EFL pundit Gab Sutton previews his best bets for the weekend’s action, as the in-form team in sixth in League Two is 6/4 to win at a side languishing in the bottom half…
Millwall to win – 31/20
Millwall v Coventry City
The Lions go into Joe Edwards’ first home game in charge with some excellent foundations in place.
Gary Rowett had a 36% clean sheet rate in the league during his tenure with the Lions. His philosophy was a very well organised team, which allowed them to achieve four consecutive top-half finishes on a bottom-end budget.
The South Bermondsey outfit needed fresh ideas, however. What Edwards did in his opening game, a 4-0 thumping of Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough, was keep the out-of-possession principles, whilst introducing new ones in possession.
Murray Wallace started as a conventional left-back. When the team had the ball, however, he tucked into a back-three as right-back Brooke Norton-Cuffy pushed forward. Effectively, turning him and Ryan Longman into wing-backs.
In midfield, Casper de Norre and George Saville sat deep. They gave their opponents the dilemma as to whether to sit off and allow them to dictate, or press and open up space for Zian Flemming.
The Dutchman could be revitalized under Edwards, who has coached some new patterns of movement into him. Starting as a number 10 but then dropping into the left channel, as if part of a midfield three. He often drags an opposing defender with him to create space for Longman.
The strategy has helped Millwall find different angles and build play through the thirds, especially via de Norre and Saville, who pulled the strings.
Of course, that was against a team bottom of the league. However, there’s definite positives for Edwards to take into Saturday’s hosting of Coventry.
The Sky Blues ended a four-game losing streak with a goalless draw with Stoke. They arguably created the better chances in their new 4-2-3-1 system.
Mark Robins’ side were imperious defensively, restricting their opponents to two half-chances. Moreover, fashioning openings of their own for Ellis Simms, Josh Eccles and Haji Wright.
Nonetheless, if Millwall can replicate the patterns of play we saw from them at Hillsborough, they have a great chance.
“Coventry look better organised with the back-four, but the lack of invention remains, pointing to unusually poor summer recruitment, but Millwall could be revitalised under new management.”
Under 2.5 goals – 8/15
Preston North End v Cardiff City
Preston North End went into the international break off the back of successive victories over Coventry and Blackburn, which got Ryan Lowe’s side back into the top six.
The Lilywhites produced a high-intensity first half with some great play involving wing-backs Brad Potts and Liam Millar, plus dual-#8s Duane Holmes and Will Keane. They later came under more pressure in the second period.
The introduction of Mads Frökjaer-Jensen turned the game back in their favour, however. Bringing the sprinkling of genius that contributed to Liam Lindsay’s 90th-minute header, which secured a 2-1 derby win.
Lowe has at times found difficulty balancing the priority of getting the best individuals into the team, whilst maintaining the synergy and dynamic of the team. The last couple of games, however suggest he’s getting there – and all-action midfield stalwart Alan Browne is in excellent form.
Cardiff’s Play-Off hopes, by contrast, took a hit in the 3-2 home loss to Norwich just before the international break. Erol Bulut’s side had been leading in the latter stages before conceding two late goals.
The Bluebirds have a solid spine with Dimitrios Goutas forging an excellent centre-back pairing. Meanwhile, Mark McGuiness and Manolis Siopis bring tenacity in midfield.
Josh Bowler and Callum Robinson were the star men going forward against the Canaries. They could have it tough against an uncompromising North End rear-guard led by the fiercely determined Lindsay, however.
“PNE and Cardiff both have a sturdy defence and a tenacious midfield, which is why I expect chances to be at a premium in this unlikely Play-Off clash.”
Stevenage to win – 6/5
Fleetwood Town v Stevenage
Stevenage produced a so-so first half in last week’s 1-0 victory over Lincoln. Steve Evans’ double substitution at the interval, however, changed the game.
The Scot brought on Ben Thompson and Jake Forster-Caskey for Nick Freeman and Alex MacDonald, which secured the midfield. Consequently, helping Boro look after the ball better, and offering more protection for left-back Dan Butler.
The summer recruit struggled defensively in the first half. After the switches, however, he was far more solid, and continued to contribute a lot going forward.
Evans’ smart in-game management has been a factor behind the freshly-promoted Hertfordshire outfit’s stunning first half of the campaign. They fly high in fourth and with a five-point cushion in the Play-Off scramble, albeit with other teams having games in hand.
Another factor has been their record against sides outside the top six: 31 points from 15.
It’s hard to overlook that kind of reliability, even for a trip to a revitalized Fleetwood side who have taken eight points from their last four games.
As much as the Trawlermen are making progress, with winger Pheonix Patterson, sitting midfielder Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu, midfield athlete Ryan Broom and poacher Jack Marriott all in sumptuous form, their results have come against the lesser sides.
Sure, it’s four wins in 10 league games for the Fylde coast outfit under new Head Coach Lee Johnson. However, one of them came against a Cheltenham side who were without a goal, one was against youthful strugglers Reading, and another, against an Exeter outfit who were a run of seven defeats in eight.
