, Forest threaten early. Backing either team to score in a specific period carries real risk given how these patterns overlap.
The smart money suggests that Midtjylland’s defensive record (8 clean sheets in the Europa League, including qualifiers) combined with their home advantage makes them difficult to back against. Forest’s injury concerns only add to that picture.
If the Premier League side are going to turn this around, the opening half hour is when it has to start. If they’re still level or behind heading into the final 15 minutes, Midtjylland’s late-game threat makes them dangerous to back against on the handicap.
This tie is not over. But the data leans toward the home side seeing it out.
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups
Midtjylland predicted lineup:
Olafsson; Erlic, Bech Sorensen, Diao; Osorio, Billing, Bravo, Castillo, Bak; Simsir, Brumado
Nottingham Forest predicted lineup:
Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus
Midtjylland Vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Although Nottingham Forest have been better on the road recently, Midtjylland have a perfect home record in the Europa League this term. The scales already tilt in their favour having beaten Forest twice this season and we fancy the Danes to complete the hat-trick on Thursday.
Prediction: Midtjylland 2-1 Nottingham Forest
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