EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best bets for the weekend’s action – and five of his six tips are odds-against selections!
Ipswich to win to nil – 11/4
Huddersfield Town v Ipswich Town
Darren Moore got a lift in his first game as Huddersfield boss on Tuesday night, with Michal Helik’s 95th-minute equalizer earning his side a point at Coventry.
It was a poor first half showing from the Terriers, but clearly Moore got the message across at half-time, because they came out in the second half with a far greater intensity and ultimately earnt their rewards.
While Moore is undoubtedly a good man manager, he’s often struggled to establish a clear style of play, and has often relied on individual quality to carry them through.
Town don’t have that luxury, especially seeing as their best players are defenders like Michał Helik rather than midfielders or forwards who can change a game.
Ipswich, meanwhile, are incredibly well coached by Kieran McKenna and, not only do they have a plan and an identity, they also know what to do if the ball gets turned over, which makes them solid when it comes to stopping defensive transitions.
The Tractor Boys stay well-organised, even in possession, while still expanding and creating space, in a way that has been so rarely seen at this level, certainly for a newly-promoted side.
Town have taken 21 points from a possible 24 so far this season, and it’s hard to see their outstanding form stopping at Hillsborough.
“Jack Taylor’s goal for Ipswich was a thunderous strike, but even more impressive from a coaching perspective because of the way they built up to that opening. The Tractor Boys are an outstanding team and with the likes of Luke Woolfenden, Leif Davis and Sam Morsy on song, I see them making it a tough first home game for Darren Moore at Huddersfield.”
Birmingham -1 handicap – 15/2
Norwich City v Birmingham City
After a positive start to the season with 10 points from their first four, performances and results have dropped for Norwich with three defeats in the last four.
It would be reasonable to remember that expectations among the Yellow Army, for the season, were conservative at best, and in some cases, almost on the floor after a troubling two years, and limited funds to rejuvenate a mentally-drained squad.
With that in mind, 13 points from the first eight, with no side in the Championship scoring more than them, and eighth spot is a perfectly acceptable opening effort, considering progress was always likely to be gradual.
On the other hand, it’s hard to avoid remembering that when David Wagner first came into Carrow Road back in January, they started like a rocket, beginning with two emphatic away wins in a run of six victories in nine, before one in the final 11.
Wagner’s high-octane style can have an instant impact when he first takes charge, or at the start of a season, but it can lose it’s stick beyond a certain point, and in recent weeks teams have found ways of cutting them open without too much difficulty.
They have to rectify that for the visit of Birmingham, who sit 10th with 12 points from their first eight.
Blues have dropped points more recently, and would have wanted more than a point from QPR, but in defeats to Watford and Preston North End they were the better side before late defensive lapses.
The back-four of Cody Drameh, Dion Sanderson, Kevin Long and Lee Buchanan has been largely consistent, though, and if they can hold firm, Birmingham will feel they have a great chance of exposing Norwich’s shortcomings, especially through the pace of Jay Stansfield.
“Norwich have found themselves exposed in recent games, and the 6-2 loss at Plymouth Argyle has left fans disgruntled. I suspect they might be at the start of a sticky run, and in Stansfield, Birmingham have a striker who can do damage.”
Double Chance: Draw/Cambridge – 13/10
Derby County v Cambridge United
Thanks to an improved second-half performance last week, Cambridge earnt a point against high-flyers Port Vale last week, and were a penalty kick away from securing all three.
Mark Bonner’s side cannot afford a repeat of their first-half showing against the Valiants when they face opponents with the Championship-level quality Derby possess, but they do now have options.
This season, the U’s have scored five goals in the final 15 minutes of matches across their first eight games, with only Oxford scoring more in that timeframe, whereas in 2022-23 it was seven all season.
Bonner has the depth to change games that aren’t going his side’s way, or simply freshen things up at crucial moments, in a way he simply didn’t have last year.
In the first half against Vale, Elias Kachunga was off his usual game, while James Brophy and Sullay Kaikai also struggled. When John-Kymani Gordon came on for the latter, however, with Danny Andrew making smart, underlapping runs, Cambridge carried a greater threat.
Fejiri Okenabirhie made a real impact from the bench, too. Previously, he’s enjoyed his best form alongside a big, selfless target man like Aaron Amadi-Holloway at Shrewsbury in 2018-19, and has acted as a quick, strong, unpredictable forward who can threaten on either foot.
Okenabirhie has lost some of his raw athleticism in the last few years, though, partly due to injury, but he’s made up for that by refining his hold-up play, which is now arguably better than that of Gassan Ahadme, despite the latter being two inches taller.
Cambridge are making progress, and they have taken points from the kind of game they would have lost narrowly last season.
There’s a chance, therefore, that the U’s capitalize on the problems at Derby, where supporters aren’t happy with the style on display.
