EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action – it’s a reduced slate but he has three pokes up his sleeve…
Double Chance: Draw/Stevenage – 8/13
Blackpool v Stevenage
Stevenage will be overjoyed with their start to life in League One, taking 21 points from their first 12 league games.
Fellow promotees Leyton Orient, Northampton and Carlisle weren’t able to strengthen their squads in the same way in the January window, and are languishing in 16th, 17th and 20th respectively, whereas Boro are flying high in 4th.
46 points was enough for third-tier survival last season, and if that’s the case again, Steve Evans side already have 46% of the required tally.
Stevenage have achieved this form through being so strong at the basics: centre-back Carl Piergianni and striker Aaron Pressley win 7.8 and 10.9 aerial duels per game respectively, and they have midfielders and full-backs who are highly tenacious – they’ll either win the ball, or force opponents into a clearance or misplaced pass.
So often, the pressure against the ball either allows Jake Forster-Caskey to put his foot on the ball in the left channel and create, or the team to play in Elliott List to run in behind, like he did so well after coming off the bench to bag a brace in the 3-0 victory at Cheltenham.
There’s no expectation on Stevenage right now, which is why they could pile the pressure on Blackpool, who were much fancied before the season but currently find themselves 10th, closer in points to 19th than the Play-Off spots.
The Tangerines led by two goals at Charlton last week, but conceded twice in the last 10 minutes so what was objectively a decent result felt like two points dropped.
“Stevenage are a devilishly difficult team to win consecutive duels against, let alone a game. Steve Evans’ side are basically deploying the same style that won them promotion from League Two last season, but with better quality players.”
Cambridge United v Shrewsbury Town
Mark Bonner was frustrated with his side after Monday night’s 2-1 loss at Burton, giving away two sloppy goals as Cambridge were unable to deal with the intensity of their hosts.
That, though, was the first time in 16 league games that the U’s have lost back-to-back matches, and Bonner will be determined to deliver a response.
We could see the boss switch from his favoured 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-1-2, similar to the system deployed in the second half of last season.
This would have the advantage of freeing up Liam Bennett as a right wing-back, rather than a conventional right-back, as well as George Thomas, who might relish a more advanced role ahead of Jordan Cousins and Adam May, who made an impact after coming off the bench at Burton.
The system change would also allow Bonner to get a striker up top with Fejiri Okenabirhie, who might benefit from having a partner if Saikou Janneh came in.
With a few alterations, Cambridge are more than capable of defeating a Shrewsbury side who have underwhelmed this season, despite a respectable 13-point haul from their first 11 games.
The Shrews beat Northampton 1-0 last weekend, but they toiled to that victory and were turgid going forward, relying on defenders like Chey Dunkley to get over the line – it may not prove a sustainable blueprint…
“I reckon there’s a chance Mark Bonner changes to a back-three on Saturday, in a system change that would free up Liam Bennett and George Thomas, their two best players. Either way, they’re better than Shrewsbury, who beat Northampton 1-0 last week but remain turgid going forward.”
Port Vale v Fleetwood Town
After an initial honeymoon period under Lee Johnson, with seven points from his first four games in charge, including what the new boss described as three good performances against Burton, Leyton Orient and Cheltenham, Fleetwood may have reverted to type.
The Trawlermen were annihilated 4-1 last Saturday by Play-Off challenges Wycombe, being overran in midfield leading to a lack of creativity in central areas, which deprived in-form poacher Jack Marriott of service.
Johnson described it as a “physical and mental challenge” that proved “a step too far” for his side, who made poor decisions on the ball which he felt may have been down to fatigue, although they arguably had more of a go with 10 men, after Ben Heneghan was sent off, with the game a dead rubber.
Junior Quitirna continues to shine bright out wide, but structurally the issues from the first six weeks of the campaign are resurfacing, so Port Vale have a great chance to recapture some form.
Boss Andy Crosby is spoilt for choice in the midfield areas, where Oli Arblaster has shown huge potential on loan from Sheffield United, Funso Ojo has been arguably their best player so far, Ethan Chislett has fared better than expected in his creative role after joining from Wimbledon.
As a result, powerful runner Ben Garrity has been deployed as a second striker, where he’s top goalscorer with four, and Alfie Devine – one of the brightest teenage talents in the country on loan from Tottenham – is only on the bench.
That midfield strength could be key for the Valiants, who sit ninth despite taking just one point from their previous five.
“Port Vale have one of the best set of midfield options in League One right now, and there’s an argument to say the only thing separating them from top six sides is the want for a prolific goalscorer. I’m convinced they’re a better team than Fleetwood, despite the latter’s progress under Lee Johnson.”
