Arman Tsarukyan has spent long enough waiting around the top of the UFC lightweight division. On Saturday 19 September, he finally gets another chance to remind everyone why he is still one of the biggest threats at 155lb.
Standing across from him will be Mauricio Ruffy, a man who has finished 13 of his 14 professional wins by knockout and has wasted very little time forcing his way into the lightweight top 10.
The pair meet over five rounds at UFC 331 in Los Angeles. If you are looking for the full card, UK start times and the Van vs Pantoja rematch, our UFC 331 preview covers the wider event.
This one is all about Tsarukyan vs Ruffy. Who has the advantage, where could the fight be won, and is the favourite worth siding with?
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy Odds
Tsarukyan is a strong favourite heading into the fight.
At the time of writing, the latest BetVictor odds are:
- Arman Tsarukyan: 1/4
- Mauricio Ruffy: 3/1
Odds are subject to change.
That is a fairly wide gap for a fight between two top-seven lightweights, but Tsarukyan has already spent years competing against elite opposition.
He is currently ranked No.2 in the division, while Ruffy sits at No.7 in the latest UFC rankings.
Ruffy’s price is still worth taking seriously, though. There are not many fighters in the division who carry this much genuine one-shot danger.
Arman Tsarukyan’s Recent Form
Tsarukyan comes into UFC 331 with a 23-3 professional record and five consecutive victories. The names on that run matter.
He knocked out Beneil Dariush in just over a minute, beat Charles Oliveira by split decision at UFC 300 and most recently submitted Dan Hooker with an arm-triangle choke in November 2025.
The Oliveira result has aged particularly well. Tsarukyan spent three rounds dealing with someone who is dangerous almost everywhere on the ground without allowing the Brazilian to take over the fight.
Against Hooker, he went one better and actually found the finish.
Tsarukyan has six submission wins on his record, but his grappling is about more than chasing the neck or an arm. He is very good at deciding where a fight takes place.
Once he gets hold of an opponent, they usually have to work.
UFC statistics currently have Tsarukyan averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also absorbs just 1.80 significant strikes per minute, which says plenty about how difficult it can be to settle into a clean striking rhythm against him.
That feels important here.
Mauricio Ruffy Brings a Completely Different Threat
Ruffy does not need to win three or four rounds to ruin Tsarukyan’s night.
One clean shot might do it. The Brazilian owns a 14-2 record and an absurd 13 of those victories have come by knockout. Nine were first-round finishes.
That kind of record naturally changes how opponents approach him.
Ruffy can be patient because he knows he has the power to turn a fairly quiet round into a finish within seconds. He is dangerous when opponents overcommit, and he does not need a huge number of clean connections to make them pay.
His rise has not been completely straightforward. Benoît Saint Denis handed him a defeat, but Ruffy responded well and has since pushed himself back into contention.
Most importantly, he stopped Michael Chandler in the opening round in June.
That was the sort of victory that makes people take notice.
Tsarukyan will know exactly what happens if he gives Ruffy too much time and space to set his feet.
Can Ruffy Stop Tsarukyan’s Wrestling?
For me, this is the fight.
We already know Ruffy can hurt Tsarukyan if they spend long periods trading at range. What we do not know is how comfortable he will look if Tsarukyan refuses to give him that kind of fight.
I would be surprised if Arman turns this into a kickboxing contest for any longer than necessary.
He has enough striking to make Ruffy respect him, but the wrestling gives him a much clearer route to taking control.
Tsarukyan can shoot underneath punches, work from the body lock or drive an opponent towards the cage before attacking from there. Even when the first takedown fails, Ruffy still has to defend the next attempt.
Then the next one. That becomes tiring very quickly.
The fact this is scheduled for five rounds makes it even more interesting. Ruffy is used to putting people away early. Tsarukyan has already been through difficult fights where he has had to wrestle, scramble and make adjustments as the rounds pass.
If Ruffy stays upright and keeps finding space, he is live for the knockout throughout.
If Tsarukyan regularly gets him onto the fence or down to the mat, I think the balance begins shifting quite heavily in Arman’s favour.
Does Tsarukyan Earn a Title Shot With a Win?
He would certainly have an argument.
Tsarukyan is already the No.2-ranked lightweight and has beaten Oliveira, Dariush and Hooker during his current winning streak.
There is no official guarantee that beating Ruffy gives him the next championship opportunity, so I would be careful about calling this a confirmed title eliminator.
Still, another victory would leave very few reasonable questions about his place near the front of the queue.
For Ruffy, the opportunity is even bigger. Beating the second-ranked contender after only recently entering the top 10 would completely change his position in the division.
That is part of what makes this fight so interesting. Tsarukyan has far more to lose in terms of his existing ranking, while Ruffy can jump several steps with one big performance.
Tsarukyan vs Ruffy Prediction
My prediction is Arman Tsarukyan by submission.
I understand why the straight Tsarukyan price is short, but I actually think the method of victory is where this fight becomes more interesting.
Ruffy is most dangerous early. Tsarukyan will have to respect that, particularly when closing the distance, because one lazy entry against a striker with 13 knockout wins could be enough to end the fight.
If he gets through those early exchanges, though, I think his wrestling starts changing things.
I expect Tsarukyan to make Ruffy defend repeatedly rather than hunting one huge takedown. Get him working against the fence, force scrambles, make him carry weight and keep returning to the grappling whenever the fight reaches open space. That is when I can see the submission appearing.
Tsarukyan showed against Hooker that he is more than happy to turn a strong grappling position into a finish, eventually locking up an arm-triangle in the second round. He has also won by rear-naked choke, guillotine and anaconda choke during his career, so there are several routes available if Ruffy starts giving up positions. Our guide to the different types of UFC submissions explains how those finishes work.
I would not want Tsarukyan standing in front of Ruffy for 25 minutes. Fortunately for him, I do not think that is the fight he will choose.
Ruffy probably has his best chance in the opening couple of rounds. The longer it goes and the more grappling he is forced to deal with, the more I favour Arman.
Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan to win by submission.
For more previews, fighter news and analysis throughout the year, visit the BetVictor UFC and MMA hub.
