EFL pundit Gab Sutton previews his best bets for the weekend’s action, in a reduced slate
Stevenage to win – 4/5
Stevenage v Lincoln City
Lincoln have appointed Michael Skubala as their new Head Coach this week. The former Leeds Under-21 Head Coach has come highly recommended in the industry.
The 41-year-old is expected to favour a quick, front-foot style with high-octane pressing, whilst allowing players the freedom to express their individual quality.
For the long-term, it’s an exciting fit. The Imps have a lot already in place: a strong infrastructure, a smart recruitment process and a promising squad, in a league that isn’t as ominous as it was a couple of years ago. Therefore, with the right management they could really go places.
In terms of Saturday’s game, it might be tricky for Skubala to implement his ideas in the first week. The timing might thus favour Stevenage.
The Boro have taken 28 points from 13 games against sides outside the top six. Their ability to translate that impeccable consistency shown in League Two into the higher league speaks volumes for their recruitment.
Aggressive defender Nathan Thompson, cultured centre-back Fin Burns, reliable left-back Dan Butler, gifted midfielder Louis Thompson and physical front-man Aaron Pressley have all been fantastic signings for the Hertfordshire outfit.
Furthermore, mentality monster Carl Piergianni and ball-carrier Jordan Roberts have stepped up as well as expected in defence and midfield respectively. Meanwhile, striker Jamie Reid, even better – he’s matched last season’s tally already!
“I really like the Michael Skubala appointment and think it could be a great fit in the long-term, but it’s difficult for a new Head Coach to get their ideas across in their first week, so I expect Stevenage’s fine home form to continue.”
Barrow to win – 20/21
Barrow v Crawley Town
The Bluebirds have built their Play-Off push this season on defensive solidity.
George Ray was the hero in last week’s 2-1 victory at Bradford, grabbing the late winner. Moreover, he has been imperious at the back, flanked by James Chester and Niall Canavan.
The Bluebirds boast a creative but workmanlike midfield. Alongside a strike-pairing of Emile Acquah and Dom Telford with the potential to cause problems.
Acquah is a physical, industrious type who doesn’t stop running. At 6’3”, he acts as the mobile reference point that was missed last season. Telford, meanwhile, lies among the top finishers in the league.
Pete Wild’s side are unbeaten at home, too, with 13 points from seven games, and that’s with three of the other six from the top seven all having visited Holker Street.
Barrow will feel they can be surprise promotion contenders this season. Crawley, on the other hand, have slid down the table with four points from their last six league games.
“Scott Lindsey’s doing a great job at Crawley in tough circumstances, but Pete Wild has converted League Two’s perennial strugglers into promotion contenders in the last 18 months and if Emile Acquah’s on his game, Barrow have a great chance.”
Grimsby to win – 19/10
Forest Green Rovers v Grimsby Town
Forest Green currently have a glut of senior injuries, of which around six players are likely starters.
Goalkeeper Luke Daniels is out for another two weeks with a quad injury. Likewise, defender Ryan Inniss who has a stress fracture, alongside versatile full-back Marcel Lavinier who will be sidelined for another four with a hamstring trouble.
Midfielder Reece Brown has the same injury, as does Nathan Holland. Fellow wide man Jordan Garrick is absent with a quad, while strikers Callum Morton and Matty Taylor are out of action with rolled ankle and a hamstring problem respectively. To rub salt in the wounds, counterpart Matty Stevens, is also a long-term absentee.
The above hasn’t made things easy for David Horseman. The former Southampton coach, however, has been working with one of the biggest squads in League Two, and one of the biggest budgets. Being in the bottom two with 13 points from 16 games isn’t what the club had in mind.
Visitors Grimsby, meanwhile, have enjoyed a bounce under the interim stewardship of Ben Davies and Shaun Pearson. A 1-1 FA Cup 1st Round draw at Slough and an emphatic 7-2 replay victory over the Rebels sandwiched a 3-2 league win against Morecambe.
The attack has looked far more vibrant under their guidance, and certainly in midweek, the trio of Danny Rose, Rekeil Pyke and Arthur Gnahoua rotated and interchanged delightfully.
Gavan Holohan has stepped up massively this season, too, bringing quality in midfield. While the Mariners have to fine-tune some defensive issues, they’re playing with a lot of freedom and could run riot against a patched up FGR side.
“Ben Davies and Shaun Pearson have certainly got Grimsby firing in the interim period since Paul Hurst left, and there’s no reason why Danny Rose, Rekeil Pyke and Arthur Gnahoua can’t do some damage to an injury-hit Forest Green side.”
Double Chance: Draw/Salford – 8/11
Gillingham v Salford City
Salford are hoping a subtle tactical tweak can boost their Play-Off chances.
15 points from the nine games Elliot Watt has started, after 2022-23’s star man returned from injury, suggests the deep-lying playmaker has catalysed the resurgence from Neil Wood’s side. He has, in fact, actually been a notch off last season’s levels.
As such, the Ammies continue to build around target man Matt Smith, playing diagonals into the channel for the 6’6” striker, with the likes of Matty Lund and Ryan Watson feeding off him.
In last week’s 2-1 loss to Mansfield, however, Smith peeled off to the right flank rather than the left. If he misses the header, therefore, it might fall to 6’1” right wing-back Ethan Ingram, who has an excellent spring to keep the ball in play, in comparison to his 5’10 counterpart Declan John.
This ploy might create uncertainty, too, for Gillingham centre-backs Conor Masterson and Shadrach Ogie, in terms of whether to follow Smith out and vacate their zone, or stay put and leave Scott Malone in an ariel duel.
Neil Wood’s side also have defender Theo Vassell and forward Conor McAleny recently back from injury. This will help, alongside hot prospect in Kelly N’Mai.
Hosts Gillingham, meanwhile, are undergoing a stylistic sea-change under Stephen Clemence. It can be difficult to execute in-season whilst getting the results required to stay in the promotion mix.
“Salford are in decent form, despite losing to Mansfield last time out, and that’s without star playmaker Elliot Watt hitting the heights he’s capable of. I’m not sure I agree with the Ammies being considered such big outsiders at a Gillingham side re-inventing themselves under Stephen Clemence.”
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*Odds subject to change.