Crewe Alexandra v Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere’s high-scoring start to the season continued on Saturday, in a 2-2 draw with Grimsby.
Rovers are League Two’s joint-10th top goalscorers, with wide forwards Sam Taylor and Josh Hawkes showing plenty of potential in the first 10 weeks of the campaign, while versatile midfielder Kieron Morris starred with a delightful goal to open the scoring against the Mariners.
The reason the Wirral outfit are languishing in 22nd, however, is because they have a multitude of defensive issues that have left them reliant on goalkeeper Luke McGee, another of last weekend’s top performers.
So reliable at this level previously, centre-back Tom Davies has been rash and erratic this term, but that’s partly due to a series of problems elsewhere in the team, though one of them has been solved by left-back Connor Wood finding fitness with Hull loanee Jake Leake sidelined.
Tranmere haven’t been able to find a steady centre-back partner for Davies, but Josef Yarney has struggled and Jordan Turnbull had been off-form, even before his red card in the 4-1 loss at Wimbledon.
Plus, right-back Josh Cogley is a loss the Birkenhead club haven’t replaced, thus Lee O’Connor has sometimes played in that position rather than midfield, where the team has missed his tenacity.
However, even when O’Connor does play in midfield, he doesn’t solve the lack of physicality, and playing him there involves compromises in other areas.
Cut short, Tranmere have a series of challenges standing between them and defensive solidity, so the likelihood is they could still be vulnerable at the back for the visit to Crewe.
The Railwaymen will have a chip on their shoulder after bad decisions from a referee with connections to Salford City contributed significantly to their 4-2 loss at the Peninsula Stadium – a high-scoring encounter may await…
“Crewe have only failed to score once, but kept just one clean sheet, for Tranmere, it’s three blanks and two shut-outs: four and three between them respectively across 12 games apiece. I think both teams will score!
Forest Green Rovers v Colchester United
Forest Green dropped to the bottom of League Two for the first time this season, after a sixth straight defeat.
On the one hand, there can be some sympathy for Head Coach David Horseman, who has been tasked with shaking off that losing feeling, after an embarrassing relegation from League One.
Horseman couldn’t have been clearer about what he wanted from his team in his first interview: aggressive against the ball, competing for everything in the middle third, fast in transition, and with a sprint mentality.
The only problem is, his current side look the complete opposite of that.
It seems as though owner Dale Vince and Sporting Director Allan Steele have taken Horseman because he’s highly-rated as a coach, but it’s less clear whether they’ve aligned themselves with his philosophy in terms of recruitment.
They don’t have the personnel to implement his style effectively, nor the 4-2-2-2, which seems astonishing for the biggest squad in the league.
And, after the defeat at Stockport, midfielder Charlie McCann admitted that the players aren’t doing what’s being asked of them.
Colchester might be chronically inconsistent, therefore, and produced a no-show of their own in the 3-1 loss to Morecambe, but they do have a young, exciting side oozing with potential.
If they have their day at the New Lawn, and Arthur Read and Jayden Fevrier play to their best, they could run riot.
“Forest Green are tight spot, having dropped to the foot of the table with six straight league defeats, and Colchester I think are better than the league suggests – when they play as they’re capable, they’re one of the best teams in the division.”
Walsall v Gillingham
The pressure on Walsall boss Mat Sadler has cranked up after last week’s 4-0 thrashing by bottom side Sutton leaves his side languishing in 17th.
It came after a couple of improved showings from the Saddlers, against Bradford and MK Dons, but it was a case of one step forward and two back.
Owen Evans reportedly got injured in the warm-up, but Sadler supposedly told his goalkeeper to carry on, instead of bringing in Jackson Smith, and the subsequent defensive calamity may have had something to do with that.
Plus, young defender Harry Williams was bullied by the physicality of their opponents, in the absence of the injured Priestley Farquharson.
Gillingham travel to the Banks’ Stadium managerless, as caretaker Keith Millen won’t be taking the job permanently, but victory under his watch would keep the team in the top three for an appointment, possibly, the following week.
The dilemma for the Gills is whether to appoint a manager who will play the same, direct style that contributed to the reason for sacking Neil Harris in the first place, or go for a whole stylistic sea-change in-season, and risk a period of transition while the team has an opportunity to challenge for promotion.
Nonetheless, the Kent outfit have laudable depth and will feel they can get the better of their disjointed hosts.
“Gillingham are hoping to stay in the top three ahead of next week, when they may appoint their next manager, with reported interest in Steve Bruce, who played for the club in the early ‘80s. Walsall, meanwhile, are reeling from a 4-0 humiliation at Sutton.”