“Derby have taken four points from their first four home games, as opposed to nine from their first four away. They may be struggling to handle the pressure that comes with playing at Pride Park, so I think a Cambridge side who are in the top 10 have a fair chance of pulling off a result.”
Leyton Orient to win – 2/1
Fleetwood Town v Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient began 2023-24 with three straight defeats, and they needed a point and clean sheet at Blackpool at the end of August to steady the ship, but performances hadn’t been far off.
The O’s played well in the first half against Portsmouth, yet conspired to lose 4-0 against what is now recognized as the best team in the league, then battled admirably with at Wycombe, where they played with 10-men for 40 minutes due to questionable refereeing, and created chances in the visit to Bloomfield Road.
As such, the subsequent return of 10 points from five games isn’t a huge surprise, internally at least, with wins over Cambridge, Exeter, and Shrewsbury.
Orient might have been fortunate not to be two down early on against the Shrews, giving their opponents two free headers, but rode their luck allowing Ruel Sotiriou to put them ahead, as goalkeeper Sol Brynn was required to secure the victory.
Nonetheless, the O’s have earnt that change of fortune based on how well they played without reward in August, and they’ve pulled into midtable at this early stage.
It’s a more precarious situation though for hosts Fleetwood, who have amassed just two points from their first eight league games.
The Trawlermen have had fitness issues this season, so new Head Coach Lee Johnson has to get his players running at the start of his reign, whilst having to deliver competitive results. It’s a tall order, even with some promising signs in the 1-1 draw at Burton last time out.
“Fleetwood have almost had to have a pre-season, in-season, because they didn’t do enough fitness work in June and July, it’s affected their performances and results in August and September. With that in mind, in-form Leyton Orient look great value at 2/1.”
Double Chance: Draw/Harrogate – 19/20
Milton Keynes Dons v Harrogate Town
Harrogate boss Simon Weaver made the brave call to drop talisman Luke Armstrong to the bench for Saturday’s 3-2 win over Salford.
Armstrong had been the subject of intense summer speculation regarding a possible move to MK Dons, and most notably Wrexham, but his move fell through in the last minute due to the latter’s failure to complete their paperwork on time.
As such, the target man is left in an awkward position of playing for the Sulphurites, at least until January, whilst everyone knows his desire was to leave.
Anyone in that situation could be forgiven for seeing their motivation drop incrementally, and while it may of course be that Armstrong has been the consummate professional and acquitted himself admirably since the collapsed deal, Weaver’s call would seem telling from the outside.
It could be a healthy thing for Harrogate and Armstrong that the team performed so well in his absence, in arguably their best performance of the season so far.
Rather than playing long to the 6’3” striker, Town developed some delightful interplay and were much harder to predict, and it allowed them to bring the pace of Kayne Ramsey, Abraham Odoh and Sam Folarin into the game more prominently than had been the case previously.
Plus, Ramsey appears to have done a lot of development in the last two years.
When the right-back was at Crewe, on loan from Southampton, in 2021-22, he looked a bit like an Olympic sprinter on a football pitch, but he appears to have since refined his all-round game, especially the link-up play.
Harrogate will feel they can impose their game on MK Dons, who were fortunate to get four wins in their first five without playing especially well, other than at Wrexham, where they won 5-3 on the opening day.
Graham Alexander’s side have since gone four without a win, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they dropped more points on Saturday.
“Harrogate put in the best performance some time last week, beating Salford 3-2 to vindicate boss Simon Weaver’s brave call to drop talisman Luke Armstrong to the bench.)”
Grimsby to keep a clean sheet – 19/5
Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Paul Hurst has managed 205 games as an EFL boss, and in those, his sides have kept 59 clean sheets – 29% of the games.
However, in the 22 league matches, following ones in which Hurst has seen his side concede three or more, they’ve kept nine clean sheets – 41% of them.
The 49-year-old prides himself on his teams being well-organised, so on the rare occasions at which they’re carved open, he’s determined to put things right.
It could be that extra emphasis is placed on defensive positional play in training, in a bid to ensure they don’t come undone again.
Last week’s 3-2 loss to Crawley will have hurt Hurst, and assistant Chris Doig, and the challenge of stabilizing defensively to shut out one of the best attacking sides in the league will appeal to them both.
The Mariners have the personnel to do it, too, because for much of the season, the centre-back pairing of Harvey Rodgers and Niall Maher has been rock solid, right-back Toby Mullarkey has impressed too, while Kamil Conteh, at the base of midfield, retains possession well, can beat the press, and is tenacious.
With Conteh around to snuff things out, in a more defensively-oriented team structure, there’s a good chance Swindon will struggle to get Dan Kemp, Jake Young rotating and interchanging to cause havoc in the way they have done previously.
“Out of the 22 times a Paul Hurst side has conceded three or more goals in a league game, they’ve kept a clean sheet in the next one on nine occasions. I think that’s what they’ll do here: Hurst and Chris Doig will almost be energized by the task of putting things right by nullifying one of the best attacking sides in the league.”