“Fleetwood are making the progress they need to under Lee Johnson, but let’s not forget how ruthless Stevenage are against the teams below them in the table.”
Double Chance: Draw/Wigan – 4/5
Leyton Orient v Wigan Athletic
Leyton Orient suffered the disappointment of a 1-0 home loss to Lincoln in midweek.
It was perhaps especially hard to take for the O’s, in light of the original fixture having been postponed with the team winning 1-0 in the 86th minute. Owing to a supporter taking ill during the match and subsequently, sadly passing away.
The visitors didn’t agree to concede the result. As per EFL stipulations, both teams would have to. The re-match was consequently played from the start with the game goalless.
Nonetheless, Richie Wellens’ side weren’t at the level they needed to be, and were a tad narrow with Jordan Graham out for the long-term, with Dan Agyei and Theo Archibald also sidelined.
As such, the O’s currently look reliant on Idris El Mizouni for creativity. They will be hoping the on-loan Tunisian will stay in East London beyond January.
With that in mind, Wigan will feel they can nullify the hosts. Especially with news from boss Shaun Maloney that talented goalkeeper Sam Tickle will be fit to start after impressing in the 1-1 draw at Cheltenham. Defender Liam Morrison is ruled out, however.
Morrison’s absence could be compensated for by a switch to a back-three from Maloney, who’s expected to bring Omar Rekik and Kelland Watts into the XI, either side of Charlie Hughes.
The England Under-20s centre-back, though, produced another matured showing in the 1-1 draw at Cheltenham. Despite it being an undercooked team performance.
Midfielders Liam Shaw and Baba Adeeko, plus forwards Callum Lang and Stephen Humphrys are capable of far more than they produced at Whaddon Road. However, they could show their true capabilities in East London.
“Keeper Sam Tickle being available is a big plus for Wigan, who’ll be hoping to show more than they did in the draw at Cheltenham two weeks ago, while Orient could miss width in their game due to absentees – will they be able to stretch that visiting back-three?”
Barrow to win – 6/4
Colchester United v Barrow
Matthew Etherington earnt the permanent Head Coach’s job at Colchester with 10 points from four games. Moreover, the 1-1 draw with bottom side Sutton in that sequence was one they should have won, too.
Unfortunately, Etherington couldn’t quite continue that run in last week’s trip to leaders Stockport who achieved a record-equalling 12th league win in succession.
The U’s were competitive though, and had their hot hosts on the ropes in the first half, coming close through Samson Tovide’s backheel. They missed the clinical finishing of on-loan Luton striker Joe Taylor, however, who was away on international duty.
Taylor’s return will be welcomed for the visit of Barrow, but Pete Wild’s side are flying high in sixth, only two points off the automatic promotion places.
The Bluebirds have won their last five games in all competitions, and are nine unbeaten as the strike-pairing of Emile Acquah and Dom Telford continues to deliver.
Last season, Barrow were a relentless pressing side but they had 5’10 Josh Gordon typically up top. While he was a great goalscorer, he didn’t win so many physical duels.
Acquah, however, is highly industrious and doesn’t stop running. Furthermore, he also has a bigger frame and is someone the ball will stick to differently.
Telford, meanwhile, is a clinical finisher, and has four goals in just 492 minutes of football. He gives Wild’s men a ruthless streak.
“Barrow are on a real journey under Pete Wild, having won their last five games in all competitions, unbeaten in nine. I think they could get another three points in Essex, even against a Colchester side making progress under Matthew Etherington.”
Gillingham to win – 13/10
Tranmere Rovers v Gillingham
Tranmere have stabilised with a crucial four points from two relegation clashes with Forest Green and Sutton, thumping the former 3-0 at Prenton Park.
The 1-1 draw at Gander Green Lane is tinged with a sense of missed opportunity at the late equaliser conceded. Some have described Sutton as the worst team they’ve played this season, including regional non-league opponents.
Nonetheless, Rob Apter has breathed fresh hope into Rovers’ season, with the Blackpool loanee enjoying sumptuous form on the right wing with two goals in three, and a series of sparkling performances.
The latest setback for Nigel Adkins’ side, however, is that target man Luke Norris’ return to fitness was short lived. They’ll have to get by until January with Connor Jennings as an auxiliary centre-forward, acting as a reference point to facilitate Kristian Dennis’ poaching.
Visitors Gillingham, though, brought lift-off to Stephen Clemence’s reign last week with a 3-1 victory over Salford.
Ethan Coleman looks crucial to the Gills’ stylistic evolution with his tidy use of the ball at the base of midfield, and his running power, as well as that of fellow midfielders George Lapslie and Dom Jefferies.
Moreover, the Kent outfit have plenty of strength in reserve. The wide positions are probably the only ones in which Tranmere have the superior options.
“Tranmere have got themselves a welcome boost of four points from their last two games, but that’s come against fellow strugglers. Gillingham look stronger than Rovers in nine of the 11 areas of the pitch and I expect that to show on Saturday.”
EFL Weekend Preview
*Odds subject to change
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